Selling about a million units a month is the current average but the system sold well and petered out quickly. So It may still fall out real quick and potentially wither prematurely. I do not expect Switch to do worse than Wii U or PS Vita but I don't expect Switch to outsell PSP. Will Switch be a commercial success at 80 million units? I would say so... In truth I do not expect Switch to outsell The 3DS. Maybe topping out at 61 million.

That would mean Switch would need to continue selling an average of 1 million units per month for 5 years.

Putting things in perspective PS4 on average has sold about 1.4 million units per month over 46 months to reach 63 million units. It is still tracking faster than PS2!

Over the past 5 months from March 3rd 2017 to August 3rd 2017 Switch has shipped 4.7 million units... So in actuality Switch could be selling slightly less than 1 million units per month.

Once again holiday season 2017 will likely see a huge boon for Switch, but what if it doesn't? If Switch sells less than 3 million units this holiday season I would be a bit surprised. As anticipated Switch selling more than a quarter of Wii U's lifetime sales in 5 months is more than great but will Mario keep this momentum going? We have seen some big titles already come to the platform including re-releases of Mario Kart and the 2nd highest rated game ever Zelda: BoTW.

This hasn't helped Switch outsell PS4 on a global scale (If US≠World then Japan≠World is also true).

I don't want Nintendo to fail as a company but Switch isn't what the masses wanted and it isn't what big developers wanted either... Nintendo lightening up on who gets dev units isn't a bad thing but it doesn't mean only good things are coming either.

So many people predicted failure for the NX based on nothing but the fact that Nintendo was making it.

Since these people clearly believe in making judgments based on reputation alone, it's only fair that no one should ever take anything they say seriously ever again, because of how embarrassingly wrong their predictions were.

It would be interesting to see whether the people who are stuffing bananaking's face to the brim with crow will wind up having the same done to them in this very thread.

For the sake of the crow population, I hope not,

Yea, it is interesting to see how many people have called the Switch a success after only 4 1/2 months of sales.  Granted, it has had a very good launch and is still in demand.  However,  we're going to have to wait a year or two to actually see where things settle before we can call it a success.  For all we know, sales could plummet next year and it could only go on to sell 20M-30M units.  I don't see that happening (I'm predicting it to match the 3DS's sales), but you never know what the future brings.  Especially when it comes to the HH/mobile market. 

Hell, a lot didn't think mobile would hurt the HH market so much, but it did.  Sony sold so few Vitas, they dropped out of the market.  And even without a strong competitor, the 3DS is only going to do 1/2 the sales of the DS.  Maybe even less than 1/2.

Wow. On what basis are you saying that the Switch "sold well and petered out quickly"?

Since you compared the Switch to the 3DS, let's take a look at the relevant data:

Switch after 2 quarters: 4.70 million
3DS after 2 quarters: 4.32 million

So the Switch is already doing better in shipment numbers. But, you might remember that the 3DS was severly overshipped at launch, while the Switch, six months later, is still sold out in its biggest markets. What does VGChartz have to say about this?

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=228581&page=1

Switch after 14 weeks: 4.26 million
3DS after 14 weeks: 2.64 million

At this point in its lifecylce, the 3DS was selling at half the weekly rate. But the Switch is apparently the console that has "petered out."

PS4 is only tracking faster than the PS2 if you ignore that the PS2 released 8 months earlier in Japan than it did in North America and Europe.

Additionally, the 4.7 million figure for Switch was as of June 30th: 4 months, with an average of 1.175 million per month.

Sine when is the metric for success outselling the PS4 on a global scale?

Setting that aside, the PS4 is currently in its peak year, so a comparison against the Switch's first year makes little sense. Like all Nintendo handhelds, the Switch will sell better after its first year as the stock issues are sorted out, the game library expands, and revisions are introduced.

Also, it's interesting that you mentioned the US specifically, since the Switch is actually ahead of the PS4's first year there, even with two fewer months on the market.

From the monthly NPD archives: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=230527&page=1

On top of that, the Switch is matching the 3DS in its best market, Japan, where it has sold 23 million and will likely reach 24 million by the end of its lifecycle.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=226216&page=1

The Switch is already selling very well in the two largest markets on the planet.

If the Switch isn't what the masses wanted, why is it selling so much better than the 3DS, a console which will pass 70 million when all is said and done? How much more does a console need to sell to be considered mass market?

Big developers didn't want the DS or Wii either, and that didn't stop them from being huge successes. Nintendo platforms live and die on their first party support. When Nintendo makes software that is clearly playing it safe (3DS) or completely ignoring what the market wants (GameCube) or both (Wii U) then their consoles have limited sales potential. But with Breath of the Wild and Super Mario Odyssey releasing in the same year--two enormous, ambitious, and creative games--Nintendo isn't yet showing any signs of repeating what caused their previous failures.

Soooo... let's wait to call the device a success until it sold 100M. Did you had the same patience with PS4? I think we should wait, sales could die down fast on that too.

I agree when the only current platform tracking ahead of the NS is the PS4 and by a close margin then you know it's doing well, then we factor in that NS has no other competitor in the portable market and will be the only platform Nintendo focuses on in future it's not rocket science that it has a good future ahead of it.

All of this is before thing like a price cut and all as well as many notable first party titles like AC and Pokemon (both potential 10m sellers at that) yet to arrive as well if he truly believes in that stance then lets put out money where our mouths are and bet on whether sales drop like a stone or not, I guarantee you not many people who were/are skeptical will take the bet at this point.

"VR, 4K, third parties, many exclusives, streaming and already established install bases (30M+ for XB and 60M+ for PS) by the time the NX will release" Correct, even the sales figures.

"Mark my words, the NX will be outdated compared to them, and its library will be extremely lacking." Still correct.


Only problem is that despite all these it's selling really well.

Hahahahaha what? Nintendos launch month is higher than PS4's 6th month whilst both have been supply constrained? Are you really THAT dishonest?

The fact that NS is behind on the last 2 months are a sign of things to come, don't get carried away the Switch won't get close to beating the PS4. 

Yes, seemingly gaming forum analysts focus in stuff that doesn't matter as much.