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Forums - Nintendo - NX will be a flop if release in 2016

 

Do you agree?

Yes 170 66.93%
 
No 84 33.07%
 
Total:254
fleischr said:
Ruler said:

I think it will do okay if they make it x86 architecture, make it powered like the x1 to sell it cheaper. Because that fits more with their bussines model.

How many mac user are out there 10 million? yet on steam every day games getting ported to OSX and linux as well.


Mac / Linux get ports for this reason: the royalties are fantastic since the Apple and the open source community behind Linux don't ask for royalties for software on the platform.

Considering how very little Nintendo makes on royalties of 3rd party games, they should cut their royalties 50 - 90 %. That should make some 3rd parties perk up at the chance to port games to the NX. Hell, even the WiiU.

But what would be the point for them to make consoles? then



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BMaker11 said:

Nintendo has been on the decline since it entered the home console market. SNES sold less then NES. N64 sold less than SNES. GCN sold less than N64. Wii was a fluke/outlier, whether you choose to accept it or not, due to the "fad" of motion controls (I've said this time and time again: do you think the Wii, with its library looking awful similar to prior gens, would have sold so much without waggle? They still had your Mario, Zelda, MK, Metroid, etc. The only variable was waggle). Now that the fad of motion controls are over, Nintendo has to once again rely solely on its library, and as you can see, the trend they were following before began to resume with the WiiU. 

NX will sell even less than WiiU. 

People always try to come up with ridiculous justifications as to why Wii magically doesn't count.

Wii sold on its software. Wii Sports was software, so was Wii Fit. Motion controls are nothing by themselves, it was their application in compelling software that won over the masses.

So no, Nintendo has not been in decline since it entered the home console market, that is incorrect. 



potato_hamster said:
gabzjmm23 said:
potato_hamster said:


Do you guys know anything about console video game development? Do you guys know anything about the costs associated with developing for more than one platform or spec? Do you guys have any idea have such a move would lead to the complete and utter abandonment of third parties? Anyone?

You guys need to let this idea go, and let it go quickly. Before you go saying something along the lines of games "scaling up and down". It simply does not work that way, and even if it did, it would require tremendously good developer tools, and Nintendo's developer tools are the absolute worst, and I really do mean the worst by a country mile. It's almost twice as hard to make a game run well on the Wii U than it is to make it run well on the PS4.  Now you need to make a game run well on three or four specs? Forget it. Absolutely forget it. Third parties wouldn't touch it with a 10 foot pole.


because you are talking about Wii U developer kit which is under IBM PowerPC against X1 and PS4 x86 architecture which is really different.  The topic is NX, if NX adopts the x86 archictecture, scaling down and up the graphics for power consumption and other things, it is possible. hence 3rd party would really come to NX.  If Nintendo decides to go to the x86 route.

Yes, I know the Wii U is Power PC based. I've made games for it. Guess what other two consoles are Power PC based? The PS3 and Xbox 360. The Wii was also PowerPC based for that matter. How did porting go from the Xbox 360 to Wii? Ohh I know, because I did it. Many times. It's absolutely terrible.  As it turns out, you couldn't just "scale the game down". You're acting as if the CPU's architecture is the primary problem. I can promise you it isn't. You don't simply make a PS4 game and "scale it down" slightly to for the Xbox one, even though the X1 is slightly underpowered compared to the PS4. In fact, each console's architecture is different by just enough that it's actually a bigger pain in the ass to get games running well on both consoles than one might think. Go ahead and read up on any of the big multi-platform third parties talk about developing for both the X1 and PS4. Let me know when you find one that describes it as developing for one and just "scaling it up or down" depending on the console. I won't hold my breath.

Even if Nintendo were to adopt an x86 architecture going forward for their Nintendo NX 3+ consoles, it would still be a royal pain to port to the NX. Would it be a bigger pain in the ass if they kept the Power PC arctiecture? Sure. But's not nearly that simple. Let's assume NX is 4 different consoles. You get the game running well on the NX Hardcore because it's pretty much just like the PS4. You still have to optimize the game for another 3 consoles. You still need to re-do the 3D models and textures for another 3 consoles. You still need to resample the audio at different bit rates for another 3 consoles You still need to test another 3 consoles. You still need to certify another 3 consoles. You still need to deal with the little quirks and nuances that each and every console in the history of consoles has, but for another 3 models.  You still need 4 times the developers kits for dozens, if not hundreds of game developers per studio, which is an additional investment of hundreds of thousands of dollars. What part of this is sounding easier to you?


if NX is x86 architecture like PCs, you know games can be optimized and scalable to lower resolutions.... even it is not that great. hence if NX has tablet, handheld, mobile, and hardcore console, it should accomoddate those things. if it is x86 because it would be easier to optimize it like how PC games are being optimized to the lowest possible resolution that the game can be.



curl-6 said:
BMaker11 said:

Nintendo has been on the decline since it entered the home console market. SNES sold less then NES. N64 sold less than SNES. GCN sold less than N64. Wii was a fluke/outlier, whether you choose to accept it or not, due to the "fad" of motion controls (I've said this time and time again: do you think the Wii, with its library looking awful similar to prior gens, would have sold so much without waggle? They still had your Mario, Zelda, MK, Metroid, etc. The only variable was waggle). Now that the fad of motion controls are over, Nintendo has to once again rely solely on its library, and as you can see, the trend they were following before began to resume with the WiiU. 

