You do realize only a small slice of money comes to Nintendo via Pokemon Go, right?  I'm not disputing the success but it's not 1) an established pattern, 2) free and thus not guaranteed to bring in consistent revenue for a long period, and 3) not even made by Nintendo.  We'll have to wait and see, but Mario Run is a premium mobile game, so it's not going to a guarantee the way PoGo was with its freemium model.  Pokemon is a lock to make them hundreds of millions of dollars with ease and thanks to PoGo, has generated sales for the N3DS hardware as well.  

And Mobile does have power.  It is also fickle, unstable, and does not favor premium games at all.  

As for your prediction, I HIGHLY doubt numbers like that.  40 to 50x would be over 500million people.  Pokemon Go, which has a far greater degree of "phenomenon"-ness with it's social aspects, has not even come close to that figure in downloads.  And it's free to boot.  I mean, the top Paid app on Android is Minecraft with a modest 10 million.  In short, there's no way in hell that over 500million people will get a premium mobile game.  If Mario had THAT kind of brand power, Nitendo would want for nothing cause that's absurd.  It might cross a hundred million in the long run.  MAYBE.  But not on Apple alone and not within the Holidays alone.  Sun and Moon will make more money for Nintendo this holiday than Super Mario Run, of that I am confident.  

Actualy "analysts predict" that Super Mario Run could have 1.5b downloads. Also Super Mario Run is free to play game with in-app purchases.

Pokemon GO already topped 500m downloads. Mario has better brand recognition and it's much more familiar face WW than Pokemon.

No, Super Mario Run is a premium game, not free-to-play.  You can download and play a piece as a demo but then you have a one-off purchase.  That's the huge divide between it and all other successful runners.

I don't know how much more recognizable Mario is than Pikachu (Pokemon).  There's not a Mario balloon in the Macy's Day Parade :P.  And Pokemon has movies and the anime and the games and toys.  I would say they're pretty even, though more people have nostalgic gaming memories with Mario sure.  But that alone can't make much difference because at most you are looking at what, 100 million people with Mario memories if we are REALLY generous?  That's 1/15 of that 1.5 billion figure.  So 1.4 billion need to be brought in by something else.  

Also, ONE analyst is saying that and I frankly find it very hillarious.  If he includes downloads of the free demo sure.  Sales?  No way, I'll believe it when I see it.  

From Wiki: "The game will be free-to-play with in-app purchases, similar to Nintendo previous mobile game Miitomo".  Main point about game is that you can downloaded for free, that make it free to play.

Pokemon is extremely popular just in Japan and have good popularity in US, Mario is popular WW and way more famous character than Pikachu (its easily most popular gaming character ever). Just look at sales numbers of Mario games and Pokemon games (Mario games were sold around 530m while Pokemon around 280m), you realise that with Mario we have 2D Mario games, 3D Mario games, Mario Kart, Smash Bros, Mario Party, Paper Mario, Mario and Lugi, Mario Sports...with Pokemon you just have mostly just Pokemon games, Mario has much more wider appearance WW than Pokemon, we even had Mario announcing Japan Olympic games not Pikachu.

You missing point, its not only about how many people have memories with Mario, but everybody heard about Mario and good number of people will definitely at least try free Super Mario Run game on iOS and Android.

Of Course analysts count on downloads not sales, you cant count sales because game have in game purchases.

And from an article from CNET:  

What will it cost?

The game will be free to download and play, at least for a little while. You'll then have to make a one-off in-app payment to access the full game. This is why the game's iTunespage notes that it "offers in-app payments." As Nintendo noted in an email to TouchArcade, "iOS users will be able to download and enjoy a portion of Super Mario Run for free and will be able to enjoy all of the game content available in this release after paying a set purchase price. More details will be disclosed at a later date."

That's not free to play, that's a premium game with a single, set purchase price that happens to have a demo version.  

Also, yeah, Mario has sold that many...if you look up just "Mario" and count all the games that came out regardless of whether they be remasters, re-releases, or minor spinoffs only tangentially related to Mario.  But fine, let us look at that.  Mario has 119 games with recorded sales vs Pokemon's 49.  That's less than half the number, which means the average sales per release are not so different.  And Pokemon has maintained a pretty high level of sales standards for it's main entries while Mario's have gone up and down.  And my point was not "Pikachu is SO much more popular" but that the two are pretty close.  Everyone and their grandma recognizes Pikachu or Mario.  The whole brand recognition argument for Mario selling over a billion on mobile is just unfounded is what I am getting at.  

And lastly, yes they CAN count sales because there's only *one* "in app purchase," and that is the purchase of the game.  A single flat purchase.  So no, downloads and sales are two separate things in the Mario Runner scenario.  

"The game will be free to download and play, at least for a little while." "iOS users will be able to download and enjoy a portion of Super Mario Run for free".

Fact that you can play it for free even for while means you can download for free and try it, and that's point, if people download it and try definatly some people will pay price for full game.

Much higher numbers of games and higher sales numbers means that Mario has much more appealing like gaming character than Pikachu, and thats why Mario way more popular gaming character WW than Pikachu. For instance, I am from Europe and im my country only same people known for Pikachu on Pokemon, but everybody knows for Mario, also personaly I never treyed any Pokemon game and I am huge Nintendo fan from N64. Also did you saw annucment of Super Mario Run at Apple conference, it was huge, whole internet talked about that Mario coming on iOS, because Mario is biggest gaming character in world not Pikachu. Why Japanese decides that Mario announced next Olympic games, because Maria is one most Japanese most recognised brand in world not Pikachu.

Nobody said Mario Run will sell billions of copies (but definitely will sell around few hundred millions), analyst talked about 1.5 of downloads. And yes, hundred of milions will downlod Mario Run just to try beacuse brand recognition and love for Mario offcourse. You realise that Sonic Dash have 200m downloads, and Mario is incompatible much bigger in any possible way.

Of Course that downloads and sales are two separate scenario in Mario Run, lol. I can download game and try it for free, thats download not sale.

You do realize only a small slice of money comes to Nintendo via Pokemon Go, right?  I'm not disputing the success but it's not 1) an established pattern, 2) free and thus not guaranteed to bring in consistent revenue for a long period, and 3) not even made by Nintendo.  We'll have to wait and see, but Mario Run is a premium mobile game, so it's not going to a guarantee the way PoGo was with its freemium model.  Pokemon is a lock to make them hundreds of millions of dollars with ease and thanks to PoGo, has generated sales for the N3DS hardware as well.  

And Mobile does have power.  It is also fickle, unstable, and does not favor premium games at all.  

As for your prediction, I HIGHLY doubt numbers like that.  40 to 50x would be over 500million people.  Pokemon Go, which has a far greater degree of "phenomenon"-ness with it's social aspects, has not even come close to that figure in downloads.  And it's free to boot.  I mean, the top Paid app on Android is Minecraft with a modest 10 million.  In short, there's no way in hell that over 500million people will get a premium mobile game.  If Mario had THAT kind of brand power, Nitendo would want for nothing cause that's absurd.  It might cross a hundred million in the long run.  MAYBE.  But not on Apple alone and not within the Holidays alone.  Sun and Moon will make more money for Nintendo this holiday than Super Mario Run, of that I am confident.