bluedawgs said:
JWeinCom said: It's rather unlikely that the PS4 will be up YOY. This year saw a hardware revision, price cuts and bundles, a major new peripheral, and an entirely new model. Software lineup for 2017 is more or less similar to 2016. Red Dead is the only thing that's bigger than the stuff they had last year. With all that in mind, sales were essentially flat. Moreover, there's just a point of diminishing returns. The more people that have a PS4, the less people there are to buy one. Unless there is something major, and by major I don't mean a sequel to a game that appeals to their already established market, sales are going to start declining. To combine that, we have Scorpio and Switch. Scorpio is a pretty direct competitor, especially among people who may be upgrading specifically because they're buying a new 4K TV. Switch isn't as direct of a competitor, but there is still a very sizeable overlap. There are a lot of kids and young teens with a PS4, and a lot of the casual yearly madden types of players who could wind up with a Switch. I can't say for sure whether the Switch will compete in a real way for at least another week, but people who don't think casual appeal is part of the PS4's success are very wrong. I don't mean to downplay the PS4's success, because it's obviously doing very well, but people are expecting a really unrealistic sales curve. Without a Kinect like situation, there's no reason to think the PS4 will be up at all YOY, and certainly not big time. We've likely seen the peak already. |
Why do you mention a peripheral (VR) as a reason PS4 should have done better? it just released in October, it just began its lifecycle. If its gonna sell any consoles it will do it this year or next year lol
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Kinect released in early november and pushed XBox 360 sales up by 33% that year. If it was going to be a major seller, we should have seen some effect this year.
Oneeee-Chan!!! said:
JWeinCom said: It's rather unlikely that the PS4 will be up YOY. This year saw a hardware revision, price cuts and bundles, a major new peripheral, and an entirely new model. Software lineup for 2017 is more or less similar to 2016. Red Dead is the only thing that's bigger than the stuff they had last year. With all that in mind, sales were essentially flat. Moreover, there's just a point of diminishing returns. The more people that have a PS4, the less people there are to buy one. Unless there is something major, and by major I don't mean a sequel to a game that appeals to their already established market, sales are going to start declining. To combine that, we have Scorpio and Switch. Scorpio is a pretty direct competitor, especially among people who may be upgrading specifically because they're buying a new 4K TV. Switch isn't as direct of a competitor, but there is still a very sizeable overlap. There are a lot of kids and young teens with a PS4, and a lot of the casual yearly madden types of players who could wind up with a Switch. I can't say for sure whether the Switch will compete in a real way for at least another week, but people who don't think casual appeal is part of the PS4's success are very wrong. I don't mean to downplay the PS4's success, because it's obviously doing very well, but people are expecting a really unrealistic sales curve. Without a Kinect like situation, there's no reason to think the PS4 will be up at all YOY, and certainly not big time. We've likely seen the peak already. |
Your logic mean XB1 down YoY in 2017 .
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No, not really. We know less about the Scorpio and how it will perform or be marketed. Depending on how the Scorpio is, it may be a better upgrade choice for the expanding 4K market. There is the potential for Hololens in 2017. Also, the XBox One install base is about half the PS4's, which means more potential customers.
Most importantly though, XBox doesn't have to sell nearly as much to be up YOY. It will only have to sell about 10 million or so to accomplish that, and Sony will have to nearly double it. Microsoft just has to eat away a bit at Sony's marketshare, while Sony really has to expand their market.
All that being said, I think that XBox will be down YOY, but it has more of a chance to be up.