Forums - Microsoft Discussion - Why the Scorpio will sell for no more than $399 (if its 6tflops).

Will the Scorpio sell for no more than $399 (if its 6Tflops).

Yes. Technology progresse... 117 29.77%
 
No. Its simply too expens... 276 70.23%
 
Total:393

when microsoft release scorpio ps4 pro cost around 300-350$



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Hiku said:
barneystinson69 said:

So with the announcement of the PS4 Pro and it being only $399, many have called upon the doom of the Scorpio. I'm here to settle the waves a little bit, and try to talk with what we know of the Scorpio. Now we know AS OF NOW that the Scorpio is going to be 6Tflops. Microsoft has already stated this, so we're not going to dig into whether or not this is true. Maybe it will be 8-10tflops and cost $600, but this is pure speculation at this point. So for the sake of my argument, we're going to assume that Microsoft doesn't change its specs.

People have stated that this means the Scorpio should launch for 500-600 dollars. Now if the Scorpio was launching today, I could see the point in your argument. But since its launch is next year, it doesn't hold up. One simply reason: Moore's Law. The rate of technological advancement doubles every two years. You could say this is absurd! Its suppose to be a "premium device", how could this be true? Well lets use the PS4 Pro and the PS4 as an example. When the PS4 launched in 2013, it cost $399. The PS4 Pro will also cost $399, but will have 4.2 Tflops of power vs 1.8. Thats a 133% increase in power for the same price within 3 years. Granted its slower than what Moore's law predict's, its an impressive increase nonetheless. Given how the Scorpio will be launching in 2017, that gives us more time to progress. Now keep in mind, I'm assuming the Scorpio will be 6Tflops. If its increased, then its likely to cost more than that. So discuss all you will, but keep in mind that the Scorpio has been announced with 6Tflops. 

A few problems with your reasoning.
For starters, Sony never said that the PS4 Pro would have a premium price. Clearly that's not what they aimed for, and keeping it at the standar accepted $400 was a goal for them. It's a mid console cycle refresh. A system that has the highest specs that a standard price console allows. PS3 Slim is a different choice. A few years old specs for a reduced cost.

Secondly, Digital Foundry, whose job it is to analyse these things, assume that it will cost "at least $100 more than PS4 Pro" next year. You think they overlooked the simple fact that technology goes down in price over time? They're of course counting on it. It would cost a lot more than that today. Just a graphics card alone that's capable of 4K @60 fps today costs more than that.

Either MS change their minds about Scorpio being a "premium device for a premium price", or it's going to exceed the $400 price point.

You also need to keep in mind Sony didn't have a clue about the PS4 Pro price. They don't have insiders in Microsoft, so their guess is educated at best. My reasoning is that if the PS4 pro can be $399, the Scorpio can as well. As far as we know, the only upgrade outside the GPU is the ram, and maybe an overclock to the CPU. But its mostly the same system.



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It has to be 400$ to have any chance of competing with PS4 Pro. Regular PS4 (which is already more powerful than Xbox One and Xbox One S) now costs as much as Xbox One - 299$. For 100$ more (from PS4 Slim 500gb) or 50$ more (from PS4 Slim 1TB) you can buy PS4 Pro which has over twice as powerful GPU and 30% faster CPU.
During that year more and more people will be buying PS4 and Xbox One S to play new games. People that won't be satisfied with level of graphics or performance on regular PS4 and Xbox One / S will be either switching to PC or getting PS4 Pro. People that will want to play Forza Horizon 3 and Gears of War in 60 fps and better graphics may invest in Gaming PC before Xbox Scorpio is out, people that don't care about Xbox Exclusives and want something more affordable will get a PS4 Pro. A full year headstart! If Scorpio has 6 Tflops GPU and costs 499$, it won't be any better deal than 4.2 Tflops PS4 Pro for a whole 100$ less . Hell if people say 4.2 Tflop vs 1.4 Tflop (300% difference) is not worth extra 50$ and get Xbox One S 1TB instead of waiting for PS4 Pro, then how do you expect people to pay 100$ more for 40% powerful Scorpio? PS4 Pro is here a year earlier for just 399$.



barneystinson69 said:
Hiku said:

A few problems with your reasoning.
For starters, Sony never said that the PS4 Pro would have a premium price. Clearly that's not what they aimed for, and keeping it at the standar accepted $400 was a goal for them. It's a mid console cycle refresh. A system that has the highest specs that a standard price console allows. PS3 Slim is a different choice. A few years old specs for a reduced cost.

