The thing is supposed replace both Nintendo's handheld market and home console market. So it needs to do equal or better numbers to 3DS plus Wii U sales to be considered a success.

And I think it can pull it off. It's going to get at least double the games of a usual Nintendo platform. I think that is going to help exponentially.

Again. Being realistic is important here. If Apple were to replace ipads and iphones with something in between, it'd be unrealistic for the new product to do better than the two, especially if their numbers were down year after year. So a huge success would be to do 80% of that.

Also, keep in mind that people kept buying several 3ds' and that most likely won't be the case with NS. But since software sales matter more than hardware, it wouldn't be that bad if it sold less units but just as much software.

my thoughts are roughly as follows

~70M ltd if they make several mistakes (some already happened, but not irreversible)
~110M ltd if they make few or "0" mistakes
Below PS4 in either scenario

Btw don't expect Japan to forget the 3DS overnight and jump on the Switchwagon, they'll keep preferring a cheaper, true portable with established library. It's Japan..they don't transition as fast as most other countries, always been like that afaik

I think its going to do N64 numbers 32-35m or so. I think thats very plausible.

Not amazing,but enough to get them back on track from low selling generations like Wii U and GC

You think PS4 will sell +110 million?

I don't know about 100m. Nintendo basically gave up on the core gamer market and the home console business by creating a gaming tablet that's underpowered compared to the PS4/XB1 and probably not cheap enough to justify that flaw. Unless they have some kind of grand strategy to court casuals and kids away from tablets/smartphones with free/cheap games, I can't see the NS reaching 100m units.

110 million or more for the PS4? That's really quite optimistic. Are you expecting the Pro to make the PS4 go into overdrive or something?

NO way it will reach 100m.

The 3ds is struggling and ts library is amazing.

Don't forget the 3DS also has had lots of limited editions and new models. I think I own like 14 3DS and 2DS myself combined, maybe even more lost count. Point I am making is this, I am not the only one who got a lot of 3DS consoles because of the limited edition factor.

That 60million number is probably closer to HALF unique users. Unless Nintendo goes batshit crazy with limited editions that actually look good of Switch, the I can see it maybe doing 30million

And 100 million for the switch isnt optimistic? Its a certainty ps4 will surpass 100 million and has a good chance to reach 110 million 

Just one question, what makes you think people who bought multiple versions on 3DS wont do the same for Switch?

Nintendo always releases a few revisions of their handhelds (GBA-2001, GBA SP-2003, DS-2004, GBA Micro-2005, DS Lite-2006, DSi-2008, DSi XL-2009, 3DS-2011, 3DS XL-2012, 2DS-2013, New 3DS/XL-2014).

There is no reason to think Switch wont also get a few revisions down the line, whether that be a bigger version, a smaller version or a slightly more powerful version with added features.