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Miyamotoo on 16 September 2016
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Nuvendil said:
Miyamotoo said:

Actualy "analysts predict" that Super Mario Run could have 1.5b downloads. Also Super Mario Run is free to play game with in-app purchases.

Pokemon GO already topped 500m downloads. Mario has better brand recognition and it's much more familiar face WW than Pokemon.

No, Super Mario Run is a premium game, not free-to-play.  You can download and play a piece as a demo but then you have a one-off purchase.  That's the huge divide between it and all other successful runners.

I don't know how much more recognizable Mario is than Pikachu (Pokemon).  There's not a Mario balloon in the Macy's Day Parade :P.  And Pokemon has movies and the anime and the games and toys.  I would say they're pretty even, though more people have nostalgic gaming memories with Mario sure.  But that alone can't make much difference because at most you are looking at what, 100 million people with Mario memories if we are REALLY generous?  That's 1/15 of that 1.5 billion figure.  So 1.4 billion need to be brought in by something else.  

Also, ONE analyst is saying that and I frankly find it very hillarious.  If he includes downloads of the free demo sure.  Sales?  No way, I'll believe it when I see it.  

From Wiki: "The game will be free-to-play with in-app purchases, similar to Nintendo previous mobile game Miitomo".  Main point about game is that you can downloaded for free, that make it free to play.

Pokemon is extremely popular just in Japan and have good popularity in US, Mario is popular WW and way more famous character than Pikachu (its easily most popular gaming character ever). Just look at sales numbers of Mario games and Pokemon games (Mario games were sold around 530m while Pokemon around 280m), you realise that with Mario we have 2D Mario games, 3D Mario games, Mario Kart, Smash Bros, Mario Party, Paper Mario, Mario and Lugi, Mario Sports...with Pokemon you just have mostly just Pokemon games, Mario has much more wider appearance WW than Pokemon, we even had Mario announcing Japan Olympic games not Pikachu.

You missing point, its not only about how many people have memories with Mario, but everybody heard about Mario and good number of people will definitely at least try free Super Mario Run game on iOS and Android.

Of Course analysts count on downloads not sales, you cant count sales because game have in game purchases.