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curl-6 on 01 December 2015
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thismeintiel said:
curl-6 said:
thismeintiel said:

And people need to lay off the "best selling Xbox console.". MS has stopped talking about sales because they know the 360's aligned launch is right in the rearview mirror and coming fast. The XBO may end up at 35M-40M, nowhere near 360's 85M+.

While I agree Xbox One will not sell as much as the 360, I think 35-40 million is lowballing it a bit; this generation could drag on for as long as the last, giving it plenty of time to make steady progress.

Actually, 40M may be being too kind.  It's currently at 15.6M (we're guessing, cause MS doesn't want to give numbers.)  It'll probably be ~18M by the end of the year.  That's with it's biggest hitter already out.  It has nothing left to incredibly boost sales, except for another price cut.  However, since Sony has got the production costs for the PS4 down, I'm sure they will answer in kind next year when MS does cut.  Heck, Sony may do it first.  Point is, the price will no longer help MS as much. 

It also looks like the XBO will only sell ~7M this year, meaning it is down ~900K from 2014, even with its biggest hitter, Halo 5.  Next year will most likely be down, as well.  If it continues to be down by ~900K the following years, its total will be 24.1M for 2016.  29.3M in 2017.  33.6M in 2018.  2018 is when its successor will most likely be out, so sales may continue to slide further.  Even if sales decline only by the same amount that gives it a total of 37M for 2019, the year I think PS5 will launch.  At that point, sales will plummet.

The NX will be launching sometime in 2017.  I expect the XBT to be out the following year, since MS may want to get a jump on Sony.  That might actually bite them in the ass, though, cause Sony will most likely aim to have another console powerhouse, that can still launch at $399.  So them launching early will give Sony ~6 months to react to MS's console.  I expect Sony to launch in 2019, 6 years after the PS4, just in time for the 25th anniversary of the PS.  Considering it will be the PS5, they can play with the 25 in their advertising.  I think next gen will play out very much like this gen.  Sony is sticking with AMD, which means full B/C with the hugely successful PS4.  They are going to aim at having the most powerful machine they can get (I'm expecting ~8-10TFLOPS, with 2x the RAM and CPU power, plus a 4x-8x UHD Bluray drive) while still keeping costs at $399.

Where we differ is I don't think Xbox One will be replaced as early as 2018. (For that matter, I don't think NX release in 2017 either, it's 2016 I expect)

I expect this gen, like last, to long outstay its welcome and drag on forever.