| Train wreck said: The only thing that can prevent the PS4 from being up YOY is the PS4 itself. As long as the game library is there and there is an attractive new price it'll be fine (flat or +yoy) for 2017. It's a GT year so that should up the baseline in Europe, I think its more of a system seller than Uncharted. |
I think people are overestimating GT at this point, the series has been getting a lot of flack from fans for being behind on tech, not fixing audio, using really dated models, removing content, poor multiplayer etc. Metascore has fallen with each installment and sales have gone down ever since GT3, to the point where GT6 is set to sell about 1/4 of GT3, on about 60-65% of the installed base, the series has clearly lost traction. The sales down from GT5 are more than halved as well, this is extremely telling of the waning relevance of the series.
Meanwhile, Uncharted has remained in the 90's on metacritic, with UC4 beating UC3 (93 vs 92) and sales of the series has been steadily climbing, to the point where UC4 has officially beat UC3's sales by about 2 million already, on a significantly smaller installed base at that. The Uncharted series has been steadily growing and has also kept its favor with fans and critics alike.
In other words; it's very, very unlikely that GT is a bigger system seller than UC, or that it's even close to as relevant today as the UC series. Discounting GT, what else will help increase sales in 2017? Final Fantasy, Metal Gear Solid, Uncharted, PSVR, Slim, Pro and price cuts didn't help make 2016 as fantastic as many thought, I was considered partly insane for my "conservative" year end prediction and my refusal to "accept" that the PS4 would sell 20 million or more for the CY.
Like I said in another post; there's no secret sauce that will suddenly kickstart PS4 sales and drive them higher, most, if not all, signs point towards either more or less flat or slightly down yoy. If it drops, which it well might, I don't think it'll be a huge drop, perhaps in the 5-7% range or so. There's really no logical reason to think that the PS4 will sell more in 2017 at this point, let's not forget that it has had some really paltry competition and still failed to meet many expectations people have in here. If it hasn't flexed its muscles and showed signs of being a 20 million + a year console, it won't suddenly become that in its 4th year on the market, it appears to have flipped the PS3's curve and gone for a good start with an early but smaller decline, whereas the PS3 started slow and then basically grew for 6 years straight. For some perspective; the PS4's best year so far is only about 15-20% better than the PS3's peak year.
