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Forums - Sales Discussion - NPD will start tracking digital sales (July NPD delayed one week)

This is good news. Hopefully we get leaks.



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Shadow1980 said:
ZhugeEX said:

You sure about that? Considering the split in 2015 was more 70/30. 

Got a link to the report?

Page 5 in this report. The breakdown was 88% physical/12% digital, and the digital was further broken down 60/40 for bundled copies and full paid digital downloads, respectively, meaning the latter would have represented 5.45% of the market.

Now, if I may ask, what's the 2015 breakdown look like? Would you mind sharing relevant figures. How much of that 30% was for consoles? Was any of it DLC or indies? Was it revenue or unit sales? Was it new titles only or all titles? It seems a bit odd for digital versions of retail-release consoles titles to take years to get to 5-6% of the market

From a more recent GameStop Corporation investor meeting (April 2016):

 



When consoles sales get digital I'll care =p



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

btw. this change could be huge.
maybe battlefield 4 will chart in the top 10 again
and maybe minecraft will drop out of the top 10, because Microsoft does not share digital figure.

who would have guessed that suff a few weeks ago? :O



Shadow1980 said:
ZhugeEX said:

You sure about that? Considering the split in 2015 was more 70/30. 

Got a link to the report?

Page 5 in this report. The breakdown was 88% physical/12% digital, and the digital was further broken down 60/40 for bundled copies and full paid digital downloads, respectively, meaning the latter would have represented 5.45% of the market.

Now, if I may ask, what's the 2015 breakdown look like? Would you mind sharing relevant figures. How much of that 30% was for consoles? Was any of it DLC or indies? Was it revenue or unit sales? Was it new titles only or all titles? It seems a bit odd for digital versions of retail-release consoles titles to take years to get to 5-6% of the market

This is where PR spin gets really jumbled with facts. When people say that digital accounts for 20-30% (whatever) of games, they're referring to overall revenue brought by DLC and other means. Not just unit sales on stores vs digital store purchases. They both matter to publishers as they just want digital to be a larger share of their sales for increased margins.



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Shadow1980 said:
ZhugeEX said:

You sure about that? Considering the split in 2015 was more 70/30. 

Got a link to the report?

Page 5 in this report. The breakdown was 88% physical/12% digital, and the digital was further broken down 60/40 for bundled copies and full paid digital downloads, respectively, meaning the latter would have represented 5.45% of the market.

Now, if I may ask, what's the 2015 breakdown look like? Would you mind sharing relevant figures. How much of that 30% was for consoles? Was any of it DLC or indies? Was it revenue or unit sales? Was it new titles only or all titles? It seems a bit odd for digital versions of retail-release consoles titles to take years to get to 5-6% of the market

DFC are only talking about AAA releases. Not the entire retail market. 

That is a huge distinction. 

If you look at the slide deck that Gamestop published you'll see that DFC split digital into a few different categories. AAA games being its own category. That ignores all games that are not AAA. 

 

EDIT: Just read Aqua's post above. So as noted, the categories being excluded in that number are catalog game full downloads & Indie game full downloads. Hence why the 88% number isn't really useful unless you're purely looking at AAA games. 



outlawauron said:
Shadow1980 said:

Page 5 in this report. The breakdown was 88% physical/12% digital, and the digital was further broken down 60/40 for bundled copies and full paid digital downloads, respectively, meaning the latter would have represented 5.45% of the market.

Now, if I may ask, what's the 2015 breakdown look like? Would you mind sharing relevant figures. How much of that 30% was for consoles? Was any of it DLC or indies? Was it revenue or unit sales? Was it new titles only or all titles? It seems a bit odd for digital versions of retail-release consoles titles to take years to get to 5-6% of the market

This is where PR spin gets really jumbled with facts. When people say that digital accounts for 20-30% (whatever) of games, they're referring to overall revenue brought by DLC and other means. Not just unit sales on stores vs digital store purchases. They both matter to publishers as they just want digital to be a larger share of their sales for increased margins.

The problem is that it really does vary widely.

For some titles, it's absolutely correct that digital unit sales are at 20%, 30%...even as high as 50%.

But other titles, digital shares are paltry.

 

 

GameStop said three months ago that digital is going to peak at around 25-30% with the good majority continuing to prefer physical.

Unfortunately, that figure extremely variable to the extent that the "average" can't really be used as an estimate for any given title.

 

That's why I'm personally excited to see if JPMorgan Chase will receive this digital sales data so I could see firsthand how digital sales boost unit sales.



hanssolo said:
ZhugeEX said:

Digital sales were up 50% YoY. 

i meant you are the source for the 30% first week dd attachrate for halo 5 in the us. not the EA investor call stuff.
they made 2 statements. 

For example, downloads of Madden for all consoles are up 50% year on year, and we expect this trend to continue

Gen 4 Madden, for example, is well north of 50% when you look at a full-year number

I would like to see that source for Halo 5.

Because other big launches apparently top the charts often, but Halo 5 was absent from its biggest market.

http://www.alistdaily.com/media/superdata-october-2015-u-s-digital-game-sales/

US only: Halo 5 didn't make top 5 for the month despite its big launch in US.

https://www.superdataresearch.com/blog/us-digital-games-market/

Uncharted 4 tops the list worldwide, Overwatch makes top 5 on console.

https://www.superdataresearch.com/blog/digital-console-games-market/

Dyling Light and Evolve make top 5 despite being small launches.

 

Makes me question the sources.



So AAA games aren't going to get 50% market share on console anytime soon. The 32% market share shown in the EA report accounts for all games and DLC, including digital only games.



Aquamarine said:
Ruler said:
how does that work? they need to estimate the numbers like VGchartz

Kinda. NPD / EEDAR / DFC Intelligence / GfK / other research groups get direct digital data from EA, Activision, Ubisoft, Capcom, Square Enix, Take-Two, Deep Silver and Warner Bros every month. They're all linked to each other (aka. they all use / share the same data).

Everything else they do about digital sales beyond that are just estimates based off of their existing hard data, algorithms, and conversations with publishers.

 

 

I still think this digital data is going to be bad for us.

NPD is going to release a combined digital-physical chart every month, so the Top 10 ranking is now useless because they don't have digital data from smaller publishers, some exceptions like Bethesda, and 1st-party data. We're losing that accuracy that we had before in the Top 10.

And, they're getting rid of platform rankings as well in their PR report.

And I still don't think anyone but the major publishers will actually have access to this data day-one. So that means no digital leaks because the leakers won't have access to it, more obfuscated PR data, a week long delay in data release...just seems like we're getting shafted at every level here.

Not having the digital sales doesn't improve accuracy, though.



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