Secondly, Digital Foundry, whose job it is to analyse these things, assume that it will cost "at least $100 more than PS4 Pro" next year. You think they overlooked the simple fact that technology goes down in price over time? They're of course counting on it. It would cost a lot more than that today. Just a graphics card alone that's capable of 4K @60 fps today costs more than that.

Either MS change their minds about Scorpio being a "premium device for a premium price", or it's going to exceed the $400 price point.

You also need to keep in mind Sony didn't have a clue about the PS4 Pro price. They don't have insiders in Microsoft, so their guess is educated at best. My reasoning is that if the PS4 pro can be $399, the Scorpio can as well. As far as we know, the only upgrade outside the GPU is the ram, and maybe an overclock to the CPU. But its mostly the same system.

By Sony, you mean Digital Foundry? They wrote a new article on the subject last month and seemingly updated it with the PS4 Pro's price, while still maintaining their estimate of the Scorpio being at least $100 more than the Pro: http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2016-08-18-project-scorpio-release-date-price-games-xbox
(Read the last paragraph)

Which means they expected Pro to cost at least $400. Probably more, as most were surprised by the Pro's low cost. (I guess they didn't expect Sony to omitt a 4K BD drive) Which bodes worse for the Scorpio's price difference in relation to the Pro, wouldn't you say?

And what kind of reasoning is "if PS4 Pro can be $400, so can the Scorpio"?



Radek said:

It has to be 400$ to have any chance of competing with PS4 Pro. Regular PS4 (which is already more powerful than Xbox One and Xbox One S) now costs as much as Xbox One - 299$. For 100$ more (from PS4 Slim 500gb) or 50$ more (from PS4 Slim 1TB) you can buy PS4 Pro which has over twice as powerful GPU and 30% faster CPU.
During that year more and more people will be buying PS4 and Xbox One S to play new games. People that won't be satisfied with level of graphics or performance on regular PS4 and Xbox One / S will be either switching to PC or getting PS4 Pro. People that will want to play Forza Horizon 3 and Gears of War in 60 fps and better graphics may invest in Gaming PC before Xbox Scorpio is out, people that don't care about Xbox Exclusives and want something more affordable will get a PS4 Pro. A full year headstart! If Scorpio has 6 Tflops GPU and costs 499$, it won't be any better deal than 4.2 Tflops PS4 Pro for a whole 100$ less . Hell if people say 4.2 Tflop vs 1.4 Tflop (300% difference) is not worth extra 50$ and get Xbox One S 1TB instead of waiting for PS4 Pro, then how do you expect people to pay 100$ more for 40% powerful Scorpio? PS4 Pro is here a year earlier for just 399$.

Microsoft want the "no generations" thing. Why would they try to compete agains the PS4 if they will focus on a "premium" market and will have regular upgrades instead of generations.



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Hiku said:
barneystinson69 said:

You also need to keep in mind Sony didn't have a clue about the PS4 Pro price. They don't have insiders in Microsoft, so their guess is educated at best. My reasoning is that if the PS4 pro can be $399, the Scorpio can as well. As far as we know, the only upgrade outside the GPU is the ram, and maybe an overclock to the CPU. But its mostly the same system.

By Sony, you mean Digital Foundry? They wrote a new article on the subject last month and seemingly updated it with the PS4 Pro's price, while still maintaining their estimate of the Scorpio being at least $100 more than the Pro: http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2016-08-18-project-scorpio-release-date-price-games-xbox
(Read the last paragraph)

Which means they expected Pro to cost at least $400. Probably more, as most were surprised by the Pro's low cost. (I guess they didn't expect Sony to omitt a 4K BD drive) Which bodes worse for the Scorpio's price difference in relation to the Pro, wouldn't you say?

And what kind of reasoning is "if PS4 Pro can be $400, so can the Scorpio"?

My point being is why would Microsoft release a console for $500 when its competitor will be 100-150$ cheaper. The CPU is still Jaguar, and the only upgrades are going to be to the RAM and GPU. I don't see where the extra $100 is coming from.



