Seriously? This thing is basically Nintendo's handheld and home console combined. So you think they'll go from 25m units (Wii U + 3DS) in Japan only to 20m units worldwide? I somewhat get the argument about the handheld market shrinking but you are predicting Wii U level sales for a device that will get twice as many games per year as the Wii U and 3DS did individually. This prediction is beyond pessimistic as Pokemon alone has never sold less than 10m units. 

The main issue are indeed the price and the compromise between home console and handheld. We can consider it like a better 3DS (but even the 3DS is not selling well compared to the DS), but it could be more expensive, more powerful but with less autonomy, maybe even more "chunky". A "powered-up" handheld console can have big drawbacks, especially for a younger audience and against mobiles and tablets. 

We already know that the home console audience is not interested enough in the Nintendo IPs to buy their consoles massively if it doesn't have enough other things going for it (power, third party...). 

It's all about balance here : they need to find the perfect point to use the strengths of both handheld and home consoles (price, power, autonomy, dev support, ergonomics...), and then need to explain and market it to at least 2 different audiences. It can be a huge success if they manage to do it flawlessly, but it can also be one of the biggest failures ever (on 2 markets) if anything goes wrong. Nintendo hasn't been that great in the last few years, so I'm curious but a bit pessimistic about it... 

Well, yeah, pretty much this. When I was active on the forums during the Wii generation people in the industry and gaming websites heavily tried to push the mantra that "Nintendo's bubble is about to burst" and "Nintendo needs to focus on the hardcore gamers" but I never thought that marketing message would become so ingrained in gamer's minds.

I can understand people being pessimistic about Nintendo after this generation but almost 50% of people in the poll voted 30m units or lower - which has absolutely no logical basis, it merely shows what people hope (or fear) will happen. Sure, if NX basically is a Wii U gamepad sized handheld that is horribly designed (= doesn't do any job for consumers and is bad as both a handheld and a home console) I could see it fail and sell less than 30m units. But if someone asks me for my Playstation 5 sales prediction I won't assume Sony is totally gonna screw this thing up and sell some monstrosity of a game console that nobody wants for $700+. We shouldn't use the most pessimistic of cases as our new normal.

Its a tablet... its gonna be too big to fit in your pockets reguardless.

This is a item that goes into your school bag or briefcase (if your heading to work via public transpertation).

I say make it big and heavy, give it a proper battery life.

If you have a Tegra X1 in there pulling 20watts of power, you ll need a big f***ing battery to give you 5hours of gameplay.

And you see, to me if its supposed to funktion as a tablet for gameing, thats more important that it being small enough to fit into pockets (which it probably wont reguardless, if they want it to have a tegra x1 in it).

again look at the WiiU hardware, if they were system sellers they would have moved a lot more WiiU units.

its very clear that a lot of the "casual crowd" dont care for nintendo games, they moved on to tablets and smartphones, and the core gamers dont care anymore either, as PC/PS/Xbox give them a much better gaming experience then the WiiU. 

Nintendo are doing one of the same mistakes they did with the WiiU, trying to appease to everyone, which will only result in them not appeasing to anyone. 

a handheld with a tegra graphics card, a dock to connect to the TV, detatchable controlers will result in harder mobility, lower battery life, and a more expensive machine than usual for handhelds, while also cutting down on the console experience by having less power than a 2017 console should have, a weird controller setup and a console that isnt a dedicated home console, which will have its drawbacks. 

Pretty much.

30 - 50 million is my best guess
i can't see it do significantly less, due to japan
and i even can't see it do significantly more because nintendo is not huge with kids and teens anymore.

i think ninendo will aim for a high software output and big tie rito. so something like >10
cost to develop should be lower, too and the profits will come in. just not anywhere near as big as the wii / ds era

I'm gonna say a dead even 60 million. Less than 3DS (market is confused about hybrid, but still healthy enough to support it), and much more than Wii U (I dont think I need to explain that).

I keep seeing the narravite change. Before the wiiu launched, I remember figuratively everyone going, "Mario 3d? Pftt. Look at what New Super Mario Bros did on wii. 2d Mario is king. The wiiu is gonna sell like hotcakes. Look at Mario Kart wii numbers. That alone will push wiiu over 30 mil". We all know how that happened in the end.

I'm going to say 40-60 million over a 6 year period. For the purposes of the poll I clicked the 50-75 million option, but I think 60 million is the upper range for NX. The more of these factors play in Nintendo's favour, the further towards 60 million I think the system gets.

Nintendo still had key titles sell 10-15 million units on 3DS, have still averaged over 10 million units per year with 3DS, and I think the hybrid design is a decent short-term plan for their business. The biggest market will be Japan, and the combination of family titles from Western publishers, Japanese support, and a higher level of first party software output from Nintendo should carry the system to a decent install base, though price, marketing and branding are crucial. Nintendo need to come in at $250 or lower at launch, to ensure this is an affordable, all-in-one box for playing Nintendo games.

In addition, I think the selling power of titles like Pokemon and Animal Crossing--which remain huge, 10 million plus sellers--on portable systems could really help NX. Combined with the usual strong sellers like Mario Kart (7.7 m on Wii U, 13.56 m 3DS), 3D Mario (5 m on Wii U, 10.8 m on 3DS), and Smash Bros (4.9 m Wii U, 8.3 m 3DS) now only being available in one NX version, I expect Nintendo have five franchises that should shift 10-15 million copies on NX. On top of that, they also have other, successful franchises like Splatoon, 2D Mario, Luigi's Mansion (3DS version), Zelda and Tomodachi Life which demonstrate they have a range of titles that can sell in the ~5 million range, which is not to be sniffed at.

None of this takes into account any interaction between Nintendo's mobile business and NX, which I believe does form part of their plans, but it also remains the biggest unknown so I offer very little speculation on that. It is, perhaps, the one factor that could take NX beyond 60 million. That is, if Nintendo can leverage the success of titles like Pokemon Go and, potentially, Animal Crossing mobile, to introduce their franchises and characters to a wider range of players around the world (particularly young players), NX could yet be more successful than I'm currently anticipating.

I equally accept that this is a risky move from Nintendo, but I think NX should clear 40 million lifetime, at least. The risks include, even at 40 million lifetime, Nintendo losing not just home console unit sales (13 m LT for Wii U) but more importantly to them, NX ending its life 25-30 million unit sales down from 3DS.