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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Prediction: NX will do better than N64 and outsell X1 lifetime...

zorg1000 on 12 May 2016
Soundwave said:
zorg1000 said:

Handhelds are certainly more popular in Japan than the west but 3DS has still done solid numbers outside of Japan, about 37.5 million according to the most recent shipment numbers.

The split for 3DS is 37.5 mill outside of Japan vs. 20 mill for Japan (roughly).

That's a monumental drop off from the DS and GBA which huge numbers in the West. GBA alone sold almost 42 million in just the Americas and that was with abbreviated life cycle too.

And likely there will be continued erosion of Nintendo's portable market in the West, the 3DS benefitted from launching just before cheapo tablets (such that a kid can have their own) started flooding the market. In 2011, all you could really get was an iPad, and an iPad was like $500, not too many 8-year-olds with that, but today you can get a kid a 7 or 8 inch tablet for under $100 that they can play touch games and watch cartoons on to their heart's content.

I know its a large drop off from previous generations, but 40+ million when all is said and done is not a bad number in itself. Lifetime 3DS sales will probably be something like 23-24m in Japan, 22 million in Americas, 20 million in others so a relatively even split per region.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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Soundwave on 12 May 2016
zorg1000 said:
Soundwave said:

The split for 3DS is 37.5 mill outside of Japan vs. 20 mill for Japan (roughly).

That's a monumental drop off from the DS and GBA which huge numbers in the West. GBA alone sold almost 42 million in just the Americas and that was with abbreviated life cycle too.

And likely there will be continued erosion of Nintendo's portable market in the West, the 3DS benefitted from launching just before cheapo tablets (such that a kid can have their own) started flooding the market. In 2011, all you could really get was an iPad, and an iPad was like $500, not too many 8-year-olds with that, but today you can get a kid a 7 or 8 inch tablet for under $100 that they can play touch games and watch cartoons on to their heart's content.

I know its a large drop off from previous generations, but 40+ million when all is said and done is not a bad number in itself. Lifetime 3DS sales will probably be something like 23-24m in Japan, 22 million in Americas, 20 million in others so a relatively even split per region.

The bigger question is where is this market going and its been declining hard in the Americas and Europe, the second half of the 3DS cycle has not been strong in the West hardware sales wise. NX won't have the benefit of smartphones/tablets still being a relative luxury item for adults-mostly when it launches like the 3DS did.



zorg1000 on 12 May 2016
Soundwave said:
zorg1000 said:

I know its a large drop off from previous generations, but 40+ million when all is said and done is not a bad number in itself. Lifetime 3DS sales will probably be something like 23-24m in Japan, 22 million in Americas, 20 million in others so a relatively even split per region.

The bigger question is where is this market going and its been declining hard in the Americas and Europe, the second half of the 3DS cycle has not been strong in the West hardware sales wise. NX won't have the benefit of smartphones/tablets still being a relative luxury item for adults-mostly when it launches like the 3DS did.

I'm glad you brought up the decline from 1st half to 2nd half of 3DS life, did you know that it has had a more sever drop in Japan?

3DS shipments in Japan

February 2011 to September 2013-13.33 million

October 2013 to March 2016-7.99 million

3DS shipments outside Japan

March 2011 to September 2013-21.65 million

October 2013 to March 2016-15.88 million

Thats about a 40% decline in Japan vs a 27% decline outside of Japan.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Soundwave on 12 May 2016
zorg1000 said:
Soundwave said:

The bigger question is where is this market going and its been declining hard in the Americas and Europe, the second half of the 3DS cycle has not been strong in the West hardware sales wise. NX won't have the benefit of smartphones/tablets still being a relative luxury item for adults-mostly when it launches like the 3DS did.

I'm glad you brought up the decline from 1st half to 2nd half of 3DS life, did you know that it has had a more sever drop in Japan?

3DS shipments in Japan

February 2011 to September 2013-13.33 million

October 2013 to March 2016-7.99 million

3DS shipments outside Japan

March 2011 to September 2013-21.65 million

October 2013 to March 2016-15.88 million

Thats about a 40% decline in Japan vs a 27% decline outside of Japan.

Not sure if either of those numbers are great for Nintendo, lol. They need Japan to hold at 20 million Nintendo portables, if that starts to decline below that ... they have problems.

In the West the 3DS never really ever was a monster seller. It had that nice spike for its first holiday after Nintendo made the monster price cut and Mario Kart 7 + Mario 3D Land ... but that was basically the peak holiday season I think.



zorg1000 on 12 May 2016
Soundwave said:
zorg1000 said:

I'm glad you brought up the decline from 1st half to 2nd half of 3DS life, did you know that it has had a more sever drop in Japan?