Made a bet with LipeJJ and HylianYoshi that the XB1 will reach 30 million before Wii U reaches 15 million. Loser has to get avatar picked by winner for 6 months (or if I lose, either 6 months avatar control for both Lipe and Hylian, or my patrick avatar comes back forever).

barneystinson69 said:
Hiku said:

By Sony, you mean Digital Foundry? They wrote a new article on the subject last month and seemingly updated it with the PS4 Pro's price, while still maintaining their estimate of the Scorpio being at least $100 more than the Pro: http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2016-08-18-project-scorpio-release-date-price-games-xbox
(Read the last paragraph)

Which means they expected Pro to cost at least $400. Probably more, as most were surprised by the Pro's low cost. (I guess they didn't expect Sony to omitt a 4K BD drive) Which bodes worse for the Scorpio's price difference in relation to the Pro, wouldn't you say?

And what kind of reasoning is "if PS4 Pro can be $400, so can the Scorpio"?

My point being is why would Microsoft release a console for $500 when its competitor will be 100-150$ cheaper. The CPU is still Jaguar, and the only upgrades are going to be to the RAM and GPU. I don't see where the extra $100 is coming from.

Hardware wise, Eurogamer expects it'll cost them at least $100 more. I'd trust their analysis more unless you can show why your analysis is more reliable. Saying that "tech goes down in price" or "it's still Jaguar" when they are accounting for this in the article isn't an argument against their analysis.
And considering that not many expected Pro to retail for $400 and omit the 4K BD drive, that could mean they estimated Scorpio to cost at least 150-200 more. If you google "xbox scorpio price", the first four articles that came up speculating the price (besides Eurogamer's) all speculate above $600 or $700. I don't know how trustworthy they are compared to EG, but it seems to be a common estimate.

You ask why they would sell it at such a price when their competitor sells theirs for $400. The answer is a different target audience. The Pro is not targeted at people who want the absolute top of the line specs, but rather those who are put off by console performance mid generation and instead look towards PC gaming. Scorpio sounds like it intends to target those who normally aren't interested in console cycles at any point in time, even when they first launch due to their specs.

Of course, I don't know what MS expected Sony would sell the Pro for, but their plans for Scorpio probably started long before they even heard rumors of it.
Maybe seeing what Sony are doing now will change their minds. But as far as the hardware cost is concerned for the Scorpio, if they sell it for $400 it sounds like they'll take a massive hit.



Hiku said:
barneystinson69 said:

My point being is why would Microsoft release a console for $500 when its competitor will be 100-150$ cheaper. The CPU is still Jaguar, and the only upgrades are going to be to the RAM and GPU. I don't see where the extra $100 is coming from.

Hardware wise, Eurogamer expects it'll cost them at least $100 more. I'd trust their analysis more unless you can show why your analysis is more reliable. Saying that "tech goes down in price" or "it's still Jaguar" when they are accounting for this in the article isn't an argument against their analysis.
And considering that not many expected Pro to retail for $400 and omit the 4K BD drive, that could mean they estimated Scorpio to cost at least 150-200 more. If you google "xbox scorpio price", the first four articles that came up speculating the price (besides Eurogamer's) all speculate above $600 or $700. I don't ´know how trustworthy they are compared to EG, but it seems to be a common estimate.

You ask why they would sell it at such a price when their competitor sells theirs for $400. The answer is a different target audience. The Pro is not targeted at people who want the absolute top of the line specs, but rather those who are put off by console performance mid generation and instead look towards PC gaming. Scorpio sounds like it intends to target those who normally aren't interested in console cycles at any point in time, even when they first launch due to their specs.

Of course, I don't know what MS expected Sony would sell the Pro for, but their plans for Scorpio probably started long before they even heard rumors of it.
Maybe seeing what Sony are doing now will change their minds. But as far as the hardware cost is concerned for the Scorpio bnased on what we know of it so far, I don't see a particular reason to doubt EG's estimate.

You need to keep in mind that we don't know how much Microsoft is getting these parts for. The PS4 Pro is the best way to estimate how much the Scorpio will be, as the only differences will be the GPU and RAM. If Microsoft were going for a "different audience", then Microsoft wouldn't only put 6Tflops of graphical power into the Scorpio. As I've said, Microsoft needs to compete with Sony. Making their console $499 will guarentee it fails. Maybe we can wager for it ;)



Made a bet with LipeJJ and HylianYoshi that the XB1 will reach 30 million before Wii U reaches 15 million. Loser has to get avatar picked by winner for 6 months (or if I lose, either 6 months avatar control for both Lipe and Hylian, or my patrick avatar comes back forever).

