Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Prediction: NX will do better than N64 and outsell X1 lifetime...

Landguy said:
Shiken said:

The X1 is going drop off in sales hard if Gears 4 doesn't do anything, and we already saw Halo fail.  The PS4 has everything worth while that is on the X1 for the most part.  The NX can EASILY pass X1 if Nintendo does it right.  It really is not that hard a thing to do.

What if the xb1.5 actually comes out?  Or the ps4k? clearly things may change for all consoles in the next few months.  the nx could be an also ran again come march of next year...

PS4k will further prove my point that X1 will drop in sales.  Seriously at this point it is obvious where most upgrades will do.  X1 and PS4 have a near identical library and nothing is going to slow Playstation dominance this gen.

 

The NX however will have a much larger library that van only be found there, as it is with all Nintendo consoles (even the failure that is WiiU).  The NX has the potential to be the side console that people will want next to their PS4 because it actually has something new to offer.  The X1 or X1.5...not so much.



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Bold prediction. Expect this to be bumped in a few years when you're most likely wrong.



Made a bet with LipeJJ and HylianYoshi that the XB1 will reach 30 million before Wii U reaches 15 million. Loser has to get avatar picked by winner for 6 months (or if I lose, either 6 months avatar control for both Lipe and Hylian, or my patrick avatar comes back forever).

If NX serves as both a handheld and home console how does one measure it against the past? Is it fair to compare it to the N64 or any other past N home consoles (leaving aside non-N consoles) when all those past consoles targetted a narrower market?

If, as most suspect, NX is targeting home console and handheld gamers is it more apples to apples to compare N64+ Game Boy sales during the N64 years?

Arguably, because in pretty much every generation Nintendo's handheld hardware has sold better than its home console hardware, NX should be primarily tracked as a handheld device, with home console application. Thus its sales should be compared to past gen handheld devices rather than home console devices. And in terms of head to head 9th gen sales (assuming Xb one 2 and PS5 ever happen) it's the lone handheld on the market and it is not tracked as a home console along with whatever SOny and MS put out.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

barneystinson69 said:

Bold prediction. Expect this to be bumped in a few years when you're most likely wrong.

I will bump it myself as I am most likely right.



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binary solo said:
If NX serves as both a handheld and home console how does one measure it against the past? Is it fair to compare it to the N64 or any other past N home consoles (leaving aside non-N consoles) when all those past consoles targetted a narrower market?

If, as most suspect, NX is targeting home console and handheld gamers is it more apples to apples to compare N64+ Game Boy sales during the N64 years?

Arguably, because in pretty much every generation Nintendo's handheld hardware has sold better than its home console hardware, NX should be primarily tracked as a handheld device, with home console application. Thus its sales should be compared to past gen handheld devices rather than home console devices. And in terms of head to head 9th gen sales (assuming Xb one 2 and PS5 ever happen) it's the lone handheld on the market and it is not tracked as a home console along with whatever SOny and MS put out.

I am speaking as if NX were a home console only.  HOWEVER if it is a hybrid it would still be counted the same way as long as it plays the same games with cross functionality.  NX is NX and if it interests gamers in a way that will sell more than X1 and N64, then it is more successful, period.  I will not deduct points for innovation that pays off.



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Shiken said:
binary solo said:
If NX serves as both a handheld and home console how does one measure it against the past? Is it fair to compare it to the N64 or any other past N home consoles (leaving aside non-N consoles) when all those past consoles targetted a narrower market?

If, as most suspect, NX is targeting home console and handheld gamers is it more apples to apples to compare N64+ Game Boy sales during the N64 years?

Arguably, because in pretty much every generation Nintendo's handheld hardware has sold better than its home console hardware, NX should be primarily tracked as a handheld device, with home console application. Thus its sales should be compared to past gen handheld devices rather than home console devices. And in terms of head to head 9th gen sales (assuming Xb one 2 and PS5 ever happen) it's the lone handheld on the market and it is not tracked as a home console along with whatever SOny and MS put out.

I am speaking as if NX were a home console only.  HOWEVER if it is a hybrid it would still be counted the same way as long as it plays the same games with cross functionality.  NX is NX and if it interests gamers in a way that will sell more than X1 and N64, then it is more successful, period.  I will not deduct points for innovation that pays off.

Well, if it's a home console only and hold no interests for the handheld gamer then I doubt it will sell better than N64 or Xb one (depending on how much longer Xb one stays on the market).

It's not a question of deducting points, it's a question of what is a logical comparison. If the NX primarily sells to handheld gamers then it is more logical to assess its success as a handheld device. 3DS is more successful than N64 and Xb one, but no one ever compares them becuase they do not sell in the same gamer market and thus such a comparison is meaningless. Similarly one needs to analyse where NX sales are coming from in order to make sensible comparisons to past generations and to contemporary competition (if there is any). If NX is 85% selling for its handheld functionality then it is not competing with Xb one for sales and it's not comparable to past gen home consoles. 

I have no idea what NX is likely to be, but if it's effectively a handheld with a TV docking station and a controller then I would call it an enhanced handheld rather than a home console and I would analyse its performance relative to the history of handheld devices.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

I predict that the NX will do better than Wii U, but worse than N64.

The next few generations of phones will be better than what Nintendo is willing to make for a handheld (mainly because not enough people will be willing to pay more than $200 for a handheld). Couple this with the huge number of hand-me down smart phones, I see the next generation being the last generation of handheld consoles.

On the home console front, I think the NX will be backwards compatible with the Wii U. I think that Nintendo has no choice but to do this, as releasing the NX mid-generation, with back catalog of games to support it, would cause it to fail instantly. Even with backwards compatibility, it will only do well for about 3 years, until the PS5 and XBox Two are released.



DM235 said:
I predict that the NX will do better than Wii U, but worse than N64.

The next few generations of phones will be better than what Nintendo is willing to make for a handheld (mainly because not enough people will be willing to pay more than $200 for a handheld). Couple this with the huge number of hand-me down smart phones, I see the next generation being the last generation of handheld consoles.

On the home console front, I think the NX will be backwards compatible with the Wii U. I think that Nintendo has no choice but to do this, as releasing the NX mid-generation, with back catalog of games to support it, would cause it to fail instantly. Even with backwards compatibility, it will only do well for about 3 years, until the PS5 and XBox Two are released.

Of Course Nintendo has chose not to include backwards compatibility to NX. Backward compatibility in hardware means higher price of that hardware or weaker hardware for same price without BC. Nintendo can easily port some of Wii U games, we already know Zelda is coming and Smash Bros is almost certainly, definitely there will be some more Wii U ports. Also Nintendo can have have strong launch and 1st year line up easily without BC, people forgetting that last big game for Wii U was announced at E3 2014, almost every Nintendo team is on track to release its new game in NX first year.

Wii U had BC but failed, PS4/XB1 didnt and they actually selling better than PS3/XB360. Backward Compatibility is not important at all like some people assuming, especially today when we have so much ports and remasters of almost evre bigger or better game.



35 million home console/55 millions handheld. Console refresh every 4 years.



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Hmm, no. I think it will end the trend of the home console decline for Nintendo though. I'm thinking around 40 million sold, compared to the 60ish million of the Xbox One. Then again, who knows.

I wish the NX and Nintendo success. Industry wouldn't be the same without them