NX will sell even less than WiiU. 

People always try to come up with ridiculous justifications as to why Wii magically doesn't count.

Wii sold on its software. Wii Sports was software, so was Wii Fit. Motion controls are nothing by themselves, it was their application in compelling software that won over the masses.

So no, Nintendo has not been in decline since it entered the home console market, that is incorrect. 

I see you're amongst those who choose not to accept it. It's not a "ridiculous justification" when it's true. Think about it. Outside of Wii Sports (which you got regardless in purchasing a Wii. You couldn't *not* own this game, because it was packaged with every console for several years) and Wii Fit, what games were on the Wii? The standard "Nintendo library", post SNES. Mario, Zelda, Smash, Mario Party, MK, etc. with minimal 3rd party "big" games, and a ton of shovelware. 

Were these games, all of a sudden, so much better than their predecessors? Or did the allure of "omg, I get to actually control the game!" pull in so many consumers? The "compelling software" was very similar, overall, to prior gens, so, I reiterate, the only variable is waggle. 

Otherwise, why did Wii sales fall off a cliff after 2010? I'll answer that: the fad was over. And Nintendo sales "returned to normal". And that continued with the WiiU. And don't say they fell off because "Nintendo stopped supporting the system". Sony stopped supporting the PS2 after 2007, and it went on to sell like 50M more consoles. Because the games sustained the console. If the Wii "sold on its software", something similar would have happened post-2010, but that clearly didn't occur. 



potato_hamster said:
gabzjmm23 said:

it already happened, GC was high spec'd than PS2 that time. the thing that got Nintendo way off is the purple cube design which is too kiddie and nobody adopted into it.


Ohh yes. That's why the gamecube didn't catch on. It was purple. It also came in about 7 different colours. The accent colours for the Super Nintendo were pink and purple and that sold just fine last I checked.

you know that it is not just the colors and the lacking features Nintendo has right? and how PS2 became a front runner...



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curl-6 said:
BMaker11 said:

Nintendo has been on the decline since it entered the home console market. SNES sold less then NES. N64 sold less than SNES. GCN sold less than N64. Wii was a fluke/outlier, whether you choose to accept it or not, due to the "fad" of motion controls (I've said this time and time again: do you think the Wii, with its library looking awful similar to prior gens, would have sold so much without waggle? They still had your Mario, Zelda, MK, Metroid, etc. The only variable was waggle). Now that the fad of motion controls are over, Nintendo has to once again rely solely on its library, and as you can see, the trend they were following before began to resume with the WiiU. 

NX will sell even less than WiiU. 

People always try to come up with ridiculous justifications as to why Wii magically doesn't count.

Wii sold on its software. Wii Sports was software, so was Wii Fit. Motion controls are nothing by themselves, it was their application in compelling software that won over the masses.

So no, Nintendo has not been in decline since it entered the home console market, that is incorrect. 


I partially disagree, IMO It worked on both side.  Wii sport wouldn't  have sold the million it sold without wii mote and vice versa.  You can also argue that without wii mote, wii woud have been seen as another gamecube so it's not entirely correct to say that only software moved the consoles. heck it can be argue that the only differentiation between gamecube and wii was the wii mote so I believe wii mote was a bigger seller than his software.



gabzjmm23 said:
potato_hamster said:
gabzjmm23 said:
potato_hamster said:


Do you guys know anything about console video game development? Do you guys know anything about the costs associated with developing for more than one platform or spec? Do you guys have any idea have such a move would lead to the complete and utter abandonment of third parties? Anyone?

You guys need to let this idea go, and let it go quickly. Before you go saying something along the lines of games "scaling up and down". It simply does not work that way, and even if it did, it would require tremendously good developer tools, and Nintendo's developer tools are the absolute worst, and I really do mean the worst by a country mile. It's almost twice as hard to make a game run well on the Wii U than it is to make it run well on the PS4.  Now you need to make a game run well on three or four specs? Forget it. Absolutely forget it. Third parties wouldn't touch it with a 10 foot pole.


because you are talking about Wii U developer kit which is under IBM PowerPC against X1 and PS4 x86 architecture which is really different.  The topic is NX, if NX adopts the x86 archictecture, scaling down and up the graphics for power consumption and other things, it is possible. hence 3rd party would really come to NX.  If Nintendo decides to go to the x86 route.

