Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Prediction: NX will do better than N64 and outsell X1 lifetime...

binary solo said:
Shiken said:

I am speaking as if NX were a home console only.  HOWEVER if it is a hybrid it would still be counted the same way as long as it plays the same games with cross functionality.  NX is NX and if it interests gamers in a way that will sell more than X1 and N64, then it is more successful, period.  I will not deduct points for innovation that pays off.

Well, if it's a home console only and hold no interests for the handheld gamer then I doubt it will sell better than N64 or Xb one (depending on how much longer Xb one stays on the market).

It's not a question of deducting points, it's a question of what is a logical comparison. If the NX primarily sells to handheld gamers then it is more logical to assess its success as a handheld device. 3DS is more successful than N64 and Xb one, but no one ever compares them becuase they do not sell in the same gamer market and thus such a comparison is meaningless. Similarly one needs to analyse where NX sales are coming from in order to make sensible comparisons to past generations and to contemporary competition (if there is any). If NX is 85% selling for its handheld functionality then it is not competing with Xb one for sales and it's not comparable to past gen home consoles. 

I have no idea what NX is likely to be, but if it's effectively a handheld with a TV docking station and a controller then I would call it an enhanced handheld rather than a home console and I would analyse its performance relative to the history of handheld devices.

Making a lot of assumptions about the interest of the consumer in the home console market with Ninty.  The failure of the WiiU had a lot more to it than "lack of interest".  Shitty advertising, too much of a retro style focus with all the 2D platformers, not enough 3rd party support and no effort to rectify the situation, lack of games first year, etc.

 

If they fix these things by no means will it do PS4 sales, but they have enough to offer in order to generate more interest than the X1.  While I am making assumtions, yours are just as outlandish with no concrete grounds to back them up (which is the whole point of this thread).  All the pointless doom threads with nothing to back them up, then when a positive one comes out people wanna be like "nope not gonna happen, impossible, *insert hypocritical comment here*".

 

I stand by my prediction, but I am just simply pointing out you have no more evidence of it being wrong than I do of being right.  If it plays out like I think it will, you will see.  And believe me, I am going to necro the crap out of this thread when I am right.  If I am not I won't have to, as I am sure someone else will do it for me lol.  XD



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That's weak, I expect nothing less than 240 MILLION units, & the PS4 and Xone EASILY beaten. You heard it here first, folks!

Mummelmann



Miyamotoo said:
DM235 said:
I predict that the NX will do better than Wii U, but worse than N64.

The next few generations of phones will be better than what Nintendo is willing to make for a handheld (mainly because not enough people will be willing to pay more than $200 for a handheld). Couple this with the huge number of hand-me down smart phones, I see the next generation being the last generation of handheld consoles.

On the home console front, I think the NX will be backwards compatible with the Wii U. I think that Nintendo has no choice but to do this, as releasing the NX mid-generation, with back catalog of games to support it, would cause it to fail instantly. Even with backwards compatibility, it will only do well for about 3 years, until the PS5 and XBox Two are released.

Of Course Nintendo has chose not to include backwards compatibility to NX. Backward compatibility in hardware means higher price of that hardware or weaker hardware for same price without BC. Nintendo can easily port some of Wii U games, we already know Zelda is coming and Smash Bros is almost certainly, definitely there will be some more Wii U ports. Also Nintendo can have have strong launch and 1st year line up easily without BC, people forgetting that last big game for Wii U was announced at E3 2014, almost every Nintendo team is on track to release its new game in NX first year.

Wii U had BC but failed, PS4/XB1 didnt and they actually selling better than PS3/XB360. Backward Compatibility is not important at all like some people assuming, especially today when we have so much ports and remasters of almost evre bigger or better game.

My thoughts are that Nintendo doesn't have enough time to remaster everything, including 3rd party games.  A strong launch line up would still look weak comparted to the existing libraries on the PS4 and XBOne.  Typically, people can overlook the weaker library if the console offers something new (such as better graphics, as is typical with a new generation), but so far the rumours about the NX indicate that it may be on par or slightly better than a PS4.



