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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Reasons the NX will be a flop

thismeintiel on 27 July 2016
Soundwave said:
thismeintiel said:

Only if you look at the small picture.  However, step back and look at the large one.  Last gen was the PEAK of HH gaming.  We had the best selling HH ever, the DS, sell ~154M.  And we also had the best selling non-Nintendo HH ever, the PSP, sell ~82M+ (more than the GBA.)  That's over 236M.  And what do we have this gen?  The 3DS, which may not even sell half of what the 3DS sold, will be Nintendo's worst selling HH ever.  And the Vita may not even hit 20M.  There's no other way to look at it but that mobile gaming is killing the HH market.

Looking at home consoles is quite different.  We are moving back into the more usual model where there is a clear winner of the gen, with less cross over between platform customers, and with the other 2 trailing behind it.  The PS4 may not reach the PS2's total, but there is little question that it won't pass the PS3's and PS1's.  Not when it hasn't even dropped more than $50 from launch almost 3 years ago, or hit the magical $299 and $199 price points.  And while the XBO certainly won't pass the 360, it will be passing the OG XB.  All in all, I think we will see total consoles this gen be very similar in number to Gen 6, which saw the peak of the core gaming market.

This gen also proved that millions are willing to pay $399 for a console.  It also proved not many people are even willing to pay $249 for a HH.  For Nintendo's sake, they better price the NX for $199, or lower.  Anything higher and I don't think a lot are going to jump on.

3DS wasn't a console replacement + potential Android tablet in one. Value proposition is different. 

That's the big difference, it came out right before the mobile chipset boom, the level of mobile tech available today is light years beyond what was around back then for an affordable price. 

$299.99 would be reasonable for the type of device Nintendo is going for. 

Maybe for the die hard Nintendo fan, but any core gamer isn't gong to buy a $299 HH that's less powerful, and has less game support, than their $299 PS4/XBO.  And definitely not for the people who refused to pay $249 for the 3DS.  If anyone wants a nice Android gaming machine, they could probably just use their phone with Chromecast, or buy a $199 Nvidia Shield.



 

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_Jameson on 27 July 2016

NX won't flop, but doubling down on the dying handheld market will not produce Wii/PS4 level of results.

This situation reminds me of a quote from an anime named Haikyu!! "An excellent seedling needs suitably excellent soil. It can't yield first-rate fruit on barren land." -Wakatoshi Ushijima



Soundwave on 27 July 2016
thismeintiel said:
Soundwave said:

3DS wasn't a console replacement + potential Android tablet in one. Value proposition is different. 

That's the big difference, it came out right before the mobile chipset boom, the level of mobile tech available today is light years beyond what was around back then for an affordable price. 

$299.99 would be reasonable for the type of device Nintendo is going for. 

Maybe for the die hard Nintendo fan, but any core gamer isn't gong to buy a $299 HH that's less powerful, and has less game support, than their $299 PS4/XBO.  And definitely not for the people who refused to pay $249 for the 3DS.  If anyone wants a nice Android gaming machine, they could probably just use their phone with Chromecast, or buy a $199 Nvidia Shield.

I think there may be more than a few parents willing to buy a $250-$300 NX rather than a $400 iPad Mini + another $300 on a game console on top of that. 

The value at $299.99 if it can run Android apps, play full scale Nintendo games, play ports of modern third party games like Dragon Quest XI *on the fucking road* (good luck doing that with your PS4), Virtual Console games, and be like a mobile LAN machine that people gather around and play together for a different/more social play dynamic is fine. 

This isn't just a rinky dink handheld that can barely produce PS2 graphics, it'll likely be able to play even a fair number of PS4/XB1 current gen games on the go. If Nintendo can pull that off, they're in business. 

Wouldn't surprise me one bit if this thing destroys the PS4 in Japan and ends up getting a lot of Japanese support as a result. Dragon Quest XI, Pokemon Go, Zelda: Breath of the Wild, Pokemon RPG NX, Super Mario, Smash Bros., Splatoon NX, probably Monster Hunter 5 too on one mobile device .... gonna be destruction in Japan. 



Kotastic on 27 July 2016
AZWification said:

Less powerful than the 360? I'm going to be shocked if it's more powerful than the Dreamcast. Nintendo has fucked up.

Don't be absurd. It would only be a dream if the NX can even surpass N64 standards.



