I was joking. It was a reaction to all the 360 fanboys saying that at this rate it will take the PS3 10 years to pass the 360.

Problem is there a lot of people posting wild guesses but few that actually did the maths or most people would realize their predictions are totally unrealistics...

Take last week total world wide numbers.

Now lets make the best case prevision for the Wii.

From now forwards :

Wii weekly sales : 400k ( 400k is like the best week the Wii has had since Januray 1st, in average the sales are lower and they can't really be much higher due to production..)
Xbox360 weekly sales : 150k ( maybe a little above average sales since january)
PS3 weekly sales : 175k ( it's been average sales since January)

In 26 weeks from now you would have :

Wii: 32.64 Millions 47.1% marketshare
Xbox360 : 21.47 Millions 31% market share
PS3 : 14.71 Millions 22% market share.

In 1 year from now ?

Wii : 43.04 Millions, 48.8% market share
Xbox360 : 25.37 Millions, 28.8% Market share
PS3 : 19.79 Millions, 22.4% Market share.

Do the same exercise with more realist numbers :

Wii weekly sales : 300k ( average since Jan 1st)

Xbox360 :  135k (average since Jan 1st)

PS3 : 175K (average since Jan 1st)

26 weeks from now you have :

Wii :30.24 Millions 45.4%

XBox360 : 21.11 Millions 31.7 %

PS3 : 15.24 Millions 22.9% 

1 year from now you have : 

Wii : 38.04 Millions, 46.1%

Xbox360 : 24.62 Millions 29.9%

PS3 : 19.79 Millions 24% 

Wii would hit 45% 16 weeks from now..

That is of course totally ignoring any sales boost the PS3 and Xbox360 are currently having as well as GTAIV or any other mega title..

Now look at those numbers again and tell me how you have Wii reaching 50% marketshare this summer or even at the end of the year..............

Most people predict that Nintendo will increase prediction in april/may and will sell over 500k a week worldwide, and in Christmas over a million a week.

A thread going on about the market share of the Wii unbelievable. What next lol.

Wouldn't you agree that Wii reaching over 50% market share would be significant?

 Like what leo-j said that will never happen. PS3 is on the rise. Oh damn the Wii is eating up the XBox 360's market share too. I say Wii will get to 47% tops.

Hardware sales since January the 5th :

Wii : 3,883,726 46.7%
Xbox360 : 1,875,902 22.5%
PS3 : 2,549,569 30.8%

Seeing Wii current market share and the number of consoles already out, the Wii needs to sell over 55% market share for a long period of time to ever hope of reaching 50% market share one day. That is hardly the case.........
With the current sales it won't even reach 45% in the next year or so......

By comparison during 2007 Wii had a 50.9% share of the console sales.

 Fixed.

The PS3 doesn't have the power to maintain even these sales unless it sees a $100 price drop every year. And the 360 is fast reaching its own market saturation. The Wii's limitation is production, the 360/PS3's limitation is appeal. Guess which has more promise?

Doubters and Skeptics alike, I'm sorry to inform you, the Wii will reach 50% market share.