This thread feels embarassing.
"Moore's Law!!!" OK, so then talk about processor fabrication advancement to substantiate that.
Sony is using Global Foundries 14nm FinFET. Where is MS going to get10nm by next year to achieve Moore's Law? They aren't.
They are going to use the same process, they are using same designer AMD who is set up to work with 14nm,
yield curves and prices will be better, but Sony will also be getting advantage of that (Sony may well drop prices next holiday).
(Sony is under least $ competition for Pro now, they can price-compete strongly when Scorpio intros, then profit later in gen)
I don't follow RAM fab as closely, but that seems more likely they could find a process improvement from somebody,
which might be what is seen as half-node but which will help them deliver 50% more GDDR for a better price ratio.

I don't believe MS will actually get Zen although if they did it would be great for them, but they will at least use Puma+.
Sony not doing so was IMHO down to making it easier for devs to cross-develop for Pro and OG/Slim, and benefit not > cost.
(in that Puma+ would not turn 30fps games into 60fps, and compatability with PS4 og/ ease of cross-optimization was priority)
MS is clear that they aim to achieve "no generation break" going forward from Scorpio, meaning that the same basic game
on Scorpio 2 will need to be playable on Scorpio 1, with future competition coming from PS 5 / PS4 Pro Neo Lovebaby etc.
Sony's PS5/etc will likely be making break in CPU arch to Zen, just because that will be way forward for performance,
so MS will want to get Zen if they can, but IMHO the time table is just very iffy on that being realistic. Who knows though.
The CPU arch update is not a big factor in cost though, and wasn't a factor is Sony's choice to stay with Jaguar IMHO.
(in that arch improvement are more efficient improver of performance than upclocking obsolete Jaguar architecture)


Scorpio seems most likely to get some subsidy from MS, because helping Scorpio will more directly help Scorpio "Pro"/2/etc,
given that MS can then follow the extended generation approach Sony is using, avoiding generation break/re-set,
they can justify to accountants that they won't need to subsidize ever again, and doing so now helps "extended generation platform".

IMHO they might try to get to $450, but perhaps it would be $500-550, anything above would be lethal,
and even $500 is strongly pushing it, although to re-iterate it is not about "beating" Sony in sales, that is not happening,
they can be fully profitable even trailing by 2:1 as they are now, even if they might aim to improve that somewhat.



barneystinson69 said:

You need to keep in mind that we don't know how much Microsoft is getting these parts for. The PS4 Pro is the best way to estimate how much the Scorpio will be, as the only differences will be the GPU and RAM. If Microsoft were going for a "different audience", then Microsoft wouldn't only put 6Tflops of graphical power into the Scorpio. As I've said, Microsoft needs to compete with Sony. Making their console $499 will guarentee it fails. Maybe we can wager for it ;)

Their plans for Scorpio likely started years ago. None of them had done something like this before, so why do you assume they based their plans around what Sony would do, when they probably didn't expect Sony to make a Pro? As far as everyone was concerned, Sony would release PS4 Slim, and then PS5. MS should have assumed no differently.
Which means MS intended to do something different than the competition, and that's why they're aiming at a different type of customer.
They didn't expect the Pro, so they assumed it would be 6Tflops vs 1.8 Tflops. They wouldn't need to go higher than 6Tf.
They also knew how successful PS4 would be at an early stage, so there would be less rush for Sony to end the generation early and release PS5, giving MS some time with Scorpio.

As for "Only difference is GPU and RAM". A GPU alone can make all the difference. You know that. Do you know what the cheapest GPU is today that can run new games in both 4K and 60fps?
Speaking of how much MS will pay for the parts, we don't know that. Maybe that will be a factor. But so far, MS has sold inferior tech to the PS4, for the same price as PS4. At least they started off that way, and graduately lowered the price. So I'm not so confident about them finding great deals in relation to what their engineers develop.

What would the wager be? I'm not opposed to the idea of MS changing their plans after they've seen the Pro, and observing its sales. But I trust EG enough to expect that they'd have to lower the specs of the Scorpio if they intend to sell it at a lower price.