I think you can take out the rare game and the xbox pro controller thing, they will not give the XBO a spike. What will would be another firesale bundled with lots of games or the trade in discounts MS have been doing a few times this year. That would likely give the XBO massive sales, though at a cost to the bottom line and probably only done in the USA... so pretty pointless.

Only the fourth point is a good one, as it mentions Halo 5.

XB1's line up is nice, but we all know 3rd party games sell consoles and Sony has partnerships with almost all of them. Combine that with the expected $299 price drop and i don't think XB1 will outsell PS4 like you're expecting. TR shouldn't even have an affect on anything seeing how it's releasing the same day as Fallout 4 and days after BO3. What was MS and CD thinking?

 It definitely plays as an advantage for sales in the US and UK over the holidays. People are going to start seeing ads that say "Play all the new DLC first on PSN", and a lot of these CoD fans who still haven't switched gens will be like "cool, I'm gonna get a PS4". You can't deny it has helped MS heavily over the last 6 years during the holidays. 

Obviously lineups are subjective, but if you weigh all things up... only Halo is going to push consoles in any serious amount, and I'm not sure how much excitement there is for this game. I still think it will sell very well, but it's all a question of how many Halo users havent moved across yet and how many will when Halo comes out.

TR seems like a total waste of money now, and I suspect SE will be regretting it. They are going to see sales do very poorly on the XBO... why because of FO4 and the other big games around it. They were not to know it was coming out the same day, but I suspect that TR will get a delay or release date move now.

Third party games usually do well over Xmas, they always do, and even though there is a bit of apathy on COD and AC, they will still take a lot of sales. The two biggest games of this year/xmas are definately SW Battlefront and Fallout 4. Fallout 4 is going to be right up there for GOTY and sales wise will definately prevent TR from selling any reasonable amount (because some of those XBO users will buy FO over TR).

I've said this before but when people state that game ownership per console is in the low 2/3 games per console, having 4-6 big games coming out basically mitigates console exlusives. Just look at the next few months, these are the games that I would want to buy or big games that are coming out (not console exclusives):

September:

• Mad Max
• Metal Gear Solid
• FIFA 16
• PES

October:

• Rock Band
• Rainbow 6
• AC syndicate

November:

• FO4
• Star Wars Battlefront
• COD Black Ops

Theres more than that... but I think that shows the big problem for exclusives. I will probably buy about 8 of those, that's about 2 a month, and there are other smaller games I am interested in, this is why Exclusives at Xmas are not so important. I'm spending £100 on the collectors edition of FO... it all adds up.

Even Ms is starting to realise to move things to Jan-March after Sony has been doing this for years, the only problem is so many AAA games have also been delayed now to next year that again, exclusives are going to look even less appealing (unless they are big games) because so many other games will be competing.

Wow i totally forgot about FIfa, PES and Mad Max, all associated to PS4, yeah it will be really difficult for X1 to win this time, i dont think Halo will be enough

In the US I think X1 will win, but WW, PS4 will obviously win.
The main selling point from your list is only the holiday line up.

Wait, $299 for the PS4? Sony isn't going to give it a $100 price cut so soon. 

I definitly agree and don't expect a price cut at all really.  What people fail to notice is that Sony really doesn't need it.  Also, Xbox One can be more competitive this way and that keeps the industry healthy.  One quote that Sony's UK boss said "No one wins a race to $0".  Sony doesn't want to wipe out the Xbox One with overly aggressive pricing either because that will only contract the industry.    Even Yoshida said that the industry is at its best when there is "healthy" competition.   There is no way Microsoft wins this holiday, but at the same time, there is no reason for Sony to be that aggressive either. 

Exactly. And unlike MS, Sony actually needs PS to make money not just breakeven.