In light of Patcher's prediction that the game will last only 4 months due to laziness.I thought it would be a good idea to ask the VGC community how long do they think Pokemon GO will last.Now, I am not asking for crazy and baseless predictions.What I'm looking for are predictions created using facts and educated guesses.

So I decided to create this thread since I've been really attentive of the Pokemon GO sensation.The moment my girlfriend got the game I decided to take  a look at this trend since she is one of the biggest casuals and follows almost all them.I don't personally play Pokemon GO because if I'm in the mood to play Pokemon, I'd just play the real thing...But still, I was honestly surprised as to how well received it was.

The game became a cultural phenomenon overnight, it is quite extraordinary all the tons of funny pictures and stories(some creepy) it has created.Myself personally I've seen a Digglet acting as someone's d!ck, a Digglet in a pool, a guy fighting a Hitmonchan, plus all those stories of a girl finding a dead body, people getting inside police stations, people getting robbed using the app, to someone finding a couple having sex. 

But I also have to look at the game in an honest and factual way.

The reasons for its success are quite easy to spot once you see the end product out in the public.

1.Innovative gameplay.

2.Familiar characters, possibly anyone who is 30 or younger and some older parents of those 30 or younger are really familiar with the first 151 Pokemon.

But we all know that.Now let us look at the factors that will push this app game into obscurity like many others before it.

1.Time, time is probably the biggest enemy of app games, no matter how much you improve your game people will get tired of playing the same old game.

2.The addition of other gens.Some people are seeing this as a positive, but I see it as a negative 151 characters is an overwhelming amount already, adding the at least 100 Pokemon per gen(except for gen 6) will make it really hard to follow the game.

3.The factors that affected the whole franchise will most likely affect the app also.The franchise's popularity started to fade with gen 3 for the mainline games and halfway through Johto saga for the anime.(both verifiable by sales figures and animenewnetwork)

Overall I think the game will remain quite popular(not as popular as it is now) even when gen 2 is added since many people still remember many of the Pokemon from that gen, additionally, gen 2 Pokemon retain the charm that gen 1 Pokemon have.The addition of gen 3 I think is when the game will start to fade, since most casuals don't know them, besides this is the gen when Pokemon started to be designed differently and with an edgier appearance, at this point too is when the franchise starts getting really geeky(and they hate that) because by gen 3 there are already 386 Pokemon, us no-lifers can keep up with the 721 but casuals...I doubt they have the interest to keep up with even 1/4 of that.

I'm thinking about 6 months.

I'll hold a bold, definitive prediction until worldwide release, but now I'll say it can last a few months at the top of all charts, and after it drops it will be a decent performer.

Too long already.

I swear people are going full retard over this game, everywhere. It's just crazy. It fills like 25% of my social media feed.

Really annoying when you have never, and will never care about Pokémons.

Probably long-term if they can get all those updates they were talking about implemented in a timely fashion. I actually think the continuous addition of new Pokemon will keep people invested in playing regularly since the compulsion to catch them all will keep a ton of people tethered to the game.

I don't expect it to completely lose relevancy, but I think it will start to lose some mainstream attention after maybe... 3-4 months?

Still a good 2 weeks as the center of everyone's attention (or a bit less), then a couple months (could be a year) as a fairly popular game, in the top 10 of grossing charts (which is good, really.)

If Niantic updates it a appropriate moments, top 5 could be possible, in long term. (closer to 5 than 1, I'd estimate.)

That depends on what you mean by "last.' If we're talkin it bein mainstream everywhere, yeh prolly 4-6 months. But, assuming they get those updates out proper, I could see it being relevant for years at a lower scale.

TBH I can see it lasting a long time and always performing really well. Especially when they add new Pokemon. People are addicting to it. I don't see it always being at the top of the charts, but I do think it's going to always perform well.

I don't know but don't most big mobile app blockbusters like Angry Birds, Clash of Clans, Candy Crush, etc. have at least a 2 year period of being red hot?

I suppose it depends on how much they update the app and whether consumers are compelled to keep playing, but likely we are just at the beginning of this gravy train.