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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - If Eurogamer is right, How many NXs will sell?

 

How many NXs will sell WW Lifetime?

0 to 10 Million 84 14.53%
 
10.1 - 20 Million 82 14.19%
 
20.1 - 30 Million 108 18.69%
 
30.1 - 50 Million 123 21.28%
 
50.1 - 75 Million 83 14.36%
 
75 Million + !!!! = Nintendomination 98 16.96%
 
Total:578
GProgrammer on 27 July 2016

About 15 million



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Landguy on 27 July 2016
Einsam_Delphin said:
Landguy said:

It may seem logical to compare it to the 3DS.  But the 3DS failed at launch($250).  If this has the capabilities that we are discussing here, it will cost at least $300.  That is the point.  Not powerful enough to suceed as a console yet too expensive to succeed as a handheld.  Also, comparing it to the 3DS when the handheld market is doing nothing but shrinking isn't going to work really either.  If the 3DS came out today(assuming technically comparable for today), it's total sales might only be 1/2 or 2/3 what they are.  I am not saying a NEW dedicated handheld from Nintendo can't be successful, I am saying the version(hybrid) as indicated in the Eurogamer article will not be.  Even if Nintendo released a new dedicated handheld today, it might only have a peak possibility of 40-50 Million sales at most.

 

What exactly are the capabilitys we're discussing? They said they're using Tegra, and the Nvidia Shield using it which came out last year is $200. That's not at all too expensive for a handheld that'll have far greater value than the 3DS ever had. The handheld market is smaller sure, but they can still sell a healthy amount of systems. 50 million sales would be perfectly fine for them, but I'm confident they can do even better. They wont have the same issues that they did with the 3DS.

 

The capabilities are controllers, an ability to drive a 1080p image on a tv, an advanced screen.  The cost will yet be an issue from my perspective, but we will have to see.



It is near the end of the end....

midrange on 27 July 2016
teigaga said:
midrange said:

The 3ds had bad sales early on due to early adopters. Even the wii u had a respectable first 3 months (comparable to the Xbox one actually).

That price will simply be too much for a handheld (people won't be interested in the console portion since the competition is killing it). Merging the 2 ideas is actually what leads me to believe that it will drag below 20 million (rough estimate until actual details come out)

It being a hybrid handheld/tablet is exactly why it won't need to compete against PS4/X1. The tablet market is still huge (200m+ units a year) and many sell for well over $299. A premium spec tablet that lets you play Mario Kart (with splitscreen) and Pokemon will be quite a compelling purchase for many who are familar with nintendo but aren't necessarily interested in a dedicated Nintendo console in 2016. Theres very little info to go off of course, we don't even know whether Nintendo will push it as a tablet but I think it gonna sell like hot cakes at $299. 

 

Tablets like the iPad aren't bought for games. They are bought for other reasons but games are a nice plus on the device.

tablets that are bought for games (built to be durable and comfortable for gaming) come at a much much cheaper price. I would know, I found my little brother a Samsung tablet for around $100.

But $300 for a handheld gaming device? That's way too much. The fact that the Xbox one and ps4 are still popular will detract people from having the NX console side make up for the high price



JRPGfan on 27 July 2016
barneystinson69 said:

I won't bother embarrasing myself before we even know about the console. I don't want to look back on this thread in 2-3 years and know that I was horribly wrong.

^ thats what makes these threads fun :) the necrobumps.

Common cant I put you down for 50m on NX? you dont think a handheld from nintendo is going to atleast hit that?



bananaking21 on 28 July 2016
Einsam_Delphin said:
bananaking21 said:
between 15-25 million. majority of its sales will be from japan. and it will basically sell that much due to animal crossing and pokemon

 

Because Mario, Kirby, Zelda, Smash, Metroid, Splatoon, Pikmin, Fire Emblem, etc. exploded? I think people don't realize that this'll be the sole system to play Nintendo games on, and as such their library is going to give the NX a sizeable base by default, I'd say 30 million at the absolute very least if Nintendo majorly screws up.

@bolded: which did next to nothing for the WiiU. 

the handheld market is shrinking drasitcally, smartphones and tablets are the new king. 

@underlined: i dont think you realize that thats not a big deal anymore. 



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Goodnightmoon on 28 July 2016
bananaking21 said:
Einsam_Delphin said:

 

Because Mario, Kirby, Zelda, Smash, Metroid, Splatoon, Pikmin, Fire Emblem, etc. exploded? I think people don't realize that this'll be the sole system to play Nintendo games on, and as such their library is going to give the NX a sizeable base by default, I'd say 30 million at the absolute very least if Nintendo majorly screws up.

@bolded: which did next to nothing for the WiiU. 

the handheld market is shrinking drasitcally, smartphones and tablets are the new king. 

@underlined: i dont think you realize that thats not a big deal anymore. 

Looking at the sales of its games, looks like you're the one that doesn't realize it is a big deal.



StarDoor on 28 July 2016
bananaking21 said:
Einsam_Delphin said:

Because Mario, Kirby, Zelda, Smash, Metroid, Splatoon, Pikmin, Fire Emblem, etc. exploded? I think people don't realize that this'll be the sole system to play Nintendo games on, and as such their library is going to give the NX a sizeable base by default, I'd say 30 million at the absolute very least if Nintendo majorly screws up.

@bolded: which did next to nothing for the WiiU. 

the handheld market is shrinking drasitcally, smartphones and tablets are the new king. 

@underlined: i dont think you realize that thats not a big deal anymore. 

I'm not sure which universe you're from, but in this one, the Wii U got a touchscreen-based Kirby spin-off that should've been on 3DS, a crossover RPG spin-off that barely had anything to do with Fire Emblem at all, and no Metroid game whatsoever. They are certainly not examples that could have been reasonably expected to do something for the Wii U's sales. In the absence of another piece of Nintendo hardware, it's very likely that the NX will absorb a majority of the 3DS audience.



JRPGfan on 28 July 2016
StarDoor said:
bananaking21 said:

@bolded: which did next to nothing for the WiiU. 

the handheld market is shrinking drasitcally, smartphones and tablets are the new king. 

@underlined: i dont think you realize that thats not a big deal anymore. 

I'm not sure which universe you're from, but in this one, the Wii U got a touchscreen-based Kirby spin-off that should've been on 3DS, a crossover RPG spin-off that barely had anything to do with Fire Emblem at all, and no Metroid game whatsoever. They are certainly not examples that could have been reasonably expected to do something for the Wii U's sales. In the absence of another piece of Nintendo hardware, it's very likely that the NX will absorb a majority of the 3DS audience.

It doesnt stop there.

No mario 3D collectathon like mario game

No animal crossing (that isnt a party board game)

No zelda game (its gonna be out after the Wii U is dead)



Louie on 28 July 2016

Why are people so pessimistic? This will be Nintendo's one and only system so the software output for this device will be as large as the one for Wii U and 3DS combined. I'm skeptical about the form factor personally (I hope the screen is not larger than 5 inches because I don't want to carry a Wii U gamepad around) but the sheer number of 1st party games released for NX should carry this device to 50m units lifetime. Actually, that would still be really bad news because Wii U and 3DS combined are sitting around 80m units right now and Nintendo certainly doesn't want to have a smaller install base next gen.



Declan on 28 July 2016

With just one system to focus software on, Nintendo should be able to maintain a steady supply of new first party releases, with AAA ones like Pokemon, Mario and Splatoon appearing at regular intervals. This should generate good and steady hardware sales, which in turn should see improved third party support (relative to the WiiU at least - you could argue that 3DS third party support is OK). Assuming it's not too expensive, l can't see the NX doing badly at all.