Why the Scorpio will sell for no more than $399 (if its 6tflops).

[barneystinson69]

Hiku said:

barneystinson69 said:

So with the announcement of the PS4 Pro and it being only $399, many have called upon the doom of the Scorpio. I'm here to settle the waves a little bit, and try to talk with what we know of the Scorpio. Now we know AS OF NOW that the Scorpio is going to be 6Tflops. Microsoft has already stated this, so we're not going to dig into whether or not this is true. Maybe it will be 8-10tflops and cost $600, but this is pure speculation at this point. So for the sake of my argument, we're going to assume that Microsoft doesn't change its specs.

People have stated that this means the Scorpio should launch for 500-600 dollars. Now if the Scorpio was launching today, I could see the point in your argument. But since its launch is next year, it doesn't hold up. One simply reason: Moore's Law. The rate of technological advancement doubles every two years. You could say this is absurd! Its suppose to be a "premium device", how could this be true? Well lets use the PS4 Pro and the PS4 as an example. When the PS4 launched in 2013, it cost $399. The PS4 Pro will also cost $399, but will have 4.2 Tflops of power vs 1.8. Thats a 133% increase in power for the same price within 3 years. Granted its slower than what Moore's law predict's, its an impressive increase nonetheless. Given how the Scorpio will be launching in 2017, that gives us more time to progress. Now keep in mind, I'm assuming the Scorpio will be 6Tflops. If its increased, then its likely to cost more than that. So discuss all you will, but keep in mind that the Scorpio has been announced with 6Tflops. 

A few problems with your reasoning.
For starters, Sony never said that the PS4 Pro would have a premium price. Clearly that's not what they aimed for, and keeping it at the standar accepted $400 was a goal for them. It's a mid console cycle refresh. A system that has the highest specs that a standard price console allows. PS3 Slim is a different choice. A few years old specs for a reduced cost.

Secondly, Digital Foundry, whose job it is to analyse these things, assume that it will cost "at least $100 more than PS4 Pro" next year. You think they overlooked the simple fact that technology goes down in price over time? They're of course counting on it. It would cost a lot more than that today. Just a graphics card alone that's capable of 4K @60 fps today costs more than that.

Either MS change their minds about Scorpio being a "premium device for a premium price", or it's going to exceed the $400 price point.

You also need to keep in mind Sony didn't have a clue about the PS4 Pro price. They don't have insiders in Microsoft, so their guess is educated at best. My reasoning is that if the PS4 pro can be $399, the Scorpio can as well. As far as we know, the only upgrade outside the GPU is the ram, and maybe an overclock to the CPU. But its mostly the same system.