Actually, 40M may be being too kind.  It's currently at 15.6M (we're guessing, cause MS doesn't want to give numbers.)  It'll probably be ~18M by the end of the year.  That's with it's biggest hitter already out.  It has nothing left to incredibly boost sales, except for another price cut.  However, since Sony has got the production costs for the PS4 down, I'm sure they will answer in kind next year when MS does cut.  Heck, Sony may do it first.  Point is, the price will no longer help MS as much. 

It also looks like the XBO will only sell ~7M this year, meaning it is down ~900K from 2014, even with its biggest hitter, Halo 5.  Next year will most likely be down, as well.  If it continues to be down by ~900K the following years, its total will be 24.1M for 2016.  29.3M in 2017.  33.6M in 2018.  2018 is when its successor will most likely be out, so sales may continue to slide further.  Even if sales decline only by the same amount that gives it a total of 37M for 2019, the year I think PS5 will launch.  At that point, sales will plummet.

The NX will be launching sometime in 2017.  I expect the XBT to be out the following year, since MS may want to get a jump on Sony.  That might actually bite them in the ass, though, cause Sony will most likely aim to have another console powerhouse, that can still launch at $399.  So them launching early will give Sony ~6 months to react to MS's console.  I expect Sony to launch in 2019, 6 years after the PS4, just in time for the 25th anniversary of the PS.  Considering it will be the PS5, they can play with the 25 in their advertising.  I think next gen will play out very much like this gen.  Sony is sticking with AMD, which means full B/C with the hugely successful PS4.  They are going to aim at having the most powerful machine they can get (I'm expecting ~8-10TFLOPS, with 2x the RAM and CPU power, plus a 4x-8x UHD Bluray drive) while still keeping costs at $399.

This. Technically iOS has lower market share than Android, yet everyone supports iOS still. If there is money to be made on xbox one, there will be third party support. Microsoft will keep growing YOY which is exactly what third party developers want.

Lol 

yeah its really confusing 

the bone 2 will beat the crap out of the ps4 and then the ps5 will beat it to hell ;)

Mistake, please delete

Where we differ is I don't think Xbox One will be replaced as early as 2018. (For that matter, I don't think NX release in 2017 either, it's 2016 I expect)

I expect this gen, like last, to long outstay its welcome and drag on forever.

While I agree with you that the X1 should easily still have perfectly healthy AAA 3rd party support, it is looking extremely unlikely that X1 will have YoY growth. See thismeintiel's post and my own in the past couple of pages for why.

The relatively poor numbers for 360 in 2005-2006 make the X1 look a lot more successful than it is (caused by a combination of manufacturing/supply issues, and the fact that the Xbox brand wasn't nearly as powerful during 360 launch timeframe as compared to X1's launch timeframe, which is a testament to how successful the 360 was over the middle to end of gen 7).

There is a certain similarity on the PS side with PS4 outpacing PS2 to this point in the console's lifespan. However, PS2 launched in a staggered fashion instead of global rollout, causing the comparison to be a bit unfair.

Anyway, X1 looks like an interesting case where it will decline in each full year of its sales (NPD). 2014 > 2015 > 2016 > 2017, etc. What you'd ideally like to see is growth for the first 3-4 years, then a gradual decline. But on the other hand, I don't think you could call 2014's US NPD sales totals bad by any stretch, so a slow decline from those numbers still presents a 'success' on it's own merits in terms of being highly relevant in the region, and with more than enough active install base to support the bigger 3rd party games being ported over. What the X1 will miss in the library will be the wider variety in 3rd party support of niche titles and things that are more popular globally. For many US gamers, this won't matter much, but it's not something that can be ignored either.

Technically, the games made for IOS and Android are atleast two or three gens behind. Easy port tbh. Technically and normally games made for PS4 and Xone takes atleast a year or two to be finished with budgets ranging from indie to AAA+. Add to that delays etc time and money ilarewasted. Especially from Japan. Third party developers want to save money and time on that. Completely different. If MS can justify all those cost all the time, then good for them. There's a reason most multiplatform games are a messy at launch. It's multiplatform. As they say exclusives usually are very polished. Devs most likely want to focus on one or two platforms to preserve quality of their games. With higher userbase, Sony couleld easily persuade devs and publishers those advantages. And the higher it gets, MS will be at that point where it becomes harder to compete especially in a platform where the audience are not easily swayed by some genres.

No. I really don't like MS as a company, for reasons that go beyond videogames. Also for some videogame related stuff. :) They have a good console in the XB1 though. It think the worst thing that will happen to it is that it will lose a certain, small-ish, mostly Japanese level of 3rd party support, and finish as the second best selling Xbox console behind the 360. It will continue to get roundly outsold by the PS4 regardless. +2/1 seems like a genuine possibility for PS4 vs theXB1. It will be fine. Better off than the Wii-U. Which despite it's many shortcomings, is still a viable, and worthy system in it's own right. No worries. Book it.

Can we get a wishful thinking sub forum against MS? We all know who the posters will be.

Some of these threads lately hsve just been bizarre.

Reminds me of when that Spiderman game was rumored to be canceled on Xbone and there was a flood of FUD. "It begins!!"