| Snoopy said:
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While I agree with you that the X1 should easily still have perfectly healthy AAA 3rd party support, it is looking extremely unlikely that X1 will have YoY growth. See thismeintiel's post and my own in the past couple of pages for why.
The relatively poor numbers for 360 in 2005-2006 make the X1 look a lot more successful than it is (caused by a combination of manufacturing/supply issues, and the fact that the Xbox brand wasn't nearly as powerful during 360 launch timeframe as compared to X1's launch timeframe, which is a testament to how successful the 360 was over the middle to end of gen 7).
There is a certain similarity on the PS side with PS4 outpacing PS2 to this point in the console's lifespan. However, PS2 launched in a staggered fashion instead of global rollout, causing the comparison to be a bit unfair.
Anyway, X1 looks like an interesting case where it will decline in each full year of its sales (NPD). 2014 > 2015 > 2016 > 2017, etc. What you'd ideally like to see is growth for the first 3-4 years, then a gradual decline. But on the other hand, I don't think you could call 2014's US NPD sales totals bad by any stretch, so a slow decline from those numbers still presents a 'success' on it's own merits in terms of being highly relevant in the region, and with more than enough active install base to support the bigger 3rd party games being ported over. What the X1 will miss in the library will be the wider variety in 3rd party support of niche titles and things that are more popular globally. For many US gamers, this won't matter much, but it's not something that can be ignored either.
