Ultimately it matters if it is at least profitable, but at least 30 mil would be an acceptable number I think. Hopefully it does more than that.

The N64 era seems so nice ... 33 million N64s, lol. I wish MS would just leave the industry. Not because they make bad products, but because c'mon man you don't need this industry. It's like rich kid taking the job of someone who really needs that job just for fun.

Nintendo needs the game business, MS should focus on PC gaming and combating Steam, they're never going to beat Sony unless Sony does something incredibly stupid again (wouldn't hold my breath MS).

With MS out Nintendo could have some much needed breathing room.

If the NX console sells above 25 million I think that's successful enough for Nintendo to keep making consoles.

It's definitely a bold prediction, but it's absolutely not a prediction that comes from nothing. Nintendo's past lack of success has absolutely nothing to do with its future. They sold 100m Wiis after 22m GCNs. My reason for being bullish is entirely based off of the marketability of the product they've been describing over the past few years. If it is what they've been saying it will be, that platform is going to be absolutely massive, and that includes the home console. The only reason the Wii didn't sell more is because it had a massive decline in sales that happened abruptly because they couldn't maintain interest in motion gaming long term, and that was without the mainstream audience. The platform they are building with NX will not have that problem at all.

The only reason to believe they wouldn't sell a lot is to pretend that Nintendo fucking up is a hardware inevitability. It is not. Nintendo's past hardware didn't fail to sell "because Nintendo." They failed because they had massive design flaws that crippled their marketability and software output. To pretend that Nintendo fucking up their hardware is an inevitability when Nintendo has made massively successful hardware every generation that they've made duds is ignoring reality. The things they've been saying about the NX to describe how it functions leaves very little room for messing up the hardware. Unless someone thinks the NX will be as powerful as the Wii U, we have more than enough reason to believe that the NX won't have massive design flaws that will cripple it's marketability and software output. Without those factors inhibiting its success, with with smart branding, with well designed hardware, it's going to sell like a... Well, like a Wii on launch day.

I have no problem with people saying my prediction is bold. Even I say it's bullish. But bullish and John Lucas are two completely opposing ends of the spectrum. One is intelligently confident and one is, with all due respect, delusionally optimistic.

If stationary: 25m
If portable: 55m
If hybrid: 70m

But it's also a question about how much software is sold on the platform

40-50 if it's only the home console, at least 100 if it's an hybrid console.

If Nintendo had one hardware screw-up OK, I think they would get more of the benefit of the doubt.

But when you fuck up 3/4 times ... I mean, if a friend forgets to pay you back once, OK you probably let it slide, but if he asks for money 4 times and has failed to pay you back 3/4 times, are you going to give him money again? Probably not.

Nintendo's made catastrophic design decisions with 3/4 of their last consoles, and even with the Wii they mismanaged that terribly towards the end of its product cycle and subsequently lost that entire audience which is almost unbelievable (how do you make 85 million users just disapear in a span of 2 years?). When all that happens, sure maybe the quesiton does need to be asked is there a systemic problem with Nintendo's decision making? Because this many mistakes and such egregiously terrible mistakes at that (who the fuck seriously thought PURPLE was a good color for a game console in the 2000s? Like what planet are you living on?).

Saying they can't possibly screw up next gen is akin to saying a guy who's raging alcoholic will never drink again because you think he was sober last weekend.

So skepticism against Nintendo is fairly warranted. It's not just specifically skepticism against Nintendo it's also that third parties won't support Nintendo, which is it's own dysfunctional little relationship.

7 millions in the first year.
40+ millions lifetime

It's not. For them 25 would be a failure. And they would be right. It's 40+ millions

25 is probably too close to the GameCube which Nintendo has basically admitted was a failure.

But 30 would in line with the N64, which is a clear notch better.