Miyamotoo said:
Nuvendil said:
You do realize only a small slice of money comes to Nintendo via Pokemon Go, right? I'm not disputing the success but it's not 1) an established pattern, 2) free and thus not guaranteed to bring in consistent revenue for a long period, and 3) not even made by Nintendo. We'll have to wait and see, but Mario Run is a premium mobile game, so it's not going to a guarantee the way PoGo was with its freemium model. Pokemon is a lock to make them hundreds of millions of dollars with ease and thanks to PoGo, has generated sales for the N3DS hardware as well.
And Mobile does have power. It is also fickle, unstable, and does not favor premium games at all.
As for your prediction, I HIGHLY doubt numbers like that. 40 to 50x would be over 500million people. Pokemon Go, which has a far greater degree of "phenomenon"-ness with it's social aspects, has not even come close to that figure in downloads. And it's free to boot. I mean, the top Paid app on Android is Minecraft with a modest 10 million. In short, there's no way in hell that over 500million people will get a premium mobile game. If Mario had THAT kind of brand power, Nitendo would want for nothing cause that's absurd. It might cross a hundred million in the long run. MAYBE. But not on Apple alone and not within the Holidays alone. Sun and Moon will make more money for Nintendo this holiday than Super Mario Run, of that I am confident.
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Actualy "analysts predict" that Super Mario Run could have 1.5b downloads. Also Super Mario Run is free to play game with in-app purchases.
Pokemon GO already topped 500m downloads. Mario has better brand recognition and it's much more familiar face WW than Pokemon.
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No, Super Mario Run is a premium game, not free-to-play. You can download and play a piece as a demo but then you have a one-off purchase. That's the huge divide between it and all other successful runners.
I don't know how much more recognizable Mario is than Pikachu (Pokemon). There's not a Mario balloon in the Macy's Day Parade :P. And Pokemon has movies and the anime and the games and toys. I would say they're pretty even, though more people have nostalgic gaming memories with Mario sure. But that alone can't make much difference because at most you are looking at what, 100 million people with Mario memories if we are REALLY generous? That's 1/15 of that 1.5 billion figure. So 1.4 billion need to be brought in by something else.
Also, ONE analyst is saying that and I frankly find it very hillarious. If he includes downloads of the free demo sure. Sales? No way, I'll believe it when I see it.
