In light of Patcher's prediction that the game will last only 4 months due to laziness.I thought it would be a good idea to ask the VGC community how long do they think Pokemon GO will last.Now, I am not asking for crazy and baseless predictions.What I'm looking for are predictions created using facts and educated guesses.
So I decided to create this thread since I've been really attentive of the Pokemon GO sensation.The moment my girlfriend got the game I decided to take a look at this trend since she is one of the biggest casuals and follows almost all them.I don't personally play Pokemon GO because if I'm in the mood to play Pokemon, I'd just play the real thing...But still, I was honestly surprised as to how well received it was.
The game became a cultural phenomenon overnight, it is quite extraordinary all the tons of funny pictures and stories(some creepy) it has created.Myself personally I've seen a Digglet acting as someone's d!ck, a Digglet in a pool, a guy fighting a Hitmonchan, plus all those stories of a girl finding a dead body, people getting inside police stations, people getting robbed using the app, to someone finding a couple having sex. 
But I also have to look at the game in an honest and factual way.
The reasons for its success are quite easy to spot once you see the end product out in the public.
1.Innovative gameplay.
2.Familiar characters, possibly anyone who is 30 or younger and some older parents of those 30 or younger are really familiar with the first 151 Pokemon.
But we all know that.Now let us look at the factors that will push this app game into obscurity like many others before it.
1.Time, time is probably the biggest enemy of app games, no matter how much you improve your game people will get tired of playing the same old game.
2.The addition of other gens.Some people are seeing this as a positive, but I see it as a negative 151 characters is an overwhelming amount already, adding the at least 100 Pokemon per gen(except for gen 6) will make it really hard to follow the game.
3.The factors that affected the whole franchise will most likely affect the app also.The franchise's popularity started to fade with gen 3 for the mainline games and halfway through Johto saga for the anime.(both verifiable by sales figures and animenewnetwork)
Overall I think the game will remain quite popular(not as popular as it is now) even when gen 2 is added since many people still remember many of the Pokemon from that gen, additionally, gen 2 Pokemon retain the charm that gen 1 Pokemon have.The addition of gen 3 I think is when the game will start to fade, since most casuals don't know them, besides this is the gen when Pokemon started to be designed differently and with an edgier appearance, at this point too is when the franchise starts getting really geeky(and they hate that) because by gen 3 there are already 386 Pokemon, us no-lifers can keep up with the 721 but casuals...I doubt they have the interest to keep up with even 1/4 of that.
