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Forums - Sales Discussion - Prediction: Wii's Production will be upped to at least 2.3mil/month by Apr

Fastrabbit09 said:
leo-j said:
I think reggie is overestimating demand for the wii.

Thats just my opinion for the situation.

demand would have 10 million wiis sold in US in 1 month if they shipped that much

 

 


 What a silly statement. Such demand does not exist anywhere in the world, possibly for any product save for groceries. Demand for consoles typically plummets throughout the summer months, and the Wii is not a magic device that is exempt from such phenomenon. Outside of the holidays, looking at Eu/Others and Japan numbers, the demand is a lot smaller than you make it sound. North America is probably the only place where there are still issues with supply. 

Having opinions and favourites is just fine, but you're acting very naive in this situation and leo-j or other users are no more wrong than you are. In fact; with your statement in mind, I'd say its reversed, this time at least. I thought the biggest, blindest Nintendo fanboys had stopped posting here, but I was apparently wrong. You were a much more balanced poster before. 



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They'll have a mini-spurt in April to start off the financial year well and support Mario Kart. But they are going to send an absolute ton of Wii's to the US for Wii Fit. But Reggie might've been underestimating 360 sales in that time frame, especially with GTA4.



Million said:
I don't think nintendo should make 2.5 million Wii's themselves , if they're going to sub contract the production of Wii's to meet that quota then fine but I think the Wii will hit saturation quicker than the PS3 and 360 , so they'd effectivley be increasing production to meet relativley short term demand.

 They are already using subcontractors. That's how they reached the 1.8m/month mark in the first place.

Also, who's to say its a short term demand. Still a fad huh?

I think going on 1.5 years of complete sell out in NA proves that this is not a fad and plenty of casuals and non-gamers out there are still looking. Just watch Ebay. The price of a new Wii on there with no extras is still around $350. When that dies down to regular retail, or sub retail as the case with Ps360's, then and only then will the huge demand be leveling off.

Gamestop and others are all predicting the Wii to remain sold out for at least another 6 mos. By then the holiday season is ramping up and unless Nintendo is pushing out a ton, it won't be much different than last year, except much bigger numbers. 



i'm balancing off their statements...leo is saying there isn't even 3mil demand for wii over 3 months in US...it sold 4mil in 1 month over the holidays and it was still sold out everywhere and i got calls about listings i put up there then until february (when craigslist automatically pulls down ads)

i had to get there at 5am for a 10am opening and see people show up at 5:10 to be 40th in line and thus just missed getting a wii 5 hours later

the demand is huge and wii fit is gonna so much bigger than u think...it will easily double your 7mil 'ceiling'

also, when supply hasn't met demand, then nobody can tell u where that demand actually is...it's less logical to assume it is always 'just slightly over supply' than to assume it is double what december's supply was considering the prices of 2ndary market wiis during that time frame



Bets:Missed by 420k I bet leo-j vg$500 that wii will sell 31 million by 7/31/08.  Sorry, I don't think he has enough vg$ to make it with all of u that wish you could. Hit, with room to spare I bet kingofwale a 1-week ban that wii Americas ltd sales>360 Americas ltd sales as of the numbers for week ending 7/05/08 (using vgchartz homepage #s)

Predictions:

Wii will sell 18-20mil by 12/31/07  CHECKWii will sell 45mil+ WW by 12/31/08Wii will surpass PS2 sales WW by 11/17/11 (5yr anniversary)Wii Fit will hit 12mil sales in 2009MKWii+SSBB+Wii Fit+SMG > 50 mil sales by 2010 > gta4+mgs+gt5+ff13+haze+lbp

Comparing holiday sales to the rest of the year is highly faulty, and I never abide by such logic. Everything moves rapidly during the holidays, even expensive TV sets or stereo's.
To me, it is no more rational saying that demand is twice the supply than saying it is just above supply, especially when two of the maajor markets are well fed and seem to have ample supply.
There are very few places in Europe you won't find a Wii now, even the UK has gotten their supply lines relatively straight it seems.
Why would North Americans buy 3-4 or even 5 times as many as Europe (who house twice as many people) or Japan who seem to be absolutely crazy about the Wii?
It makes little sense to me, and as a product manager like it says in your job description, I expected more logical and realistic deduction than this.

WiiFit sales in NA will depend heavily on marketing, but I don't believe we'll see staggering sales in Europe/Others no matter how well marketed it is, Nintendo has only a loose hold on the market there right now, and things will turn against them when their competition get massive hits this summer. Hits from proven franchises and games that dev's know from before will sit well with European citizens, the Wii has Mario Kart to answer with, a solid hit itself for sure, but only one title against a horde. (I know there are plenty other Wii titles bound for release this year, but I can't imagine anything of MK's proportions).



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Why make 2.3 a month when you ain't selling all of your 1.8?!



THE NETHERLANDS

^what r u talking about???? The Wii is easily selling the units shipped - the rest not shipped are being saved



dsoverpsp said:
^what r u talking about???? The Wii is easily selling the units shipped - the rest not shipped are being saved

I'm really sorry dude... But these are the WW Wii-sales of the last 4 weeks.

 

14th of March:      264,526 (-) 22,669,739

7th of March          205,300 (-) 22,405,213

28th Februari        356,758 (-) 22,199,913

21st of Februari    248,306 (-) 21,843,155

 

That looks more like ~1.08 million to me (rough guess...) And don't tell me they are saving 800k units every month because that'd be bullshit! 

 



THE NETHERLANDS

StarcraftManiac said:
dsoverpsp said:
^what r u talking about???? The Wii is easily selling the units shipped - the rest not shipped are being saved

I'm really sorry dude... But these are the WW Wii-sales of the last 4 weeks.

 



Another reason for them not selling all they are producing is that their sales figures have met their projections this fiscal year. For some strange reason, Nintendo doesn't like to overshooot the mark when it comes to meeting sales forecasts.

Also, the impending launch in S. Korea and China may be another cause.



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