it's an opinion piece. The guy doesn't have any more info than we do.

He makes good points, that march release is just plain stupid, and the non-communication on the NX is just hurting it in the long run.

After the WiiU, I thought that Nintendo could not be more of a mess, I was wrong.

How so? The only argument I can see is certain people saying "they need to announce months and months in advance."

There's not any evidence to suggest a long runway between the unveiling and launch has any advantage over a much shorter runway. On the contrary, there is plenty of evidence to suggest unveiling close to the launch date increases sales success, that way the hype vehicle doesn't run out of fuel on the long runway. To the general public, an announcement now will have the same boom as one any time later, and in fact, there is good data to suggest that unveiling closer to launch is a much more successful strategy: see the mobile industry's phones, tablets, wearables, software, etc...

Had Nintendo unveiled NX at or before E3, it would definitely be old news by the end of the year. The hype would die down as people got more interested in newer products prior to the NX launch. Then it would release with a fizzle instead of a boom. If it releases with a boom, then the excited fans who bought it will be by far the loudest people talking about it, and keep the hype-jets flying.

While I have no doubt Mario Run will be a success on some level, I would say Sun and Moon is probably the bigger part of Nintendo's holiday strategy since it's more tried and tested and trending very, very well in preorders.  

Pokemon Go is the biggest thing related to Nintendo since Wii Sports. 

Mobile has a power their traditional cookie cutter stuff (and yes that includes even the "regular" Pokemon games) cannot reach. 

Super Mario Run will almost certainly be played by as many as 40-50x more people than the 3DS Pokemon games. 

Maybe they are so surprised with Pokemon Go that they decided to suspend all plans till they figure it out how much money are they sitting on right now.

Safe to say GO and Run already secured to them a healthy financial year. So, yes, I guess we will not hear about the NX for a while.

Actualy he doenst make any good point.

In 2016/2017 you dont need 1-2 year to revile your console before launch, around 6 months is more than enuf, actualy revile it sooner could be contra productive with XboxOne S, PS4 Slim, PS4 Pro, Scorpio.

March is not act stupid if they didn't had launch lineup ready for holiday season and from bussines point if they can't wait another whole year without new hardware (Wii U is dead for qute time now). And what exactly with NX tells you that is a mess!?

You do realize only a small slice of money comes to Nintendo via Pokemon Go, right?  I'm not disputing the success but it's not 1) an established pattern, 2) free and thus not guaranteed to bring in consistent revenue for a long period, and 3) not even made by Nintendo.  We'll have to wait and see, but Mario Run is a premium mobile game, so it's not going to a guarantee the way PoGo was with its freemium model.  Pokemon is a lock to make them hundreds of millions of dollars with ease and thanks to PoGo, has generated sales for the N3DS hardware as well.  

And Mobile does have power.  It is also fickle, unstable, and does not favor premium games at all.  

As for your prediction, I HIGHLY doubt numbers like that.  40 to 50x would be over 500million people.  Pokemon Go, which has a far greater degree of "phenomenon"-ness with it's social aspects, has not even come close to that figure in downloads.  And it's free to boot.  I mean, the top Paid app on Android is Minecraft with a modest 10 million.  In short, there's no way in hell that over 500million people will get a premium mobile game.  If Mario had THAT kind of brand power, Nitendo would want for nothing cause that's absurd.  It might cross a hundred million in the long run.  MAYBE.  But not on Apple alone and not within the Holidays alone.  Sun and Moon will make more money for Nintendo this holiday than Super Mario Run, of that I am confident.  

Pretty sure Pokemon Go has 500 million downloads:

http://www.polygon.com/pokemon-go/2016/9/7/12836898/pokemon-go-downloads-500-million

I can see Mario getting 250 million-500 million free downloads, how many of those people pay for the full game is an open question. 

I think your Minecraft number is low too, Minecraft has 100 million+ sales, and it looks like 40% of that is from mobile platforms, that would be 40+ million. 

Huh, I looked around for that figure but didn't see that.  The wording is a bit spurious but hey, it's at least a lot closer than I thought.

I have no doubt the demo will be downloaded a lot.  But how many will go for the full version?  Even with a demo, 500 million in sales for a premium game on mobile would be unheard of.  Even more absurdly unheard of than the PoGo success.  

Actualy "analysts predict" that Super Mario Run could have 1.5b downloads. Also Super Mario Run is free to play game with in-app purchases.

Pokemon GO already topped 500m downloads. Mario has better brand recognition and it's much more familiar face WW than Pokemon.