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Forums - Microsoft Discussion - Halo 5 will sell 7.3 Million this year (Prediction)

 

Will it?

Yes 126 10.05%
 
No 438 34.93%
 
Maybe 93 7.42%
 
You're crazy 317 25.28%
 
I don't know 24 1.91%
 
Halo is dead 225 17.94%
 
team chief 24 1.91%
 
team locke 7 0.56%
 
Total:1,254
SWORDF1SH on 29 December 2015
AsGryffynn said:

Are Halo 5 and Gears Ultimate among those? I also better point out that Amazon is not where we purchase our digital games. We prefer our own digital service, especially with Games and Deals with Gold lowering prices...

Oh, found the link...

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2014-06-12-ps4-xbox-one-seeing-much-higher-digital-download-attach-rates

Sounded like you were saying that XB1 games had a better digital attach rate than the rest. So sorry if you didn't imply

BTW that link has nothing to do about digital/physical split per game, it just says that the digital attach rate has risen overal. This is probably due to the quality and quantity of digital only games being added weekly has improved over time on console.

I don't doubt that the digital/physical split per game improves in favor of digital over the years and I don't doubt that Halo could have up to 30% in digital sales. What I do hate that all of a sudden digital must be used to justify the Halo sales and it's never been so important. It's treated like it's the only game to have a digital version and the only game ever that could be pre-loaded before launch. All we've heard for months it "I have 10 friends that bought Halo and they all bought digital" and "You can preload it so many people bought it digital so they could play 12:01am". It's this kind of special treatment that Halo is getting that has made people fed up of hearing about digital Halo sales.



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Puppyroach on 29 December 2015

My guess is that Halo stands at about 4.5-5 million physical+ digital at the end of the year, not to shabby :).



DonFerrari on 29 December 2015
Rob5VGC said:
Maybe, but even if it did, MS would just say Halo 5 increased Xbox Live revenue instead of saying how much it sold.

Are you gypsi?

Justagamer said:

I think that halo 5 may surprise people with its sales. It looks amazing, and has guys like me, not usual halo fans, excited by it. I think it's going to be huge.

And, lol at the 9 people voting for the halo is dead option. I'd like to call a spade a spade here, but I'll bite my tongue on this one.

How does your tongue taste? Seems like your excitement wasn't felt by the X1 userbase.

hudsoniscool said:
Insidb said:
The last 2 Halos sold 9.75M and 9.5M copies LTD, down from a high of 12M (a 25% decrease) on systems with significantly larger install bases. I see H5 doing well, but selling 77% of the previous game's LTD sales, in 2 months, with a smaller install base...that just doesn't seem remotely reasonable. If the trend continues, we should expect it to sell ~6-7M lifetime, but I expect it to better that.

That doesn't make sense at all. Incuding digital there both over 10 million. And since 4 is newer it likely has a lot more digital sales, so it's almost certain that it outsold reach. If u don't want to count digital that's fine cause 4 is still outpacing reach. If the trend continues 5 should hit 10 million, I'd include digital tho cause it's so big now. 

As far as my guesses go, 3.1 million fw, 6 million by end of the year. Anything under 2.5 million fw and 5 million end of the year will be very disappointing. I attribute these lower numbers to the low install base, it will sell well over time more like 3 cause it's early in the gen and people will buy it as they purchase consoles. I highly doubt it will be front loaded like the later games in the series.

Seems like your guesses were totally wrong.

SWORDF1SH said:
Ali_16x said:

Lol? Where did you get that Xbox One has higher digital attach rates than the PS4? Are you just making this up to downplay PS4 sales? That's what it seems like.

I would like to know where this "fact" came from also.

A couple of crazy facts about digital spending;

  • Amazon top 3 selling gaming items for the year are PSN cards.
  • The top 20 for 2015 contains 6 PSN vouchers = $290
  • The XB1 has 3 vouchers in the top 20 for 2015 = $95
  • In the Gaming Digital hourly charts, 9 PS4 games show up before the first XB1 game at 42nd (Halo 5)

Make of it what you will!

You know what will be the attack for this point... lack of security on PSN.

tiffac said:

We have to wait for what and until when?



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

SWORDF1SH on 29 December 2015
DonFerrari said:
SWORDF1SH said:

I would like to know where this "fact" came from also.

A couple of crazy facts about digital spending;

  • Amazon top 3 selling gaming items for the year are PSN cards.
  • The top 20 for 2015 contains 6 PSN vouchers = $290
  • The XB1 has 3 vouchers in the top 20 for 2015 = $95
  • In the Gaming Digital hourly charts, 9 PS4 games show up before the first XB1 game at 42nd (Halo 5)

Make of it what you will!

You know what will be the attack for this point... lack of security on PSN.

lol yeah I've heard that one a few times. If people really think that something that happened almost 5 years ago will have a huge affect on the way general public spend then they just clinging to straws just like this high Halo digital attach rate. They will just simply have to show me proof instead of regurgitating somebody's bandwagon opinion.





