This thread feels embarassing.
"Moore's Law!!!" OK, so then talk about processor fabrication advancement to substantiate that.
Sony is using Global Foundries 14nm FinFET. Where is MS going to get10nm by next year to achieve Moore's Law? They aren't.
They are going to use the same process, they are using same designer AMD who is set up to work with 14nm,
yield curves and prices will be better, but Sony will also be getting advantage of that (Sony may well drop prices next holiday).
(Sony is under least $ competition for Pro now, they can price-compete strongly when Scorpio intros, then profit later in gen)
I don't follow RAM fab as closely, but that seems more likely they could find a process improvement from somebody,
which might be what is seen as half-node but which will help them deliver 50% more GDDR for a better price ratio.
I don't believe MS will actually get Zen although if they did it would be great for them, but they will at least use Puma+.
Sony not doing so was IMHO down to making it easier for devs to cross-develop for Pro and OG/Slim, and benefit not > cost.
(in that Puma+ would not turn 30fps games into 60fps, and compatability with PS4 og/ ease of cross-optimization was priority)
MS is clear that they aim to achieve "no generation break" going forward from Scorpio, meaning that the same basic game
on Scorpio 2 will need to be playable on Scorpio 1, with future competition coming from PS 5 / PS4 Pro Neo Lovebaby etc.
Sony's PS5/etc will likely be making break in CPU arch to Zen, just because that will be way forward for performance,
so MS will want to get Zen if they can, but IMHO the time table is just very iffy on that being realistic. Who knows though.
The CPU arch update is not a big factor in cost though, and wasn't a factor is Sony's choice to stay with Jaguar IMHO.
(in that arch improvement are more efficient improver of performance than upclocking obsolete Jaguar architecture)
Scorpio seems most likely to get some subsidy from MS, because helping Scorpio will more directly help Scorpio "Pro"/2/etc,
given that MS can then follow the extended generation approach Sony is using, avoiding generation break/re-set,
they can justify to accountants that they won't need to subsidize ever again, and doing so now helps "extended generation platform".
IMHO they might try to get to $450, but perhaps it would be $500-550, anything above would be lethal,
and even $500 is strongly pushing it, although to re-iterate it is not about "beating" Sony in sales, that is not happening,
they can be fully profitable even trailing by 2:1 as they are now, even if they might aim to improve that somewhat.
