Can the PS4 keep its 50% Market Share even if the NX is included?

Guitarguy

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Guitarguy on 07 May 2016

fatslob-:O said:

LipeJJ said:
Can it? Yes. Will it? Only if the NX is a truly massive failure.

Let's say the Xbox One ends up this generation somewhere around 40-50m. The Wii U will be around 14m. That's already 54-64m; making the PS4 need to reach 108-128m to keep its 50% marketshare.

Now, let's say the NX turns out to be a bigger flop than the GameCube and sells only 20m. That would represent a toal of 74-84m; making the PS4 need to reach 148-168m.

You see, even if the NX flops, it will be very hard... unless you think the PS4 will surely outsell the PS2.

Umm, your numbers don't make much sense ...

74-84m/148-168m =/= 50/50

The PS4 would only just have to sell the as much or more than the X1, WII U, and NX combined so why would it have to double them combined ?

Good call actually.

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Risthel on 07 May 2016

LipeJJ said:
Can it? Yes. Will it? Only if the NX is a truly massive failure.

Let's say the Xbox One ends up this generation somewhere around 40-50m. The Wii U will be around 14m. That's already 54-64m; making the PS4 need to reach 108-128m to keep its 50% marketshare.

Now, let's say the NX turns out to be a bigger flop than the GameCube and sells only 20m. That would represent a toal of 74-84m; making the PS4 need to reach 148-168m.

You see, even if the NX flops, it will be very hard... unless you think the PS4 will surely outsell the PS2.

Except percentages don't work like that at all. PS4 needs to sell as much as the other consoles combined to achieve 50%, so it would be easy enough. Besides, why are people including the Wii U? It's a different generation.

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fatslob-:O on 07 May 2016

LipeJJ said:

You're right, this doesn't make any sense. I don't know, my bad..... always sucked at math.

I'm off to bed after this one, bye.

Now if only this thread got renamed to "Can the PS4 get a 66% Market Share even if the NX is included?" XD

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Guitarguy on 07 May 2016

Risthel said:

LipeJJ said:
Can it? Yes. Will it? Only if the NX is a truly massive failure.

Let's say the Xbox One ends up this generation somewhere around 40-50m. The Wii U will be around 14m. That's already 54-64m; making the PS4 need to reach 108-128m to keep its 50% marketshare.

Now, let's say the NX turns out to be a bigger flop than the GameCube and sells only 20m. That would represent a toal of 74-84m; making the PS4 need to reach 148-168m.

You see, even if the NX flops, it will be very hard... unless you think the PS4 will surely outsell the PS2.

Except percentages don't work like that at all. PS4 needs to sell as much as the other consoles combined to achieve 50%, so it would be easy enough. Besides, why are people including the Wii U? It's a different generation.

Thank you!!! Once a console is succeeded, it is exempt. You don't see PS3/360 marketshare blended into PS4/Wii U/Xbox One marketshare.

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Aeolus451 on 07 May 2016

If you tally up the total for everything that's not discontinued (wii u, xbox one, PS4, 3DS, PS vita) at the moment, the PS4's market share isn't 50%. The reason why I included everything because market share is divided by everything in production or by gen or by home console/handheld. NX is a 9th gen home console. It wouldn't share a part of the market share with 8th gen home consoles.

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daredevil.shark on 07 May 2016

Lol. Weren't people saying NX as "next gen". So it's current gen? Even if NX released PS4 will wash it away. No chance.

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Guitarguy on 07 May 2016

Aeolus451 said:
If you tally up the total for everything that's not discontinued (wii u, xbox one, PS4, 3DS, PS vita) at the moment, the PS4's market share isn't 50%. The reason why I included everything because market share is divided by everything in production or by gen or by home console/handheld. NX is a 9th gen home console. It wouldn't share a part of the market share with 8th gen home consoles.

PS3 is not discontinued.

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Nate4Drake on 07 May 2016

Easy, 'cause once NX will be out, WiiU will go down and down in the weekly, and PS4 will have a user base of 58-59M by that time. This Gen is just PS4 domination; but who cares, we have to enjoy the game experience, and NX will be another option, so everybody is happy.

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