Landguy said:
Shiken said:

The X1 is going drop off in sales hard if Gears 4 doesn't do anything, and we already saw Halo fail.  The PS4 has everything worth while that is on the X1 for the most part.  The NX can EASILY pass X1 if Nintendo does it right.  It really is not that hard a thing to do.

What if the xb1.5 actually comes out?  Or the ps4k? clearly things may change for all consoles in the next few months.  the nx could be an also ran again come march of next year...

Uptadet version of the consoles will not make it sell more What it will make is sell again for Hardcore fans and make the sales drop later, or drop in less %.

Both will be the same console because both will need to have the same games of the normal version and the normal version must be able to play the games, People don't want power they want games if something is Expensive but more powerful and have the same games the Xbox One have this will not  rise the sales.

a Slim Version would do more for both consoles than a Updated version.



If they can hit

30 million NX consoles

55-60 million NX portables

Assuming a tiered hardware family like above ... I think Nintendo would take that and run.

They're probably never going to be the market leader again but if they can maintain a userbase in that range, that would be a healthy amount to make a decent profit factoring in also money from the smartphone business and licensing opportunities.

But they seriously need to step up their console game, going from 14 million Wii Us to more than double that with NX will not be easy.

Japan must remain portable crazy too, that's going to be the crux of the portable market going forward with Europe and North American kids gone smartphone crazy.



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NO pricing, No specs, No real details of any substance. It is not a prediction you're making, it is a wild guess.



DM235 said:
Miyamotoo said:

Of Course Nintendo has chose not to include backwards compatibility to NX. Backward compatibility in hardware means higher price of that hardware or weaker hardware for same price without BC. Nintendo can easily port some of Wii U games, we already know Zelda is coming and Smash Bros is almost certainly, definitely there will be some more Wii U ports. Also Nintendo can have have strong launch and 1st year line up easily without BC, people forgetting that last big game for Wii U was announced at E3 2014, almost every Nintendo team is on track to release its new game in NX first year.

Wii U had BC but failed, PS4/XB1 didnt and they actually selling better than PS3/XB360. Backward Compatibility is not important at all like some people assuming, especially today when we have so much ports and remasters of almost evre bigger or better game.

My thoughts are that Nintendo doesn't have enough time to remaster everything, including 3rd party games.  A strong launch line up would still look weak comparted to the existing libraries on the PS4 and XBOne.  Typically, people can overlook the weaker library if the console offers something new (such as better graphics, as is typical with a new generation), but so far the rumours about the NX indicate that it may be on par or slightly better than a PS4.

There is no need to remaster everything, point is to remaster key titles (like Zelda and Smash), and they have plenty of time, Nintendo doesn't need to do remasters intarly, remasters can be done buy 3rd parties outside company. Recent remasters like Zelda MM 3D and TP HD are done buy companies outside Nintendo, also Smash Bros 4 port is rumoured that is handled by Namco Bandai.

Of Course that library of 3.5 years old consoles will be stronger than library of new console, but again NX can easily have very strong launch and 1st year games.

Yes it seems that NX will have similar power like PS4, but people forgetting when Nintendo talkabout NX they always say "new concept", even if that new concept is just sharing games with Nintendo handheld that is pretty good.



Soundwave said:

Japan must remain portable crazy too, that's going to be the crux of the portable market going forward with Europe and North American kids gone smartphone crazy.

Handhelds are certainly more popular in Japan than the west but 3DS has still done solid numbers outside of Japan, about 37.5 million according to the most recent shipment numbers.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

No way, it will even struggle to reach Wii-U levels because they are doing everything wrong once again. A gimicky controller that nobody wants, no games, quickly fading 3rd party support, least powerful console on the market, behind X1-2 and PS4 Neo.



etking said:

No way, it will even struggle to reach Wii-U levels because they are doing everything wrong once again. A gimicky controller that nobody wants, no games, quickly fading 3rd party support, least powerful console on the market, behind X1-2 and PS4 Neo.

umm what are these things based on?



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.