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Forums - Microsoft Discussion - Why the Scorpio will sell for no more than $399 (if its 6tflops).

 

Will the Scorpio sell for no more than $399 (if its 6Tflops).

Yes. Technology progresse... 117 29.77%
 
No. Its simply too expens... 276 70.23%
 
Total:393
Teeqoz on 13 September 2016
irstupid said:
Normchacho said:
I assume the only spec you remembered was that 6Tflops.

12gb of GDDR5 RAM
4K Blu Ray drive
And it's going to require an all new CPU.

The PS4 Pro is $399 with the same CPU, the same RAM, and no 4K Blu Ray drive.

$499 will be impressively inexpensive.

Plus, Moore's law is dead.

www.technologyreview.com/s/601441/moores-law-is-dead-now-what/

Ah Moore's law is daed.

I seem to recal seeing articles like that every year for the last 15 years. I fully expect to see another one a year from now saying Moore's law officially dead in 2017

The first consumer 14 nm cpu was launched by Intel in september 2014. Now here we are in september 2016, 2 years later (the infamous time span in which the distance of a transistar gate is supposed to be halved according to Moore's law!) and CPUs are still using 14 nm transistors. And Intel's upcoming Kaby Lake CPUs that are releaseing late this year and early 2017 (different parts of the lineup) will still be using 14 nm transistors. It won't be until Intel's Cannon Lake CPUs, launcing in late 2017-early 2018 that we will see a smaller node, at 10 nm, three years after the first 14 nm CPUs. And 10 nm is not half of 14 nm. It's quite a bit more than half of 14 nm, which would be 7 nm. So uhhh yeah, Moore's law is dead as fuck by now. But you don't have to believe me if you don't want to



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Teeqoz on 13 September 2016
CGI-Quality said:
Teeqoz said:

No my dear sir, you are the fool!

You weren't supposed to take that literally...

Then again, I did say "if I could have it my way". Fool.

Well, if I could have it my way, I'd say they should give them away for free with a can of coca cola!



rbej on 13 September 2016

PS4 Pro = Jaguar + Polaris + 8GB Ram+ no BD 4k player.

Scorpio = Zen + Vega + 12GB Ram+ BD 4k player.

2016 tech vs 2017 tech.

Scorpio price. More than 400$.



Normchacho on 13 September 2016
shikamaru317 said:

If it was just a GPU upgrade over PS4 Pro I agree it would be $400, but Scorpio has a GPU, CPU, and a RAM upgrade over PS4 Pro, maybe a hard drive upgrade as well. So I'm thinking it'll be $450 or $500.

PS4 Pro
4.2 tflop GPU
8 core Jaguar CPU
8 GB GDDR5 at 218 GB/s

Scorpio
6 tflop GPU
8 core Zen CPU (at least 40% faster than a Jaguar CPU at the same clock rate)
12 GB GDDR5x at 320 GB/s

MS has said that they are Jaguar cores. Which is a shame. But I can't imagine them not using a new CPU of some kind.



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I bet that on launch the Nintendo Switch will have no built in in-game voice chat. He bets that it will. The winner gets six months of avatar control over the other user.

Kerotan on 13 September 2016

It could well be $449. I could could see MS taking a $50 hit on it aswell. For example it costs them $500 but they retail it for $449.

If they launch it at $449 or $399 I could see Sony dropping the Pro to $349 next fall. They'll want to keep a $50 gap but would prefer $100 plus obviously.



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cheryl on 13 September 2016

when microsoft release scorpio ps4 pro cost around 300-350$



barneystinson69 on 13 September 2016
Hiku said:
barneystinson69 said:

So with the announcement of the PS4 Pro and it being only $399, many have called upon the doom of the Scorpio. I'm here to settle the waves a little bit, and try to talk with what we know of the Scorpio. Now we know AS OF NOW that the Scorpio is going to be 6Tflops. Microsoft has already stated this, so we're not going to dig into whether or not this is true. Maybe it will be 8-10tflops and cost $600, but this is pure speculation at this point. So for the sake of my argument, we're going to assume that Microsoft doesn't change its specs.

People have stated that this means the Scorpio should launch for 500-600 dollars. Now if the Scorpio was launching today, I could see the point in your argument. But since its launch is next year, it doesn't hold up. One simply reason: Moore's Law. The rate of technological advancement doubles every two years. You could say this is absurd! Its suppose to be a "premium device", how could this be true? Well lets use the PS4 Pro and the PS4 as an example. When the PS4 launched in 2013, it cost $399. The PS4 Pro will also cost $399, but will have 4.2 Tflops of power vs 1.8. Thats a 133% increase in power for the same price within 3 years. Granted its slower than what Moore's law predict's, its an impressive increase nonetheless. Given how the Scorpio will be launching in 2017, that gives us more time to progress. Now keep in mind, I'm assuming the Scorpio will be 6Tflops. If its increased, then its likely to cost more than that. So discuss all you will, but keep in mind that the Scorpio has been announced with 6Tflops. 

A few problems with your reasoning.
For starters, Sony never said that the PS4 Pro would have a premium price. Clearly that's not what they aimed for, and keeping it at the standar accepted $400 was a goal for them. It's a mid console cycle refresh. A system that has the highest specs that a standard price console allows. PS3 Slim is a different choice. A few years old specs for a reduced cost.

Secondly, Digital Foundry, whose job it is to analyse these things, assume that it will cost "at least $100 more than PS4 Pro" next year. You think they overlooked the simple fact that technology goes down in price over time? They're of course counting on it. It would cost a lot more than that today. Just a graphics card alone that's capable of 4K @60 fps today costs more than that.

