Miyamotoo said:
Nuvendil said:
You do realize only a small slice of money comes to Nintendo via Pokemon Go, right? I'm not disputing the success but it's not 1) an established pattern, 2) free and thus not guaranteed to bring in consistent revenue for a long period, and 3) not even made by Nintendo. We'll have to wait and see, but Mario Run is a premium mobile game, so it's not going to a guarantee the way PoGo was with its freemium model. Pokemon is a lock to make them hundreds of millions of dollars with ease and thanks to PoGo, has generated sales for the N3DS hardware as well.
And Mobile does have power. It is also fickle, unstable, and does not favor premium games at all.
As for your prediction, I HIGHLY doubt numbers like that. 40 to 50x would be over 500million people. Pokemon Go, which has a far greater degree of "phenomenon"-ness with it's social aspects, has not even come close to that figure in downloads. And it's free to boot. I mean, the top Paid app on Android is Minecraft with a modest 10 million. In short, there's no way in hell that over 500million people will get a premium mobile game. If Mario had THAT kind of brand power, Nitendo would want for nothing cause that's absurd. It might cross a hundred million in the long run. MAYBE. But not on Apple alone and not within the Holidays alone. Sun and Moon will make more money for Nintendo this holiday than Super Mario Run, of that I am confident.
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Actualy "analysts predict" that Super Mario Run could have 1.5b downloads. Also Super Mario Run is free to play game with in-app purchases.
Pokemon GO already topped 500m downloads. Mario has better brand recognition and it's much more familiar face WW than Pokemon.
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Comparing whether Pokemon or Mario is more widely known is irrelevant in this case because it was the AR aspect of Go that made it a phenomenon. Sure it needed a known brand name to really gain traction, but at the end of the day it didn't rely on the Pokemon name to become such a big hit. SMR however will be almost exclusively relying on the Mario name to become a hit. And I'm sure it will be very big, however I have high doubts about a Go type of success for it. Maybe something more like 400-500m downloads lifetime than 1.5b.
