By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Nintendo Discussion - If Eurogamer is right, How many NXs will sell?

 

How many NXs will sell WW Lifetime?

0 to 10 Million 84 14.53%
 
10.1 - 20 Million 82 14.19%
 
20.1 - 30 Million 108 18.69%
 
30.1 - 50 Million 123 21.28%
 
50.1 - 75 Million 83 14.36%
 
75 Million + !!!! = Nintendomination 98 16.96%
 
Total:578

zorg1000 said:

Its pretty hard to say that Nintendo games dont sell hardware.

But it's equally hard to say that Nintendo games will be huge system sellers for the NX when the Nintendo systems sales went from 250 millions to 75 millions in a generation, while keeping those Nintendo games. So either people don't care about the Nintendo games anymore (or less, anyway), or there is another reason behind this fall and this reason could very well be here with the NX too (mobile, third party, console competition...).

The question is not "do Nintendo games sell consoles?", it's "how much?". And right now, it's 2/3 less than a generation ago, so what will the next one be like ?

We shouldn't be overly dramatic about it, but the numbers and tendencies can't lead to huge optimism either...



Around the Network

If it is a full mobile device and will receive yearly upgrades like the Iphone, it will sell very well, especially if you can connect it to the PS4neo like NX home console.



Faelco said:

But it's equally hard to say that Nintendo games will be huge system sellers for the NX when the Nintendo systems sales went from 250 millions to 75 millions in a generation, while keeping those Nintendo games. So either people don't care about the Nintendo games anymore (or less, anyway), or there is another reason behind this fall and this reason could very well be here with the NX too (mobile, third party, console competition...).

The question is not "do Nintendo games sell consoles?", it's "how much?". And right now, it 2/3 less than a generation ago, so what will the next one be like ?

We shouldn't be overly dramatic about it, but the numbers and tendencies can't lead to huge optimism either...

 

You kinda just answered your own question, even with all their flaws (high price, meh launch line-up, poor marketing, droughts, etc.), Nintendo hardware still sold 70+ million this generation. Yeah that's not a good number between two different systems, but for a unified NX that would be a great amount.



Einsam_Delphin said:
Faelco said:

But it's equally hard to say that Nintendo games will be huge system sellers for the NX when the Nintendo systems sales went from 250 millions to 75 millions in a generation, while keeping those Nintendo games. So either people don't care about the Nintendo games anymore (or less, anyway), or there is another reason behind this fall and this reason could very well be here with the NX too (mobile, third party, console competition...).

The question is not "do Nintendo games sell consoles?", it's "how much?". And right now, it 2/3 less than a generation ago, so what will the next one be like ?

We shouldn't be overly dramatic about it, but the numbers and tendencies can't lead to huge optimism either...

 

You kinda just answered your own question, even with all their flaws (high price, meh launch line-up, poor marketing, droughts, etc.), Nintendo hardware still sold 70+ million this generation. Yeah that's not a good number between two different systems, but for a unified NX that would be a great amount.

You're happy and optimistic with the numbers, but you don't take into account the tendencies I was talking about. In statistics and market analysis the tendencies are important, frequently even more than the numbers... Can Nintendo straighten these tendencies out, I'm curious to see it, and we'll see it pretty soon now anyway.



One single sold NX, will be far too many. I don't understand why is Nintendo doing this, but they sure deserve the worst for it.



Around the Network
Ryng_Tolu said:
Landguy said:

People just have to accept that Nintendo hardware is mostly a niche product nowadays.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

....No wait, for real?

 

So let me guess, "Microsoft and Sony hardware are the most poupolar" Yes, cause i love that part when people mix those two, is like they are selling the same.

PS4 is the most popular console of the gen, yes. And 3DS is the second, fact.

 

Even if 3DS is way older, it is still outselling the Xbox one which is only 3 years old. and don't tell me that 3DS is selling more because the slim is out in one week, cause XBO is selling worse since January of this year.

 

You really wanna tell me 3DS is more niche than XBO?

Now you are comparing the only entrant in the handheld business to 1 of the 3 entrants in a different console market?  The comparison should have been the WiiU.

Sales of the 3ds have been slow the last 2 years.  Handhelds are a thing of the past.  They will always exist(at least for the next 10 years) as a niche product.  People need to accept that the phones and tablets have eliminated a real need for the MAJORITY(opposite of NICHE) of people to buy a handheld.  I have 4 different DSs in my home, so I am obviously not one of them(I also have 5 tablets).  This only makes sense.  