GodOfPeace3 on 29 December 2015

That wasn't lifetime. I said 3.2 instead of his prediction of 7.3 by the end of the year. You know, 2015?



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AsGryffynn on 29 December 2015
Ali_16x said:
AsGryffynn said:
Ali_16x said:

 

I would like to know where this "fact" came from also.

A couple of crazy facts about digital spending;

  • Amazon top 3 selling gaming items for the year are PSN cards.
  • The top 20 for 2015 contains 6 PSN vouchers = $290
  • The XB1 has 3 vouchers in the top 20 for 2015 = $95
  • In the Gaming Digital hourly charts, 9 PS4 games show up before the first XB1 game at 42nd (Halo 5)

Make of it what you will!

Are Halo 5 and Gears Ultimate among those? I also better point out that Amazon is not where we purchase our digital games. We prefer our own digital service, especially with Games and Deals with Gold lowering prices...

Oh, found the link...

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2014-06-12-ps4-xbox-one-seeing-much-higher-digital-download-attach-rates

You were basically saying that PS4 has a lower attach rate than 20% and so the game sales the other guy calculated are lower and thus not as close to Halo 5, ie downplaying the sales.

And If I'm not mistaken CEA only covers America, not the whole world. And CEA is just market research, not a fact.

EDIT: Wait, that article doesn't even align with what other companies have been saying. Most say 20%, but CEA is saying 50-60%. That's a huge difference.

Where the hell did I even said that? No, I implied that the XONE has an attach rate ABOVE 20 percent, not that the PS4 is under that...

As you said, CEA aligns marketshare for the US. Since it's the only territory where the XONE is performing well, it's alright by me. Digital attach rates for the PS4 might surpass those of the XONE there, but all things considered, where the amount of owners is close, the XONE sells more digital numbers, whereas the PS4 owners prefer physical...

As for the industry, you're referring to this?

http://www.mcast.com/marketcast-study-reveals-console-gamers-resisting-shift-to-digital-downloads/

And this is the average for the INDUSTRY. Not specific consoles. The Wii U and last gen consoles are included there as well... 

As for market research vs fact. I hate to point out the obvious, but no one has facts. At best, you have the numbers of a handful of companies. They are big on sales, but there are lots of other publishers that have not spoken out, or I can highlight the fact that Halo 5 is the best selling digital game of XBL... even the fully digital Ori and the Blind Forest fell behind... and that's not a small number...





AsGryffynn on 29 December 2015
Farsala said:
AsGryffynn said:

Are Halo 5 and Gears Ultimate among those? I also better point out that Amazon is not where we purchase our digital games. We prefer our own digital service, especially with Games and Deals with Gold lowering prices...

Oh, found the link...

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2014-06-12-ps4-xbox-one-seeing-much-higher-digital-download-attach-rates

PS has higher Digital rates then XB. So the higher digital ratio should go to Sony's franchises.

PS4 alone 43%> 37% Xbox 360+ Xbox One

 

https://www.superdataresearch.com/blog/top-10-digital-console-games/

Date: January 2014

SWORDF1SH said:
AsGryffynn said:

Are Halo 5 and Gea

Sounded like you were saying that XB1 games had a better digital attach rate than the rest. So sorry if you didn't imply

BTW that link has nothing to do about digital/physical split per game, it just says that the digital attach rate has risen overal. This is probably due to the quality and quantity of digital only games being added weekly has improved over time on console.

I don't doubt that the digital/physical split per game improves in favor of digital over the years and I don't doubt that Halo could have up to 30% in digital sales. What I do hate that all of a sudden digital must be used to justify the Halo sales and it's never been so important. It's treated like it's the only game to have a digital version and the only game ever that could be pre-loaded before launch. All we've heard for months it "I have 10 friends that bought Halo and they all bought digital" and "You can preload it so many people bought it digital so they could play 12:01am". It's this kind of special treatment that Halo is getting that has made people fed up of hearing about digital Halo sales.

Trying to track per game sales is even more of a hassle. That said, Halo 5 was a huge title, so preloading the game was something a lot of people tried to do, as they wanted to play it before launch for story reasons and to have an edge in multiplayer (guilty here). I know it starts to annoy others, but when the bundle they sold relied on a digital download code, it sort of sent the message home (screw the disc, buy digital). The problem is that we don't have digital numbers. All we know is that it outsold the best selling digital game that preceded it.

 



DonFerrari on 29 December 2015
SWORDF1SH said:
DonFerrari said:
SWORDF1SH said:

I would like to know where this "fact" came from also.

A couple of crazy facts about digital spending;

  • Amazon top 3 selling gaming items for the year are PSN cards.
  • The top 20 for 2015 contains 6 PSN vouchers = $290
  • The XB1 has 3 vouchers in the top 20 for 2015 = $95
  • In the Gaming Digital hourly charts, 9 PS4 games show up before the first XB1 game at 42nd (Halo 5)

Make of it what you will!

