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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - How many NX's does Nintendo need to sell for it to be considered a success?

 

For the NX to be a success how many units need to be sold?

10-20 million 8 1.91%
 
20-30 million 52 12.44%
 
30-40 million 137 32.78%
 
40-50 million 84 20.10%
 
50-60 million 93 22.25%
 
It doesnt matter what it sells NINTENDOOM! 27 6.46%
 
Whats an NX? 17 4.07%
 
Total:418
hershel_layton on 16 May 2016

High attach rates will allow 30 million to be acceptable. Anything more will be great, anything less will spell doom.



 

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12/22/2016- Made a bet with Ganoncrotch that the first 6 months of 2017 will be worse than 2016. A poll will be made to determine the winner. Loser has to take a picture of them imitating their profile picture.

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Manlytears on 16 May 2016

30 million, just because Nintendo makes lot's of money on exclusives. Right now, any other console whit these number would be a failure, but nintendo just needs 30M to have something successful.



ironmanDX on 16 May 2016

Nintendo just need to reverse the trend. Home console only, 30 million!

Handheld will more than likely decline. I think they'll give it one more good shot though before going mobile. 50 million lifetime.



Alby_da_Wolf on 16 May 2016
RolStoppable said:
superchunk said:
This really depends on the definition of success. As long as its profitable, then its worth-while to do. So it then comes down to other indications of success. If it is based on consumer acceptance or market leadership, then it isn't as simple as selling X MM. It has a lot of other variables.

For instance, I look at Wii U. As a comparison to the sales of other Nintendo consoles, then it is not 'successful'. But in terms of profitability and lessons learned, it is successful.

It's about lessons being learned, huh? Well then, you are a failure. Your Nintendo fanboyism continues to mess up your brain.

On topic: More than the 3DS and Wii U combined, coupled with a few billion dollars of profit. Setting the bar for success low only makes people complacent.

Ninty itself must be more ambitious than its most complacent fans, otherwise it will fail, but if NX will be a combined device (or it will offer one amongst available SKUs), asking to outsell 3DS and Wii U combined would be excessive, not only because portables are declining, but also because all Ninty users that own both Wii U and 3DS should be, as they actually are, single potential users for NX (although very likely  single users of one of the most complete SKUs that Ninty will offer).  The intersection of current user sets isn't empty, so the number of total Ninty users is lower than the sum of the number of elements of each set.



Stwike him, Centuwion. Stwike him vewy wuffly! (Pontius Pilate, "Life of Brian")
A fart without stink is like a sky without stars.
TGS, Third Grade Shooter: brand new genre invented by Kevin Butler exclusively for Natal WiiToo Kinect. PEW! PEW-PEW-PEW!   


NobleTeam360 on 16 May 2016

30-40 million seems about right to me.



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Alby_da_Wolf on 16 May 2016
RolStoppable said:
Alby_da_Wolf said:

Ninty itself must be more ambitious than its most complacent fans, otherwise it will fail, but if NX will be a combined device (or it will offer one amongst available SKUs), asking to outsell 3DS and Wii U combined would be excessive, not only because portables are declining, but also because all Ninty users that own both Wii U and 3DS should be, as they actually are, single potential users for NX (although very likely  single users of one of the most complete SKUs that Ninty will offer).  The intersection of current user sets isn't empty, so the number of total Ninty users is lower than the sum of the number of elements of each set.

Any way you look at it, Nintendo's goal has to be to sell NX to more people than Wii U and 3DS owners. That isn't asking for too much.

OK, combined owners is a little less difficult goal than combined previous gen device numbers, and it's reasonable to expect that a decent improvement from Wii U sales should more than make up for portable sales decline, so yes, I agree on this. Financially the goal could most probably be much lower, but if Ninty wants to stay relevant in gaming it must aim for more.



Stwike him, Centuwion. Stwike him vewy wuffly! (Pontius Pilate, "Life of Brian")
A fart without stink is like a sky without stars.
TGS, Third Grade Shooter: brand new genre invented by Kevin Butler exclusively for Natal WiiToo Kinect. PEW! PEW-PEW-PEW!   


