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Forums - Sales Discussion - Prediction: Wii's Production will be upped to at least 2.3mil/month by Apr

NJ5 on 22 March 2008

@StarcraftManiac: Where do you propose those units are going then? Are they being dumped in the Sahara desert?

 



My Mario Kart Wii friend code: 2707-1866-0957

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Loud_Hot_White_Box on 22 March 2008

So, question/speculation here: given this possible unit-per-month increase and the other thread about monthly production, is there any possibility that Nintendo will have a decent number of reserve units that they can send in a little flood just before GTAIV drops? 

Nintendo can't stop GTAIV (nor do they need to...largely different audiences I think) or the increased sales for PS3/360 consoles (nor do they need to), but it would be well for them to show a big sales jump at a time Wii might be considered left out in the cold.



StarcraftManiac on 22 March 2008
Loud_Hot_White_Box said:

So, question/speculation here: given this possible unit-per-month increase and the other thread about monthly production, is there any possibility that Nintendo will have a decent number of reserve units that they can send in a little flood just before GTAIV drops?

Nintendo can't stop GTAIV (nor do they need to...largely different audiences I think) or the increased sales for PS3/360 consoles (nor do they need to), but it would be well for them to show a big sales jump at a time Wii might be considered left out in the cold.


 That time won't come... Mario Kart releases within a timeframe of 24 hours next to GTA4. Then WiiFit. And Brawl for Europe. Then E3. Then Holiday comes closing in with new titles for all 3 consoles. Nintendo can counter Sony and Microsoft with their GTA, MGS, HAZE etc...



THE NETHERLANDS

DMeisterJ on 22 March 2008

2.3 is pretty reasonable

I was expecting 2.5



regin2005 on 22 March 2008

I'm hoping the 360 will still have more steam left in it once GTA4 comes out!! I really do.



Generation 8 Predictions so far.....(as of 9/2013)

Console that will sell most: Nintendo Wii U

Who will sell more consoles between Microsoft/SONY: SONY

 

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Paul on 22 March 2008
Mummelmann said:
Comparing holiday sales to the rest of the year is highly faulty, and I never abide by such logic. Everything moves rapidly during the holidays, even expensive TV sets or stereo's.
To me, it is no more rational saying that demand is twice the supply than saying it is just above supply, especially when two of the maajor markets are well fed and seem to have ample supply.
There are very few places in Europe you won't find a Wii now, even the UK has gotten their supply lines relatively straight it seems.
Why would North Americans buy 3-4 or even 5 times as many as Europe (who house twice as many people) or Japan who seem to be absolutely crazy about the Wii?
It makes little sense to me, and as a product manager like it says in your job description, I expected more logical and realistic deduction than this.

WiiFit sales in NA will depend heavily on marketing, but I don't believe we'll see staggering sales in Europe/Others no matter how well marketed it is, Nintendo has only a loose hold on the market there right now, and things will turn against them when their competition get massive hits this summer. Hits from proven franchises and games that dev's know from before will sit well with European citizens, the Wii has Mario Kart to answer with, a solid hit itself for sure, but only one title against a horde. (I know there are plenty other Wii titles bound for release this year, but I can't imagine anything of MK's proportions).

Wii fit has been the #1 best seller on amazon.co.uk since it became available for pre-order.

http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/bestsellers/videogames/ref=sv_vg_h__3/203-1497940-2317557

It's pretty high on the other European Amazon charts as well. 

 

 



johnlucas on 22 March 2008
Fastrabbit09 said:

I predict Nintendo will be producing at least 2.3mil Wiis a month by April...not announced in April but actually producing at the higher capacity in April.

Why?

Reggie stated a few weeks ago that Wii would overtake 360 in US by June.

So let's take a look at what that means:

Americas

wii: 9.8mil
360: 11.23mil

That is a 1.43 mil difference (more like 1.5mil when Reggie said it)

so almost 500k more Wiis than 360s sold each month for Wii to pass 360 by June

According to NPD, Wii only outsold 360 by 178k in February, so Nintendo has to ship some serious stock of Wiis to US in the next few months. Reggie wouldn't likely make that statement without being confident they could do it. Additionally, GTA comes out before then and likely a 360 price drop, so Reggie even has to account for 360 seeing a bump in sales before June for at least a few weeks.