3DS shipments in Japan

February 2011 to September 2013-13.33 million

October 2013 to March 2016-7.99 million

3DS shipments outside Japan

March 2011 to September 2013-21.65 million

October 2013 to March 2016-15.88 million

Thats about a 40% decline in Japan vs a 27% decline outside of Japan.

Not sure if either of those numbers are great for Nintendo, lol. They need Japan to hold at 20 million Nintendo portables, if that starts to decline below that ... they have problems.

Ya, 3DS level sales for the portable is probably close to the minimum they can afford if they dont have a successful home console to go along with it.

My point was that you said Japan is basically what is keeping their handhels afloat which isnt true since it only accounts for about 35% of sales and has had a larger drop in the 2nd half of its life compared to the west.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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CosmicSex on 12 May 2016

Don't you guys ever get worried is that if you speculate too much you will just end up letting yourself down? I believe best thing to do it's just wait and see. If you go in with no expectations you are bound to be pleased with the results. And if not at least you won't feel let down.



Soundwave on 12 May 2016
CosmicSex said:
Don't you guys ever get worried is that if you speculate too much you will just end up letting yourself down? I believe best thing to do it's just wait and see. If you go in with no expectations you are bound to be pleased with the results. And if not at least you won't feel let down.

I just range from being optimistic on some days to on other days realizing Nintendo is run by ... well Nintendo and they probably will fuck this up.



Swordmasterman on 12 May 2016
CosmicSex said:
Don't you guys ever get worried is that if you speculate too much you will just end up letting yourself down? I believe best thing to do it's just wait and see. If you go in with no expectations you are bound to be pleased with the results. And if not at least you won't feel let down.

I Have never seen anything like the NX Rumors, they will last  until the NX's Launch.



DM235 on 12 May 2016
Miyamotoo said:
DM235 said:

My thoughts are that Nintendo doesn't have enough time to remaster everything, including 3rd party games.  A strong launch line up would still look weak comparted to the existing libraries on the PS4 and XBOne.  Typically, people can overlook the weaker library if the console offers something new (such as better graphics, as is typical with a new generation), but so far the rumours about the NX indicate that it may be on par or slightly better than a PS4.

There is no need to remaster everything, point is to remaster key titles (like Zelda and Smash), and they have plenty of time, Nintendo doesn't need to do remasters intarly, remasters can be done buy 3rd parties outside company. Recent remasters like Zelda MM 3D and TP HD are done buy companies outside Nintendo, also Smash Bros 4 port is rumoured that is handled by Namco Bandai.

Of Course that library of 3.5 years old consoles will be stronger than library of new console, but again NX can easily have very strong launch and 1st year games.

Yes it seems that NX will have similar power like PS4, but people forgetting when Nintendo talkabout NX they always say "new concept", even if that new concept is just sharing games with Nintendo handheld that is pretty good.

In my opinion, the key titles would also have to include Mario Kart 8, unless they are already working on a Mario Kart NX release.  Also, either a port of Super Mario 3D World or the next Mario game (Galaxy NX?).  I really think that their line up needs to be the best all star launch line up ever, just to reverse the trend of declining Nintendo home console sales.

I know that Nintendo can do cool new concepts, but the mid-generation launch means they have to do that much more to win back their fans (at least in my opinion).



Miyamotoo on 13 May 2016
DM235 said:
Miyamotoo said:

There is no need to remaster everything, point is to remaster key titles (like Zelda and Smash), and they have plenty of time, Nintendo doesn't need to do remasters intarly, remasters can be done buy 3rd parties outside company. Recent remasters like Zelda MM 3D and TP HD are done buy companies outside Nintendo, also Smash Bros 4 port is rumoured that is handled by Namco Bandai.

Of Course that library of 3.5 years old consoles will be stronger than library of new console, but again NX can easily have very strong launch and 1st year games.

Yes it seems that NX will have similar power like PS4, but people forgetting when Nintendo talkabout NX they always say "new concept", even if that new concept is just sharing games with Nintendo handheld that is pretty good.

In my opinion, the key titles would also have to include Mario Kart 8, unless they are already working on a Mario Kart NX release.  Also, either a port of Super Mario 3D World or the next Mario game (Galaxy NX?).  I really think that their line up needs to be the best all star launch line up ever, just to reverse the trend of declining Nintendo home console sales.

I know that Nintendo can do cool new concepts, but the mid-generation launch means they have to do that much more to win back their fans (at least in my opinion).

New Mario Kart will be in any case in first or second year of NX life, so there si no relly point to port MK8. New 3D Mario will be launch or first year title, so there is also no point to port SM3DW.

I agree because they releasing console in mid gen they need really strong launch and 1st year lineup and espacily after failure of Wii U, but point is they can easily have really strong launch and 1st year lineup and I definitely expecting that.