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Forums - Microsoft Discussion - Halo 5 will sell 7.3 Million this year (Prediction)

 

Will it?

Yes 126 10.05%
 
No 438 34.93%
 
Maybe 93 7.42%
 
You're crazy 317 25.28%
 
I don't know 24 1.91%
 
Halo is dead 225 17.94%
 
team chief 24 1.91%
 
team locke 7 0.56%
 
Total:1,254
AsGryffynn on 29 December 2015
DonFerrari said:
AsGryffynn said:
DonFerrari said:
AsGryffynn said:

Of course, I never said otherwise. However, it was useful for representing the average picture in each console...

you are trying to connect to far points... the only thing I can conclude for certain is the obvious that sales improved digitally.

Have you forgotten what we saw the last page? The link I provided said digital attach rates are up, not that physical sales are down. When you use both links, it paints the console and average picture. Both can allow us to infer the estimated attach rates of both.

You are still confusing a bigger number of people buying digital at least once with how much they buy against retail versions. The study doesn't come close to solving it.

No. Reconcile both. It paints a rough picture of who's more likely to buy a digital version of a game. It is not a fact, but it's the closest we can obtain until we have hard numbers for at least one digital XONE game (we have for UK Ori, but that's the UK, where they were at around 100,000 a few weeks after release).

My digital H5 estimates are at around 33 to 38 percent...



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method114 on 29 December 2015
Swordmasterman said:
By the Goddess, all this thing of Retail VS Digital, is only because Halo did not break the first week predictions yet and the people are trying to make like it sold 50% via Digital Sources ?.

Calm down no one is saying 50% digital we're thinking more along the lines of 90%



DonFerrari on 29 December 2015
tabbi said:
DonFerrari said:

where did you get your numbers?

as i said i just used some easy to calculte number to show the pattern
but it does nott matter, if the dd attachrate for one region is some % higher or lower. it does not chance the math. just the numbers. same goes for the % installbase by each region.

you could use whatever numbers you want as your own reasonable estimates and the % overall digital attrachte will not change by more than 2 or 3%
but this is only good for digital attachrates. digital tie ratios or overall digital sales are a different story. we would need more data we don't have to make any educated guess.

p.s this has nothing to do with a possible halo 5 digital attachrate. i don't know that number. no1 knows that number excpet microsoft

So you are just throwing numbers on the wind that end up putting attach ratio bigger for X1? ok. So it's just useless.

AsGryffynn said:
DonFerrari said:
AsGryffynn said:

Have you forgotten what we saw the last page? The link I provided said digital attach rates are up, not that physical sales are down. When you use both links, it paints the console and average picture. Both can allow us to infer the estimated attach rates of both.

You are still confusing a bigger number of people buying digital at least once with how much they buy against retail versions. The study doesn't come close to solving it.

No. Reconcile both. It paints a rough picture of who's more likely to buy a digital version of a game. It is not a fact, but it's the closest we can obtain until we have hard numbers for at least one digital XONE game (we have for UK Ori, but that's the UK, where they were at around 100,000 a few weeks after release).

My digital H5 estimates are at around 33 to 38 percent...

Ok, I can live with it being just guesswork and you assuming it is. Just strange that it would jump from average 10 and highest being on 20% to 38%, but ok.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

SWORDF1SH on 29 December 2015
AsGryffynn said:

No. Reconcile both. It paints a rough picture of who's more likely to buy a digital version of a game. It is not a fact, but it's the closest we can obtain until we have hard numbers for at least one digital XONE game (we have for UK Ori, but that's the UK, where they were at around 100,000 a few weeks after release).

My digital H5 estimates are at around 33 to 38 percent...

This is the point though, it's improbable that 1 in 3 bought it digital. Where do these crazy percentages come from?

Destiny is probably the closest to Halo we are going to get, it's multiplayer heavy and that got a 20% digital attach rate. Now if Halo did do better than that then we could consider 25%. We just don't have any data to justify these high digital rates. I mean MS could tell us 35% tomorrow but the people spouting out these figures are pulling them from their arse. Even a broken clock is right twice a day.
http://venturebeat.com/2014/11/13/1-in-5-destiny-copies-are-digital-and-helps-lift-industry-according-to-analyst/





AsGryffynn on 29 December 2015
DonFerrari said:
tabbi said:
DonFerrari said:

where did you get your numbers?

as i said i just used some easy to calculte number to show the pattern
but it does nott matter, if the dd attachrate for one region is some % higher or lower. it does not chance the math. just the numbers. same goes for the % installbase by each region.

you could use whatever numbers you want as your own reasonable estimates and the % overall digital attrachte will not change by more than 2 or 3%
but this is only good for digital attachrates. digital tie ratios or overall digital sales are a different story. we would need more data we don't have to make any educated guess.

p.s this has nothing to do with a possible halo 5 digital attachrate. i don't know that number. no1 knows that number excpet microsoft

So you are just throwing numbers on the wind that end up putting attach ratio bigger for X1? ok. So it's just useless.

AsGryffynn said:
DonFerrari said:
AsGryffynn said:

Have you forgotten what we saw the last page? The link I provided said digital attach rates are up, not that physical sales are down. When you use both links, it paints the console and average picture. Both can allow us to infer the estimated attach rates of both.

