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Soundwave on 16 September 2016
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Nuvendil said:
Soundwave said:

Pokemon Go is the biggest thing related to Nintendo since Wii Sports. 

Mobile has a power their traditional cookie cutter stuff (and yes that includes even the "regular" Pokemon games) cannot reach. 

Super Mario Run will almost certainly be played by as many as 40-50x more people than the 3DS Pokemon games. 

You do realize only a small slice of money comes to Nintendo via Pokemon Go, right?  I'm not disputing the success but it's not 1) an established pattern, 2) free and thus not guaranteed to bring in consistent revenue for a long period, and 3) not even made by Nintendo.  We'll have to wait and see, but Mario Run is a premium mobile game, so it's not going to a guarantee the way PoGo was with its freemium model.  Pokemon is a lock to make them hundreds of millions of dollars with ease and thanks to PoGo, has generated sales for the N3DS hardware as well.  

And Mobile does have power.  It is also fickle, unstable, and does not favor premium games at all.  

As for your prediction, I HIGHLY doubt numbers like that.  40 to 50x would be over 500million people.  Pokemon Go, which has a far greater degree of "phenomenon"-ness with it's social aspects, has not even come close to that figure in downloads.  And it's free to boot.  I mean, the top Paid app on Android is Minecraft with a modest 10 million.  In short, there's no way in hell that over 500million people will get a premium mobile game.  If Mario had THAT kind of brand power, Nitendo would want for nothing cause that's absurd.  It might cross a hundred million in the long run.  MAYBE.  But not on Apple alone and not within the Holidays alone.  Sun and Moon will make more money for Nintendo this holiday than Super Mario Run, of that I am confident.  

Pretty sure Pokemon Go has 500 million downloads:

http://www.polygon.com/pokemon-go/2016/9/7/12836898/pokemon-go-downloads-500-million

I can see Mario getting 250 million-500 million free downloads, how many of those people pay for the full game is an open question. 

I think your Minecraft number is low too, Minecraft has 100 million+ sales, and it looks like 40% of that is from mobile platforms, that would be 40+ million.