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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - (Update: 100 million mark reached!)Prediction:Switch will go on to sell 100+ million units

well it might,have to know more before i can say,they are not merging their handhelds with this are they,so doubtful

looks interesting though



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RolStoppable said:
Asedebck said:

35 million at best. Its pretty save to say that.
The Nvidia Tegra k1 and even the x1 (which isnt evend designed for mobile usage) both are already was inferior to the market leading ships made by Apple, Samsung and Snapdragon. Just check those benchmarks.

So EVEN if the Switch concept will work, Android and Apple will adopt very very soon and will deliver similar solutions (controller addons) to their smartphones and tablets. So people will be able to play skyrim on an iPhone as well (third party obviosly will also port those games to that huge install bases when they are doing a arm port for the switch anyway and its beeing succesfull).

So in the end people will just use their phones which are often as capable as the switch. In some years even WAY more capable.
Only reason to get the switch will be nintendos first party games. Only reason to get the wii u was that as well. We all know how that turned out.

 

I predict 25 mio units sold Lifetime.

Maybe I should make a prediction as well:

I don't like the way you think, so I'll get you banned real hard before this week is over.

His prediction is too negative.

The  Switch will take the place of the Wii U and 3DS(as it seems), both sold 73-75+ total and the 3DS will still sell a lot before of Switch's launch. There is really no reason for more than half of Nintendo's fanbase not purchase a Nintendo console.

If the Swich has 3 party support, I expect it to sell well above 100 millions, if  does not, has the support a little over 80 millions.



Faelco said:
RolStoppable said:

That number wouldn't be a huge success.

It would put them back to the second position on the market, so yes, it would be. Even more if you consider that they don't want to kill the 3DS and are planning to release another handheld. Unless the Switch is really cheap, I don't think they'll even get to 50M. Or maybe if you consider the really late sales post-mortem (the PS3 is getting closer to the 90M this way...).

What Rol means is that, the Switch is basically two systems as one.So if it sells somewhat lower than the Wii U and 3DS combined, its not going to be a great number.Selling 60 millions wouldnt be bad by any strench, but wouldnt be great either.



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1

Nautilus said:
Faelco said:

It would put them back to the second position on the market, so yes, it would be. Even more if you consider that they don't want to kill the 3DS and are planning to release another handheld. Unless the Switch is really cheap, I don't think they'll even get to 50M. Or maybe if you consider the really late sales post-mortem (the PS3 is getting closer to the 90M this way...).

What Rol means is that, the Switch is basically two systems as one.So if it sells somewhat lower than the Wii U and 3DS combined, its not going to be a great number.Selling 60 millions wouldnt be bad by any strench, but wouldnt be great either.

Someone else already said that a lot of Wii U owners most likely own a 3DS too, so the addition doesn't work.

 

And why should it work? The DS sold twice as much as the 3DS. The Wii sold more than 5 times what the Wii U did. The PS2 sold twice as much as the PS3. According to your reasoning, it shouldn't be possible. But it doesn't work that way, the audience is not a huge bundle moving as the companies want. Especially when you make something between 2 markets, you most likely won't take both of the audiences entirely, except if your product is the perfect hybrid. And the Switch doesn't seem to be. 

And like I said, the 3DS is far from dead, I expect a rather weak percentage of 3DS>Switch transition. Part of them will keep the 3DS or its possible successor, and another part will go to mobile/tablet gaming. 



I doubt it, it may hit in the range of 40 ~ 60mil if they play their cards perfectly. I doubt people will simply drop the PS4/XB1 (which is where the casual gamers are at) to run over to grab Nintendo Switches and I don't think this has the appeal of the Wii that drew the casuals in droves to buy it.



"Trick shot? The trick is NOT to get shot." - Lucian

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Faelco said:
Nautilus said:

What Rol means is that, the Switch is basically two systems as one.So if it sells somewhat lower than the Wii U and 3DS combined, its not going to be a great number.Selling 60 millions wouldnt be bad by any strench, but wouldnt be great either.

Someone else already said that a lot of Wii U owners most likely own a 3DS too, so the addition doesn't work.

 

And why should it work? The DS sold twice as much as the 3DS. The Wii sold more than 5 times what the Wii U did. The PS2 sold twice as much as the PS3. According to your reasoning, it shouldn't be possible. But it doesn't work that way, the audience is not a huge bundle moving as the companies want. Especially when you make something between 2 markets, you most likely won't take both of the audiences entirely, except if your product is the perfect hybrid. And the Switch doesn't seem to be. 

And like I said, the 3DS is far from dead, I expect a rather weak percentage of 3DS>Switch transition. Part of them will keep the 3DS or its possible successor, and another part will go to mobile/tablet gaming. 

Read my initial post.I dont base my prediction solely that it will atract the 3DS+Wii U crowd to the Switch.I mean, it looks like it will have the chance of doing that(even if just brings about 70% of that audience), and that is especially true to Nintendo fans, as most of them seems excited by the device, but my reasoning goes beyond that.It will bring new people in because of reasons already posted.Its not like Nintendo will just market that to just its fans, because without seeking new customers, the fanbase will simply shrink over time.



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1

Nintendo is trying really hard to separate it self from other home console but the specs are still unknown so not sure about memory card or onboard memory or what will be the storage. Also the cartridge system is something I am not sure about. However I am giving them the benefit of doubt that it is better than their previous 2 attempts like Wii and Wii U but honestly that is not saying much.

If it comes with something like onboard 500gb storage for digital games for Wii U and older support of Nintendo games for something like 250$ then there is a hope it will not bomb



 

thismeintiel said:
Ryng_Tolu said:

The first impression from internet looks really good. It's nowhere close to what was the Wii U back in 2011, where people didn't even knew was a new console... the youtube trailer is now at over 15 million views in only 3 days, already half of PS4 in almost 4 years.

You do realize that the PS4 got the VAST majority of those views in the first few days, or a week, right?  So, the 4 years things doesn't really mean anything.

So are you saying it won't surpass PS4 total views?



The thing is going to get a lot of games.

I think people underestimate what Nintendo's software pipeline can put out when it's unified into one platform. And it's going to have pokemon.

There is no doubt in my mind that it's going to sell like a Nintendo handheld, maybe even better.



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RolStoppable said:
Slimebeast said:

What? What is this bored looking woman supposed to depict?

Is 59 million in rufly five years unrealistic or that wouldn't be considered a huge success?

That number wouldn't be a huge success.

We also need to be a little realistic here and it's not fun if people set up their expectations too high and it becomes almost impossible to meet them.