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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - If the NX doesn't come out in 2016, where will the "Nintendo-like" profits come from?

traveler72 said:
zorg1000 said:

Um......yes they are

3DS+Wii U shipments FY March 2013-17.40 million

3DS+Wii U shipments FY March 2014-14.96 million

3DS+Wii U shipments FY March 2015-12.11 million

3DS+Wii U shipments FY March 2016-11.00 million (Nintendo projections but they have been wrong in the previous 3+ years so likely between 10-11 million)

3DS+Wii U shipments FY March 2017-8.00 million (my prediction based on previous years)

Nintendo is certainly in no position to wait until Holiday 2017 or later to release new hardware.

So far in 2015, it's flat YOY. And the numbers you show (even the "future" ones) show a slow decline, not a fast one like it was mentioned on the post I quoted.

Nintendo can wait for up to early 2017 to release a new handheld, but 2016 is indeed ideal. Next home console should come in 2017.


They need to move quickly in handheld, they longer they wait the more irrelevant their portable brand becomes to the new generation of kids who simply are not growing up with a DS/Game Boy any longer. Too many parents are saying "just take my iPad and play with games on this" ... the longer they wait, the worse this phenmenon gets. 

Also 8 million hardware shipments is a year is *disastrous* for Nintendo. They haven't had hardware shipments that low since like 1988 or something (as in you have to go back before the Game Boy was invented). If that's not setting off some alarm bells then this photo is probably apt:

Console ... to be honest ... they need a miracle to be relevant again, like the Wiimote was, so that doesn't matter as much. 2016/2017 who knows. They must fight for their handheld marketspace though, if they lose that, then odds are you'll be playing Zelda on XBox and iPad a few years down the line. 



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zorg1000 said:
traveler72 said:

Hardware sales aren't dropping.

Um......yes they are

3DS+Wii U shipments FY March 2013-17.40 million

3DS+Wii U shipments FY March 2014-14.96 million

3DS+Wii U shipments FY March 2015-12.11 million

3DS+Wii U shipments FY March 2016-11.00 million (Nintendo projections but they have been wrong in the previous 3+ years so likely between 10-11 million)

3DS+Wii U shipments FY March 2017-8.00 million (my prediction based on previous years)

Nintendo is certainly in no position to wait until Holiday 2017 or later to release new hardware.

Yup, even Nintendo expecting sales drop.



Soundwave said:
traveler72 said:

So far in 2015, it's flat YOY. And the numbers you show (even the "future" ones) show a slow decline, not a fast one like it was mentioned on the post I quoted.

Nintendo can wait for up to early 2017 to release a new handheld, but 2016 is indeed ideal. Next home console should come in 2017.


They need to move quickly in handheld, they longer they wait the more irrelevant their portable brand becomes to the new generation of kids who simply are not growing up with a DS/Game Boy any longer. Too many parents are saying "just take my iPad and play with games on this" ... the longer they wait, the worse this phenmenon gets. 

Also 8 million hardware shipments is a year is *disastrous* for Nintendo. They haven't had hardware shipments that low since like 1988 or something (as in you have to go back before the Game Boy was invented). If that's not setting off some alarm bells then this photo is probably apt:

Console ... to be honest ... they need a miracle to be relevant again, like the Wiimote was, so that doesn't matter as much. 2016/2017 who knows. They must fight for their handheld marketspace though, if they lose that, then odds are you'll be playing Zelda on XBox and iPad a few years down the line. 


This is why they are developing for Mobile. They are doing all sorts of things that will keep them in the public conscience. "Take my ipad and play games on this" Nintendo will be there. They also will be in theme parks, on the big screen, and available on every smartphone. If Iwata's strategy pays off then irrelevant will not be a factor.



NX will not be released till late 2017 or even early 2018 imo.
And I think that even the 3DS will have its successor in 2018. If they start to give big exclusives to the N3DS like they did with the GBC, the DS family can still live a couple of years with great sales :)



boypita said:

NX will not be released till late 2017 or even early 2018 imo.
And I think that even the 3DS will have its successor in 2018. If they start to give big exclusives to the N3DS like they did with the GBC, the DS family can still live a couple of years with great sales :)


Did you even look at the sales numbers from above? Those aren't "great sales", those are Nintendo's worst sales since 1987 back when the NES was just starting to get full distribution in the US and the GameBoy/dedicated portable line didn't even exist back then. 

That's where their sales are headed. No chance in hell Nintendo waits until 2018. Their shareholders will revolt against them.



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Soundwave said:
boypita said:

NX will not be released till late 2017 or even early 2018 imo.
And I think that even the 3DS will have its successor in 2018. If they start to give big exclusives to the N3DS like they did with the GBC, the DS family can still live a couple of years with great sales :)


Did you even look at the sales numbers from above? Those aren't "great sales", those are Nintendo's worst sales since 1987 back when the NES was just starting to get full distribution in the US and the GameBoy/dedicated portable line didn't even exist back then. 

That's where their sales are headed. No chance in hell Nintendo waits until 2018. Their shareholders will revolt against them.


But sales of both Wii U and 3DS can turn around and start to go up, we still don´t know that. For example, if they release a pokemon exclusive to the N3DS (which I think it could be posible) like pokemon z/X2Y2 or even a new gen. 

Or maybe I´m just a dreamer :P But I still have faith in both systems :)



boypita said:
Soundwave said:


Did you even look at the sales numbers from above? Those aren't "great sales", those are Nintendo's worst sales since 1987 back when the NES was just starting to get full distribution in the US and the GameBoy/dedicated portable line didn't even exist back then. 

That's where their sales are headed. No chance in hell Nintendo waits until 2018. Their shareholders will revolt against them.


But sales of both Wii U and 3DS can turn around and start to go up, we still don´t know that. For example, if they release a pokemon exclusive to the N3DS (which I think it could be posible) like pokemon z/X2Y2 or even a new gen. 

Or maybe I´m just a dreamer :P But I still have faith in both systems :)

Even Nintendo in their projections expecting less sales, and every next year will be less than previous.



maybe Quality of life?



Soundwave said:
traveler72 said:

So far in 2015, it's flat YOY. And the numbers you show (even the "future" ones) show a slow decline, not a fast one like it was mentioned on the post I quoted.

Nintendo can wait for up to early 2017 to release a new handheld, but 2016 is indeed ideal. Next home console should come in 2017.


They need to move quickly in handheld, they longer they wait the more irrelevant their portable brand becomes to the new generation of kids who simply are not growing up with a DS/Game Boy any longer. Too many parents are saying "just take my iPad and play with games on this" ... the longer they wait, the worse this phenmenon gets. 

Also 8 million hardware shipments is a year is *disastrous* for Nintendo. They haven't had hardware shipments that low since like 1988 or something (as in you have to go back before the Game Boy was invented). If that's not setting off some alarm bells then this photo is probably apt:

Console ... to be honest ... they need a miracle to be relevant again, like the Wiimote was, so that doesn't matter as much. 2016/2017 who knows. They must fight for their handheld marketspace though, if they lose that, then odds are you'll be playing Zelda on XBox and iPad a few years down the line. 

8 million hardware shipments is also imaginary, in case you didn't notice up there. I can't take a post seriously when it says nintendo needs a miracle to be something they already are and that there's an actual risk of nintendo becoming third party.



boypita said:

NX will not be released till late 2017 or even early 2018 imo.
And I think that even the 3DS will have its successor in 2018. If they start to give big exclusives to the N3DS like they did with the GBC, the DS family can still live a couple of years with great sales :)

If Nx is a home console, it can be released late 2017 but 2018 seems too much like a stretch.