Either MS change their minds about Scorpio being a "premium device for a premium price", or it's going to exceed the $400 price point.

You also need to keep in mind Sony didn't have a clue about the PS4 Pro price. They don't have insiders in Microsoft, so their guess is educated at best. My reasoning is that if the PS4 pro can be $399, the Scorpio can as well. As far as we know, the only upgrade outside the GPU is the ram, and maybe an overclock to the CPU. But its mostly the same system.



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Swordmasterman on 13 September 2016
Radek said:

It has to be 400$ to have any chance of competing with PS4 Pro. Regular PS4 (which is already more powerful than Xbox One and Xbox One S) now costs as much as Xbox One - 299$. For 100$ more (from PS4 Slim 500gb) or 50$ more (from PS4 Slim 1TB) you can buy PS4 Pro which has over twice as powerful GPU and 30% faster CPU.
During that year more and more people will be buying PS4 and Xbox One S to play new games. People that won't be satisfied with level of graphics or performance on regular PS4 and Xbox One / S will be either switching to PC or getting PS4 Pro. People that will want to play Forza Horizon 3 and Gears of War in 60 fps and better graphics may invest in Gaming PC before Xbox Scorpio is out, people that don't care about Xbox Exclusives and want something more affordable will get a PS4 Pro. A full year headstart! If Scorpio has 6 Tflops GPU and costs 499$, it won't be any better deal than 4.2 Tflops PS4 Pro for a whole 100$ less . Hell if people say 4.2 Tflop vs 1.4 Tflop (300% difference) is not worth extra 50$ and get Xbox One S 1TB instead of waiting for PS4 Pro, then how do you expect people to pay 100$ more for 40% powerful Scorpio? PS4 Pro is here a year earlier for just 399$.

Microsoft want the "no generations" thing. Why would they try to compete agains the PS4 if they will focus on a "premium" market and will have regular upgrades instead of generations.



barneystinson69 on 13 September 2016
Hiku said:
barneystinson69 said:

You also need to keep in mind Sony didn't have a clue about the PS4 Pro price. They don't have insiders in Microsoft, so their guess is educated at best. My reasoning is that if the PS4 pro can be $399, the Scorpio can as well. As far as we know, the only upgrade outside the GPU is the ram, and maybe an overclock to the CPU. But its mostly the same system.

By Sony, you mean Digital Foundry? They wrote a new article on the subject last month and seemingly updated it with the PS4 Pro's price, while still maintaining their estimate of the Scorpio being at least $100 more than the Pro: http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2016-08-18-project-scorpio-release-date-price-games-xbox
(Read the last paragraph)

Which means they expected Pro to cost at least $400. Probably more, as most were surprised by the Pro's low cost. (I guess they didn't expect Sony to omitt a 4K BD drive) Which bodes worse for the Scorpio's price difference in relation to the Pro, wouldn't you say?

And what kind of reasoning is "if PS4 Pro can be $400, so can the Scorpio"?

My point being is why would Microsoft release a console for $500 when its competitor will be 100-150$ cheaper. The CPU is still Jaguar, and the only upgrades are going to be to the RAM and GPU. I don't see where the extra $100 is coming from.



Made a bet with LipeJJ and HylianYoshi that the XB1 will reach 30 million before Wii U reaches 15 million. Loser has to get avatar picked by winner for 6 months (or if I lose, either 6 months avatar control for both Lipe and Hylian, or my patrick avatar comes back forever).

barneystinson69 on 13 September 2016
Hiku said:
barneystinson69 said:

My point being is why would Microsoft release a console for $500 when its competitor will be 100-150$ cheaper. The CPU is still Jaguar, and the only upgrades are going to be to the RAM and GPU. I don't see where the extra $100 is coming from.

Hardware wise, Eurogamer expects it'll cost them at least $100 more. I'd trust their analysis more unless you can show why your analysis is more reliable. Saying that "tech goes down in price" or "it's still Jaguar" when they are accounting for this in the article isn't an argument against their analysis.
And considering that not many expected Pro to retail for $400 and omit the 4K BD drive, that could mean they estimated Scorpio to cost at least 150-200 more. If you google "xbox scorpio price", the first four articles that came up speculating the price (besides Eurogamer's) all speculate above $600 or $700. I don't ´know how trustworthy they are compared to EG, but it seems to be a common estimate.

You ask why they would sell it at such a price when their competitor sells theirs for $400. The answer is a different target audience. The Pro is not targeted at people who want the absolute top of the line specs, but rather those who are put off by console performance mid generation and instead look towards PC gaming. Scorpio sounds like it intends to target those who normally aren't interested in console cycles at any point in time, even when they first launch due to their specs.

Of course, I don't know what MS expected Sony would sell the Pro for, but their plans for Scorpio probably started long before they even heard rumors of it.
Maybe seeing what Sony are doing now will change their minds. But as far as the hardware cost is concerned for the Scorpio bnased on what we know of it so far, I don't see a particular reason to doubt EG's estimate.

You need to keep in mind that we don't know how much Microsoft is getting these parts for. The PS4 Pro is the best way to estimate how much the Scorpio will be, as the only differences will be the GPU and RAM. If Microsoft were going for a "different audience", then Microsoft wouldn't only put 6Tflops of graphical power into the Scorpio. As I've said, Microsoft needs to compete with Sony. Making their console $499 will guarentee it fails. Maybe we can wager for it ;)



Made a bet with LipeJJ and HylianYoshi that the XB1 will reach 30 million before Wii U reaches 15 million. Loser has to get avatar picked by winner for 6 months (or if I lose, either 6 months avatar control for both Lipe and Hylian, or my patrick avatar comes back forever).