No.

You know MS only cares about US. And COD is most popular in the US. So yes, install bases mattered last gen.

4 Things MS could do to really sell great this holiday, and take the wind out of Sony's sales. 

1. Advertise Backwards Compatibilty. I think this one is a given for MS. Anyone who is in retail will tell you how big of a feature this actually is. It won't just boost software sales, but anyone on the fence about buying a console this holiday might make their final decision based on this alone. This is the type of feature will gain traction by word of mouth. Please don't tell me, "But it's only 100 games!" Do you really think casuals will care? In the end more games will be added so that argument doesn't hold much weight. They won't care about b/c at all, only the hard core care about b/c. Casuals don't like revisiting old games they played and finished a few years ago. There is no doubt this is a good feature, but the past doesn't sell consoles, future great games (including remakes - not remasters) sell consoles. If the lead strategy is "Play all these old previous gen games" then that is not a very compelling strategy. Will help a little bit, but it won't take chunnks out of PS4 sales, IMO.

2. Bundle Rare Replay with all holiday consoles. This will give MS the advantage of saying, "Buy our console which already comes with 30 games in the box!" Let alone, 30 awesome classic games. Any parent who walks into the store looking for a new console for Timmy, would be hard to pass up 30 games already ready to go compared to maybe 1 or 2 by the competitor. Timmy don't want classic Rare games, only the people with Rare nostalgia care about old Rare titles. And the kids who don't want CoD and/or Star Wars, which are both advantage PS4, will probably want Splatoon. I doubt a Rare bundle would help much at all.

3. The Xbox elite controller. Don't tell me those 13 year olds crazy over Cod don't want a controller like this. All of them want any type of advantage they can possibly have, even if that means just 3 extra kills.  They will beg their poor parents to buy them the Elite controller. Some might say, "But it's $150 why would you buy that?" Most controllers with similar features run for $200+, and you're getting an official controller by MS, not some 3rd party company. Controllers don't sell consoles, especially ones you have to buy separately. Will be virtually no benefit at all.

4. Holiday lineup. MS has the upperhand in their offering this holiday. There is nothing Sony is offering that can go toe-to-toe with Tomb Raider Hmmm PS4+UC trilogy then UC4 early next year and wait for Tomb Raider to come to PS4 seems like a pretty compelling package, not as good as UC4 releasing this holidays would have been, but still pretty good, Forza 6 USA doesn't care about this franchise, UK does care, rest of Europe/world doesn't give it much time, and Halo 5 Yes, this will definitely help current 360 owners decide to go with Xb one, but main benefit is USA and UK, and to a certain extent Aus and NZ, but collectively those won't cause a massive global swing towards Xb one outside of launch week and maybe the following 2 weeks. All MS needs to do is push those three games heavily, along with of the things I've already mentioned and they're good to go. MS will already have the retailer support like Gamestop, Best buy, etc. simply because of backwards compatibility. 

I'm not saying MS will win the holiday, but it will make it a hell of a lot more interesting if they do the following. "...if they do the above" and it will only make it interesting, maybe, in the USA and UK.

COD on PS4 has been outrunning COD on X1 ever since Ghost.