Alby_da_Wolf on 16 May 2016
RolStoppable said:
Alby_da_Wolf said:

OK, combined owners is a little less difficult goal than combined previous gen device numbers, and it's reasonable to expect that a decent improvement from Wii U sales should more than make up for portable sales decline, so yes, I agree on this. Financially the goal could most probably be much lower, but if Ninty wants to stay relevant in gaming it must aim for more.

No, I didn't mean to make an adjustment to my previous numbers. You misunderstood.

I don't care about a breakdown of unique Wii U and 3DS owners. It doesn't matter. The minimum goal has to be to sell more hardware units than with the Wii U and 3DS, because fully expecting further decline is pretty much the equivalent of giving up.

Oh. But you cannot expect people that bought a Wii U and a 3DS to buy two NWs each, and while home consoles sales  can and must be bettered a lot compared to Wii U, a decline in portables doesn't look avoidable, unless it turn out that 3DS too performed a lot lower than its full potential.
But wait, if NX will be a portable with an optional docking station providing more GPU power and connections for home use, will you consider portable NX plus docking station as two HW units? If yes, I can agree on your numbers again.



Stwike him, Centuwion. Stwike him vewy wuffly! (Pontius Pilate, "Life of Brian")
A fart without stink is like a sky without stars.
TGS, Third Grade Shooter: brand new genre invented by Kevin Butler exclusively for Natal WiiToo Kinect. PEW! PEW-PEW-PEW!   


0D0 on 16 May 2016

Minimum figures:

If stationary: 40m
If portable: 60m
If hybrid: 80m

20m for a home console could be profitable, yes, but I don't think it's enough to keep Nintendo in the business.



God bless You.

My Total Sales prediction for PS4 by the end of 2021: 110m+

When PS4 will hit 100m consoles sold: Before Christmas 2019

There were three ravens sat on a tree / They were as blacke as they might be / The one of them said to his mate, Where shall we our breakfast take?


Alby_da_Wolf on 16 May 2016
RolStoppable said:
Alby_da_Wolf said:

Oh. But you cannot expect people that bought a Wii U and a 3DS to buy two NWs each, and while home consoles performance  can and must be bettered a lot compared to Wii U, a decline in portable doesn't look avoidable, unless it turn out that 3DS too performed a lot lower than its full potential.
But wait, if NX will be a portable with an optional docking station providing more GPU power and connections for home use, will you consider portable NX plus docking station as two HW units? If yes, I can agree on your numbers again.

Not everyone who owned both a Wii U and 3DS will buy two NX devices, yes. But do you still not get it? Nintendo is supposed to sell NX also to people who own neither a Wii U or a 3DS.

I wouldn't count docking stations and/or supplemental computing devices as separate NX units.

Sure I get it, success would be if Ninty sells NX also to new users and these ones exceed those that abandon Ninty. Surely beating also combined numbers of devices would be preferable, but I'd consider, if not a full success, at least already not a failure beating the old number of users. Maybe the really critical part of a unified library is another one, managing to beat the combined SW sales of the old devices. Should prevail a typically portable attach rate, it would be a huge drop in total SW sales compared to the previous gens.



Stwike him, Centuwion. Stwike him vewy wuffly! (Pontius Pilate, "Life of Brian")
A fart without stink is like a sky without stars.
TGS, Third Grade Shooter: brand new genre invented by Kevin Butler exclusively for Natal WiiToo Kinect. PEW! PEW-PEW-PEW!   


barneystinson69 on 16 May 2016

If its a console, I'd hope it does at least 30 million. Handheld (though I doubt it) should be 50 million.



Made a bet with LipeJJ and HylianYoshi that the XB1 will reach 30 million before Wii U reaches 15 million. Loser has to get avatar picked by winner for 6 months (or if I lose, either 6 months avatar control for both Lipe and Hylian, or my patrick avatar comes back forever).