If Eurogamer is right, How many NXs will sell?

[Faelco]

Einsam_Delphin said:

Faelco said:

You're happy and optimistic with the numbers, but you don't take into account the tendencies I was talking about. In statistics and market analysis the tendencies are important, frequently even more than the numbers... Can Nintendo straighten these tendencies out, I'm curious to see it, and we'll see it pretty soon now anyway.

 

And what are these tendencies and why do they matter more than sales numbers?

The tendencies are pretty easy : the Wii U sold 85% less than the Wii, the 3DS sold 60% less than the DS so the Nintendo consoles sales shrinked by 70%, and the handheld market shrinked by 70% too. The mix of all these numbers are the tendencies I'm talking about, and they're not good.

Why do tendencies matter more than sales numbers? For an easy example, do you believe more in the future of a 10 millions products market growing by more than 100% every year, or a 100 millions products market losing 50% sales every year? What would be your decision as an industry leader in this situation? Ideally, when a market is shrinking and another one is growing, you slowly retire from the shrinking one, even if it's still bigger right now, and you invest on the growing one (obviously if you think these tendencies will stay this way, and the real situation is a lot more complex than this). That's kind of what Nintendo is doing with their mobile presence (Miitomo, Pokemon Go) on one side and the NX on the other. I let you guess which one is the growing one and which one is the shrinking one...