The XB1 is not the whole console market like the 3ds is the whole handheld market.  Game developers don't have to develop just for the XB1, they can develop for all 3 consoles if they wish.

The argument really is about whether the proposed handheld/console mix will sell like a old school Nintendo handheld(75 million +) or a normal Nintendo console (20-25 million).

My theory is that handhelds launched today would be lucky to hit 40 million+ in a good scenario.  Consoles (as proved by the XB1 and WiiU) are lucky to hit 30 million.  So, a hybrid doesn't mean that you combine  the sales, I think you only get a fraction of both buyer groups because both groups normally cross over and there will be some that are put off from the combo from either buying group.  

That's how I arrive at 25 million...



It is near the end of the end....

At max 30 million. HandHELP market isn't doing well. Nintendo needs to push a lot to get pass 30 million mark.



Faelco said:

You're happy and optimistic with the numbers, but you don't take into account the tendencies I was talking about. In statistics and market analysis the tendencies are important, frequently even more than the numbers... Can Nintendo straighten these tendencies out, I'm curious to see it, and we'll see it pretty soon now anyway.

 

And what are these tendencies and why do they matter more than sales numbers?



Einsam_Delphin said:
Faelco said:

You're happy and optimistic with the numbers, but you don't take into account the tendencies I was talking about. In statistics and market analysis the tendencies are important, frequently even more than the numbers... Can Nintendo straighten these tendencies out, I'm curious to see it, and we'll see it pretty soon now anyway.

 

And what are these tendencies and why do they matter more than sales numbers?

The tendencies are pretty easy : the Wii U sold 85% less than the Wii, the 3DS sold 60% less than the DS so the Nintendo consoles sales shrinked by 70%, and the handheld market shrinked by 70% too. The mix of all these numbers are the tendencies I'm talking about, and they're not good.

Why do tendencies matter more than sales numbers? For an easy example, do you believe more in the future of a 10 millions products market growing by more than 100% every year, or a 100 millions products market losing 50% sales every year? What would be your decision as an industry leader in this situation? Ideally, when a market is shrinking and another one is growing, you slowly retire from the shrinking one, even if it's still bigger right now, and you invest on the growing one (obviously if you think these tendencies will stay this way, and the real situation is a lot more complex than this). That's kind of what Nintendo is doing with their mobile presence (Miitomo, Pokemon Go) on one side and the NX on the other. I let you guess which one is the growing one and which one is the shrinking one...



Landguy said:

Now you are comparing the only entrant in the handheld business to 1 of the 3 entrants in a different console market?  The comparison should have been the WiiU.

Sales of the 3ds have been slow the last 2 years.  Handhelds are a thing of the past.  They will always exist(at least for the next 10 years) as a niche product.  People need to accept that the phones and tablets have eliminated a real need for the MAJORITY(opposite of NICHE) of people to buy a handheld.  I have 4 different DSs in my home, so I am obviously not one of them(I also have 5 tablets).  This only makes sense.  

The XB1 is not the whole console market like the 3ds is the whole handheld market.  Game developers don't have to develop just for the XB1, they can develop for all 3 consoles if they wish.

The argument really is about whether the proposed handheld/console mix will sell like a old school Nintendo handheld(75 million +) or a normal Nintendo console (20-25 million).

My theory is that handhelds launched today would be lucky to hit 40 million+ in a good scenario.  Consoles (as proved by the XB1 and WiiU) are lucky to hit 30 million.  So, a hybrid doesn't mean that you combine  the sales, I think you only get a fraction of both buyer groups because both groups normally cross over and there will be some that are put off from the combo from either buying group.  

That's how I arrive at 25 million...

...No sorry, are you talking with me or what? Cause i only laughted at the part about nintendo console are niche production.

NOT HANDHELDS Console. NINTENDO console.

XBO is not the leader of the market, so what?

We are comparing Nintendo console to Microsoft console.

 

Bigger Microsoft console of this generation is the XBO, which is still selling less than 3DS after so many years, the bigger Nintendo console of this generation.

 

That is. Seriusly, there is no way for say 3DS is a niche console, even if sales are not as good as one time. With this logic even the Wii is a niche console, cause the last years was not selling as much as at launch? This is not how this work.

 

For the prediction, i don't care. You can predict what you want as all others guys here. I only talked about your of saying Nintendo make niche console right now.