OdinHades on 27 July 2016
Kotastic said:
AZWification said:

Less powerful than the 360? I'm going to be shocked if it's more powerful than the Dreamcast. Nintendo has fucked up.

Don't be absurd. It would only be a dream if the NX can even surpass N64 standards.

Realistically, it should be somwhere between the NES and SNES.



Official member of VGC's Nintendo family, approved by the one and only RolStoppable. I feel honored.

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thismeintiel on 27 July 2016
zero129 said:
thismeintiel said:

Uh, did you even see that I placed the Vita, a PS console, along with the 3DS to illustrate the dying HH market?  Mobile gaming is a new market that is taking over HH gaming.  Casuals have moved on.  The core market, however, is sticking with home consoles.  There's really nothing that has replaced them.  The only thing that competes with consoles is PC, but those have lived side by side for decades.  That's why you have millions who are still fine with paying $399 for a console, but millions who refused to buy the 3DS until it was under $170.

You make the mistake of thinking that Ios/Android only effects the Handheld market. They effect "All" Markets.

Your 2nd mistake is your trying to use this to say Nintendo is Doomed when the same can be said for Sony.

your 3rd mistake is trying to make it look like Nintendo handhelds have been selling bad when its clear "Every" one of them have sold great!. Sure the 3DS might not sell DS numbers, But in a market thats full with Android and Ios devices its doing pretty fucking great! .

your 4th mistake involves all of the above ...

I have yet to see the impact of Android and iOS on home consoles.  We have so many ways to connect those devices to our TVs and even have Steam Machines, now, yet people still prefer home consoles.

 

Nowhere did I say Nintendo is doomed.  They will survive.  Either by going 3rd party, though, most likely they will continue their mobile gaming plans.

 

The only reason the 3DS sold great was because of the firesale early on.  Weekly sales are barely above XBO, now.  It will have to crawl its way to even 75M. Not exactly something to brag about.

 

zero129 said:
thismeintiel said:

Maybe for the die hard Nintendo fan, but any core gamer isn't gong to buy a $299 HH that's less powerful, and has less game support, than their $299 PS4/XBO.  And definitely not for the people who refused to pay $249 for the 3DS.  If anyone wants a nice Android gaming machine, they could probably just use their phone with Chromecast, or buy a $199 Nvidia Shield.

The PS4 XBO are not handheld devices. People have shown they will buy a 400+ handheld device that has shitty graphics and no exclusives (Ipad)

People buy iPads because of the Apple brand.  They have already proven they are willing to pay that price for THAT brand.  They have also proven they will not pay $249 for a Nintendo branded HH.  Do not confuse Nintendo with Apple.  Completely different brands that people value completely differently.



 

Goodnightmoon on 27 July 2016

Well I guess a new age of Nintendoom comments and threads is rising, I have the feeling that no matter how the console is, this would have happened anyways, but let them come, all of them, full VGC with them, they would be really hilarious in 1 or 2 years.

As for the power, don't be naive, this is probably on Game Boy Color level.



Soundwave on 27 July 2016

I think it's the traditional console market that's in decline.

The new generation of kids play in different ways, NX will probably be the first dedicated gaming console device actually made for that new audience, not 30-somethings still clinging to the 90s.

Creating a mobile centric device that's still powerful enough to play modern games on the go while being able to also play the mobile games that kids love (Pokemon Go, Clash of Clans, Candy Crush) all in one place I think could pay big dividends for Nintendo. 

Plus I do think something like this could be a big crowd pleaser in public ... if implimented correctly it could jump start local multiplayer by allowing local multiplayer to happen anywhere anytime in public. 



fuallmofus on 27 July 2016

because its Nintendo!



malistix1985 on 27 July 2016

1: From what we've heard so far, it will be underpowered by running with Nvidia's mobile Tegra processor which makes it even less powerful than an Xbox 360
- You are wrong its between an X360 and X1, still underpowered as a home console but powerfull as a mobile gaming device.

You are right on everything else, hybrids don't work. This should have just been a handheld, the time IS off for releasing this in the middle of way more powerfull stuff coming around and third parties won't support it unless a massive amount of people decide to buy it but lets be honest, even if all passionate Nintendo gamers buy it and there is some hype its just the WiiU or Gamecube all over again. This will not outsell the 3ds and will not outsell the Xbox1

ofcource all our stuff is based off rumours, it might be 1) based on the new more powerfull chip from NVidia or just all not be true, which would change things!




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