Hiku said:
Nintendo once had an install base of 60m for NES and 50m for SNES. And DS and 3DS sold 155m and 55m respectively. It's very hard for me to imagine that their fanbase has shrunk to 10-20m. Especially when you see a common trend among Wii U owners, where many of them have only ever owned a Nintendo system. And that is not the same as most fans of Nintendo purchasing their system only because they are big fans of their game, but it can also be a case of having a less diverse taste in games because you haven't properly experienced what else is out there. And this can change your perspective of whether or not a console is worth the asking price.
There was a topic once where people were asked to list their top 10 music from videogames. And I recall several people with Nintendo avatars having their top 10 lists comprised of nothing but songs from Nintendo games. This to me does not say "This is a true fan of Nintendo", but rather "This is a person who really hasn't played much outside of Nintendo, and has a less diverse taste in games because of it."
I would know, as I was in that situation at one point as well, and blissfully enjoyed my N64, with it's high quality, but very limited in amount, titles. Very limited. But knowing what I know today, and if PS2 wasn't backwards compatible with PS1 games, I would have chosen a PS1 instead.
You mention how there are many WiiU owners who feel like there are enough good games to justify the price of the console. And I can understand that, as everyone has different tastes, and there are good games like Splatoon, Mario Maker, and possibly Star Fox, that I'm not interested in. I loved Star Fox 64, but my interest in Star Fox is gone. That doesn't equate to me not being a Nintendo fan. You shouldn't be expected to love every franchise for decades on end. I used to love Devil May Cry. Really liked DMC 3, but got burned out on the franchise after playing it, and never played DMC 4, or the reboot. Loved Resident Evil, and played every game with high anticipation. But after games like RE6, I have no interest in Revalations 2, and I'm skeptical of any further releases from this point on. Do things like that not make me a fan of Playstation any more? No, these things happen. But it's more common to happen on a console with a much more diverse range of games. Because the truth is, if your console's library is limited, you are that much more inclined to buy and like games that you otherwise wouldn't buy.
The Nintendo fans out there who don't buy Nintendo consoles, possibly because their taste in games has become more diverse, they don't have to love or buy every Nintendo franchise if it became multiplat. It's a good thing having a lot to chose from, and many more people doing the chosing. While one person may just like Zelda, Mario and Smash, another may just like Metroid, and F-Zero. In the end it amounts to a lot. Rather than specific games like Mario Kart charting with massive sales like 10m+, all the games that don't chart on other consoles and sell significantly less, but still decent, amount to a lot more.
Am I not a Nintendo fan because I haven't bought a console since N64? (I have 3DS though.) Or am I not a Zelda fan because the last Zelda game I finished from beginning to end was Majora's Mask, even though I played through all the previous ones and still have the box of MM on display on my shelf and bought the remake for 3DS? If I would be labeled that way, I have no objections.
But the bottom line is, should Nintendo's games come out for Playstation, I would buy a lot of them. Zelda, Metroid, Mario, Xenoblade, etc.
Personally I was never a big fan of Donkey Kong, but I'm sure you wouldn't have a hard time finding someone who's more interested in Donkey Kongthan Xenoblade or Metroid on my list.
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Certainly somebody shouldn't like all of their franchises just because they are Nintendo, but they certainly should love a decent number in order to be called a Nintendo fan. Just liking one or two franchises doesn't make you a fan of a company, but rather a fan of those two franchises is my point. Sure that might translate into more sales for those two franchises, but if what you say is true - that most Nintendo fans who buy all these games only do so because they haven't tried other publishers - would that not be a bad thing for Nintendo if they were to go third party? Those people would then play other games rather than the proportion of Nintendo games that you've attributed to being only likable because of lesser competition. I do think there are a quite a few Nintendo fans who give games chances because there is less variety (just look at Devil's Third support), but these aren't necessarily bad games and they become fans of these games because they gave it a chance. If anything, that is more reason Nintendo should keep all of their titles contained on one platform that has a decent focus on first party. They gain from it.
As for the issue of install base, there was a decline in Nintendo appeal between the NES and SNES. Many people moved to Sega during that period. The DS and 3DS appeal to handheld gamers which are a greater audience than "Nintendo fans." There are fewer alternatives for handhelds. Furthermore, like the Wii, the DS appealed to a casual audience. When I say there are 20 million Nintendo fans, I am being a bit exclusive. I am talking about the people who absolutely love Nintendo. They play their games no matter what, but a sizable portion left Nintendo due to the issue of game diversity and a lack of third party support. I am including the current Wii U owners + those who absolutely love Nintendo but left because they also want other games. The NES, SNES, DS, and 3DS appeal to much more than this group. These extras are unreliable when we determine whether or not Nintendo games will sell much more than they have, because these people aren't necessarily buying the platforms for Nintendo games. The NES, SNES,DS, and 3DS all have had great third party support. The reason why I made that Gamecube comment is because there was a point when the Gamecube cost $100 brand new before the new consoles released. You could find used Gamecubes for $50. People still didn't buy them. Why? Because they weren't Nintendo fans. Any Nintendo fan would've spent $50-$100 for a Gamecube because there was Metroid, Zelda, Mario Kart, Super Smash, F-Zero, Star Fox, etc, etc on the platform.
When I see PS4/XBO gamers criticize Nintendo, they do so because they find Nintendo's titles to be less cinematic or targeting a child demographic. They criticize Nintendo because Nintendo mostly focuses on the same IP's (without considering the different gameplay implementations Nintendo makes with each title.) These are things that make Nintendo - fundamentally - Nintendo. They don't like what Nintendo is, and want Nintendo to be something else. If Nintendo wanted to expand their audience, then they would have to change for these audiences. I don't see them really gaining as much as people make it seem by having their games on other platforms unless Nintendo changes to target these platform's demographics. Sure, there will be gains, but I find them to be much more conservative than others. The PS4 and XBO audience just doesn't (as a generalization) find Nintendo games all that appealing. A minority of these userbases do, sure, but when we consider the demographic gains we need to consider who actually wants Nintendo games, and honestly if they aren't buying Wii U's or Wii's with all of the great Nintendo support, I can't see them getting really enthusiastic about games like Captain Toad, Donkey Kong, Pikmin, etc. If Nintendo wants to cut into this minority, all they have to do is make an appealing platform with strong titles from their franchises, and this minority will buy their next platform mostly as a secondary console, but also possibly as a primary one.