You are still confusing a bigger number of people buying digital at least once with how much they buy against retail versions. The study doesn't come close to solving it.

No. Reconcile both. It paints a rough picture of who's more likely to buy a digital version of a game. It is not a fact, but it's the closest we can obtain until we have hard numbers for at least one digital XONE game (we have for UK Ori, but that's the UK, where they were at around 100,000 a few weeks after release).

My digital H5 estimates are at around 33 to 38 percent...

Ok, I can live with it being just guesswork and you assuming it is. Just strange that it would jump from average 10 and highest being on 20% to 38%, but ok.

Hence why I provided low to high end estimates. I am sure it wasn't the huge over the top numbers some of us seem to believe, but I am sure 20 percent was too low for a launch title everyone and their mother was trying to obtain before the release date. Not to mention it aligns rather well with my Ori estimates...

http://steamspy.com/app/261570

It is inconceivable it sold better on PC, since the game has more outputs on the XONE and all Xbox One and PC games sell better on the former. In other words, right now, it is over 450,000+ and odds are, past the million mark now. At 33 percent, digital sales hover around 600,000 downloads and if my Ori estimates were right back then (roughly the current PC estimates), then it fits with the MS claim that H5 was their best selling digital game...





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CosmicSex on 29 December 2015

Going into this I remember predicting 5 million and saying that I thought I was being optimistic. Halo 5 didn't sell well when you look at past titles. This kinda reminds me of how Forza just collapsed. I think its time for them to establish some new franchises. I fear that Gears 4 will be down too.



Chris Hu on 29 December 2015
CosmicSex said:
Going into this I remember predicting 5 million and saying that I thought I was being optimistic. Halo 5 didn't sell well when you look at past titles. This kinda reminds me of how Forza just collapsed. I think its time for them to establish some new franchises. I fear that Gears 4 will be down too.

 

Forza 6 didn't collapse with digital included it already sold over a million copies and it has better legs then Forza Horizon 2.  Also once the Porsche pack drops early next year its legs will get a boost.



DonFerrari on 29 December 2015
AsGryffynn said:
DonFerrari said:
tabbi said:

as i said i just used some easy to calculte number to show the pattern
but it does nott matter, if the dd attachrate for one region is some % higher or lower. it does not chance the math. just the numbers. same goes for the % installbase by each region.

you could use whatever numbers you want as your own reasonable estimates and the % overall digital attrachte will not change by more than 2 or 3%
but this is only good for digital attachrates. digital tie ratios or overall digital sales are a different story. we would need more data we don't have to make any educated guess.

p.s this has nothing to do with a possible halo 5 digital attachrate. i don't know that number. no1 knows that number excpet microsoft

So you are just throwing numbers on the wind that end up putting attach ratio bigger for X1? ok. So it's just useless.

AsGryffynn said:
DonFerrari said:
AsGryffynn said:

Have you forgotten what we saw the last page? The link I provided said digital attach rates are up, not that physical sales are down. When you use both links, it paints the console and average picture. Both can allow us to infer the estimated attach rates of both.

You are still confusing a bigger number of people buying digital at least once with how much they buy against retail versions. The study doesn't come close to solving it.

No. Reconcile both. It paints a rough picture of who's more likely to buy a digital version of a game. It is not a fact, but it's the closest we can obtain until we have hard numbers for at least one digital XONE game (we have for UK Ori, but that's the UK, where they were at around 100,000 a few weeks after release).

My digital H5 estimates are at around 33 to 38 percent...

Ok, I can live with it being just guesswork and you assuming it is. Just strange that it would jump from average 10 and highest being on 20% to 38%, but ok.

Hence why I provided low to high end estimates. I am sure it wasn't the huge over the top numbers some of us seem to believe, but I am sure 20 percent was too low for a launch title everyone and their mother was trying to obtain before the release date. Not to mention it aligns rather well with my Ori estimates...

http://steamspy.com/app/261570

It is inconceivable it sold better on PC, since the game has more outputs on the XONE and all Xbox One and PC games sell better on the former. In other words, right now, it is over 450,000+ and odds are, past the million mark now. At 33 percent, digital sales hover around 600,000 downloads and if my Ori estimates were right back then (roughly the current PC estimates), then it fits with the MS claim that H5 was their best selling digital game...

Your low end is bigger than everything else we have seem by 70% ... and how Ori that is a digital game basically have to do with this?

Anyway way the only reason I see people trying to put very high digital attach ratios to this title is to make it seem bigger sales numbers and look like the game didn't underperformed. But seeing how much it dropped in NPD, no matter how much we push exceptional digital sales the franchise have sold a lot less than what was predicted in OP.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

oniyide on 29 December 2015

so when its all said and done, this prediction was way off



Chris Hu on 29 December 2015
CosmicSex said:
Going into this I remember predicting 5 million and saying that I thought I was being optimistic. Halo 5 didn't sell well when you look at past titles. This kinda reminds me of how Forza just collapsed. I think its time for them to establish some new franchises. I fear that Gears 4 will be down too.

 

Also all Forza games on the X1 have way higher attachment rates then any of the Forza games on the 360 by that standard its actually a more popular fanchise then it ever was on the 360.  Plus it sold a whole lot more digitally since on the 360 only the two Horizon games and the F&F arcade game are available digitally.