You know what will be the attack for this point... lack of security on PSN.

lol yeah I've heard that one a few times. If people really think that something that happened almost 5 years ago will have a huge affect on the way general public spend then they just clinging to straws just like this high Halo digital attach rate. They will just simply have to show me proof instead of regurgitating somebody's bandwagon opinion.

One fact I remember is that even when X360 was outselling PS3 in USA the PSN cards outsold X360 cards on Amazon constantly, or so I was told. So maybe there is a little store bias, but yes the discrepancie this time is too big to say it's just because of lack of security and difficult to set credit card on PSN (a lot of people that try to use USA psn without being american, needs the psn card because their CC can be disallowed)



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

DonFerrari on 29 December 2015
AsGryffynn said:
Ali_16x said:
AsGryffynn said:

Are Halo 5 and Gears Ultimate among those? I also better point out that Amazon is not where we purchase our digital games. We prefer our own digital service, especially with Games and Deals with Gold lowering prices...

Oh, found the link...

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2014-06-12-ps4-xbox-one-seeing-much-higher-digital-download-attach-rates

You were basically saying that PS4 has a lower attach rate than 20% and so the game sales the other guy calculated are lower and thus not as close to Halo 5, ie downplaying the sales.

And If I'm not mistaken CEA only covers America, not the whole world. And CEA is just market research, not a fact.

EDIT: Wait, that article doesn't even align with what other companies have been saying. Most say 20%, but CEA is saying 50-60%. That's a huge difference.

Where the hell did I even said that? No, I implied that the XONE has an attach rate ABOVE 20 percent, not that the PS4 is under that...

As you said, CEA aligns marketshare for the US. Since it's the only territory where the XONE is performing well, it's alright by me. Digital attach rates for the PS4 might surpass those of the XONE there, but all things considered, where the amount of owners is close, the XONE sells more digital numbers, whereas the PS4 owners prefer physical...

As for the industry, you're referring to this?

http://www.mcast.com/marketcast-study-reveals-console-gamers-resisting-shift-to-digital-downloads/

And this is the average for the INDUSTRY. Not specific consoles. The Wii U and last gen consoles are included there as well... 

As for market research vs fact. I hate to point out the obvious, but no one has facts. At best, you have the numbers of a handful of companies. They are big on sales, but there are lots of other publishers that have not spoken out, or I can highlight the fact that Halo 5 is the best selling digital game of XBL... even the fully digital Ori and the Blind Forest fell behind... and that's not a small number...

You were answered on that... the survey showed that more people have at least bought digital once (I have several time) not that digital versus retail have improved as much as you infer (The only digital games I bought instead of retail were dirty cheap, wouldn't ever pay more to be medialess).



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

AsGryffynn on 29 December 2015
DonFerrari said:
AsGryffynn said:
Ali_16x said:
AsGryffynn said:

Are Halo 5 and Gears Ultimate among those? I also better point out that Amazon is not where we purchase our digital games. We prefer our own digital service, especially with Games and Deals with Gold lowering prices...

Oh, found the link...

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2014-06-12-ps4-xbox-one-seeing-much-higher-digital-download-attach-rates

You were basically saying that PS4 has a lower attach rate than 20% and so the game sales the other guy calculated are lower and thus not as close to Halo 5, ie downplaying the sales.

And If I'm not mistaken CEA only covers America, not the whole world. And CEA is just market research, not a fact.

EDIT: Wait, that article doesn't even align with what other companies have been saying. Most say 20%, but CEA is saying 50-60%. That's a huge difference.

Where the hell did I even said that? No, I implied that the XONE has an attach rate ABOVE 20 percent, not that the PS4 is under that...

As you said, CEA aligns marketshare for the US. Since it's the only territory where the XONE is performing well, it's alright by me. Digital attach rates for the PS4 might surpass those of the XONE there, but all things considered, where the amount of owners is close, the XONE sells more digital numbers, whereas the PS4 owners prefer physical...

As for the industry, you're referring to this?

http://www.mcast.com/marketcast-study-reveals-console-gamers-resisting-shift-to-digital-downloads/

And this is the average for the INDUSTRY. Not specific consoles. The Wii U and last gen consoles are included there as well... 

As for market research vs fact. I hate to point out the obvious, but no one has facts. At best, you have the numbers of a handful of companies. They are big on sales, but there are lots of other publishers that have not spoken out, or I can highlight the fact that Halo 5 is the best selling digital game of XBL... even the fully digital Ori and the Blind Forest fell behind... and that's not a small number...

You were answered on that... the survey showed that more people have at least bought digital once (I have several time) not that digital versus retail have improved as much as you infer (The only digital games I bought instead of retail were dirty cheap, wouldn't ever pay more to be medialess).

Of course, I never said otherwise. However, it was useful for representing the average picture in each console...