It also makes sense as Wiis were selling out before the 3 big games came out, so why wouldn't they think they can up production and still sell out after the 3 big games are out? They also stated they will be doing their BIGGEST marketing campaign EVER for Wii fit...and we saw how they took away ads during holidays due to lack of supply...if they thought supply would be at only 450-500k/month, then they wouldn't be throwing their biggest ever campaign for wii fit as they would be driving up demand while consumers can't even get it...

So I think they will:

a) up production on the wii by April

b) ship a TON of wii fit copies in May...like 2+mil to the US alone in the first few weeks

 


Higher! Higher!

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=17683#end

John Lucas 



Words from the Official VGChartz Idiot

WE ARE THE NATION...OF DOMINATION!

 

Loud_Hot_White_Box on 23 March 2008
StarcraftManiac said:
Loud_Hot_White_Box said:

So, question/speculation here: given this possible unit-per-month increase and the other thread about monthly production, is there any possibility that Nintendo will have a decent number of reserve units that they can send in a little flood just before GTAIV drops?

Nintendo can't stop GTAIV (nor do they need to...largely different audiences I think) or the increased sales for PS3/360 consoles (nor do they need to), but it would be well for them to show a big sales jump at a time Wii might be considered left out in the cold.


That time won't come... Mario Kart releases within a timeframe of 24 hours next to GTA4. Then WiiFit. And Brawl for Europe. Then E3. Then Holiday comes closing in with new titles for all 3 consoles. Nintendo can counter Sony and Microsoft with their GTA, MGS, HAZE etc...


Much as I'd prefer to play Mario Kart (any version except 64) over any version of GTA including IV, in terms of system sales and buzz, Mario Kart Wii is no GTAIV.

I was just wondering whether Nintendo could generate buzz/steal thunder by moving say half a million Wiis in NA alone in the two weeks surrounding the release of GTA.  Then you'd have mainstream news reporting "ZOMG there are Wiis in stock and this soccer mom got 1 for teh kidz!", rather than just, "This just in........GTAIV is pwning everyone.  Available on PS3 and 360."

But the flood of Wiis strategy necessitates Nintendo actually having the units to ship to stores at that time, so I'm curious as to whether they could do it.  To me, it makes no sense to save the units all for Wii Fit.  They should be aggressive when GTAIV drops. 



ChichiriMuyo on 23 March 2008

I think this is all too possible, though my guess was actually 2.2 mil by April. Also, if Reggie said they are going to do it, I'm pretty sure they will. Nintendo pretty much never makes a claim it can't back up. GTA4 would have to be bigger than expected for him to be wrong.

But, hey, as far as I can tell they are saving units up for the same timeframe that GTA4 launches in anyway. Nintendo doesn't want to be beat that week, and I'd be willing to bet that they'd hold off on units now just so they can say that not even GTA4 is potent enough to stop them. I mean, they were all too happy to laugh off MS's use of their 'only bullet' last year, and if you wanted to tell the world that you were number one wouldn't you want to do it by having one of your second stringers (MK is second string for Ninty, at least) lead the way in a massive victory over competitors trying to hawk one of the few 1st string products you don't own?

EDIT:  I agree with you, white box.  It'd make more sense to fight GTA4, for one thing, but also there is the fact that if WiiFit follows the trend of many other casual games made by Nintendo (like Brain Age) then it's probably not going to be that big of a deal, actually.  I could be wrong, but to me it seems that exercise is just as hard to sell to my follow Americans as thinking is, so I really expect Europe and Japan sales of that game to look pretty good next to American sales.



You do not have the right to never be offended.

damkira on 23 March 2008
kingofwale said:
well, then Wii needs to outsell 360 by about 125k weekly

so 210K for Wii and 85k for xbox.. even through GTAIV and NG2. (i forgot the release date for NG2)

yeah, not going to happen

 That will easily happen. Wii sales are only going to go up throughout this year and 360 sales are pretty much flat everywhere. There may be a small bump for GTA4 but most people will probably end up getting it for the PS3.

 There are still hundreds of thousands, possibly millions of people who have been wanting a Wii for a long time now and who will buy one the first time they see it in a store. Some of us may camp out for one and make calls to see whose getting them in stock.. but the majority will buy one when its convenient.