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my thoughts are roughly as follows

~70M ltd if they make several mistakes (some already happened, but not irreversible)
~110M ltd if they make few or "0" mistakes
Below PS4 in either scenario

Btw don't expect Japan to forget the 3DS overnight and jump on the Switchwagon, they'll keep preferring a cheaper, true portable with established library. It's Japan..they don't transition as fast as most other countries, always been like that afaik