Yes, I know the Wii U is Power PC based. I've made games for it. Guess what other two consoles are Power PC based? The PS3 and Xbox 360. The Wii was also PowerPC based for that matter. How did porting go from the Xbox 360 to Wii? Ohh I know, because I did it. Many times. It's absolutely terrible.  As it turns out, you couldn't just "scale the game down". You're acting as if the CPU's architecture is the primary problem. I can promise you it isn't. You don't simply make a PS4 game and "scale it down" slightly to for the Xbox one, even though the X1 is slightly underpowered compared to the PS4. In fact, each console's architecture is different by just enough that it's actually a bigger pain in the ass to get games running well on both consoles than one might think. Go ahead and read up on any of the big multi-platform third parties talk about developing for both the X1 and PS4. Let me know when you find one that describes it as developing for one and just "scaling it up or down" depending on the console. I won't hold my breath.

Even if Nintendo were to adopt an x86 architecture going forward for their Nintendo NX 3+ consoles, it would still be a royal pain to port to the NX. Would it be a bigger pain in the ass if they kept the Power PC arctiecture? Sure. But's not nearly that simple. Let's assume NX is 4 different consoles. You get the game running well on the NX Hardcore because it's pretty much just like the PS4. You still have to optimize the game for another 3 consoles. You still need to re-do the 3D models and textures for another 3 consoles. You still need to resample the audio at different bit rates for another 3 consoles You still need to test another 3 consoles. You still need to certify another 3 consoles. You still need to deal with the little quirks and nuances that each and every console in the history of consoles has, but for another 3 models.  You still need 4 times the developers kits for dozens, if not hundreds of game developers per studio, which is an additional investment of hundreds of thousands of dollars. What part of this is sounding easier to you?


if NX is x86 architecture like PCs, you know games can be optimized and scalable to lower resolutions.... even it is not that great. hence if NX has tablet, handheld, mobile, and hardcore console, it should accomoddate those things. if it is x86 because it would be easier to optimize it like how PC games are being optimized to the lowest possible resolution that the game can be.


No. I can't state enough how factually incorrect you are. Developing for PCs is incredibly different from developing for consoles. It's not that simple as "it should do this" because you can't think of a good reason why it can't.



potato_hamster said:
gabzjmm23 said:


if NX is x86 architecture like PCs, you know games can be optimized and scalable to lower resolutions.... even it is not that great. hence if NX has tablet, handheld, mobile, and hardcore console, it should accomoddate those things. if it is x86 because it would be easier to optimize it like how PC games are being optimized to the lowest possible resolution that the game can be.


No. I can't state enough how factually incorrect you are. Developing for PCs is incredibly different from developing for consoles. It's not that simple as "it should do this" because you can't think of a good reason why it can't.

are you a console developer? 
 we are a bit off topic, since the thread is about if NX would flop if would release in 2016. it might but if Nintendo uses x86 and hide their aces and collaborate 3rd parties to have games for it at launch with a great Zelda and Mario. then it would be awesome.....



BMaker11 said:
curl-6 said:

People always try to come up with ridiculous justifications as to why Wii magically doesn't count.

Wii sold on its software. Wii Sports was software, so was Wii Fit. Motion controls are nothing by themselves, it was their application in compelling software that won over the masses.

So no, Nintendo has not been in decline since it entered the home console market, that is incorrect. 

I see you're amongst those who choose not to accept it. It's not a "ridiculous justification" when it's true. Think about it. Outside of Wii Sports (which you got regardless in purchasing a Wii. You couldn't *not* own this game, because it was packaged with every console for several years) and Wii Fit, what games were on the Wii? The standard "Nintendo library", post SNES. Mario, Zelda, Smash, Mario Party, MK, etc. with minimal 3rd party "big" games, and a ton of shovelware. 

Were these games, all of a sudden, so much better than their predecessors? Or did the allure of "omg, I get to actually control the game!" pull in so many consumers? The "compelling software" was very similar, overall, to prior gens, so, I reiterate, the only variable is waggle. 

Otherwise, why did Wii sales fall off a cliff after 2010? I'll answer that: the fad was over. And Nintendo sales "returned to normal". And that continued with the WiiU. And don't say they fell off because "Nintendo stopped supporting the system". Sony stopped supporting the PS2 after 2007, and it went on to sell like 50M more consoles. Because the games sustained the console. If the Wii "sold on its software", something similar would have happened post-2010, but that clearly didn't occur. 

You can make any excuse you want, bottom line Wii did not decline from Gamecube, so your claim that Nintendo has been in perpetual decline is wrong.

And Wii Sports was bundled with the Wii precisely because it was compelling, desirable software. If your theory was true, only motion-centric games would have sold well on Wii, but that is clearly not the case.



Yes actually. I have my name in PS2, PS3, PS4, PS VIta , Xbox 360, Xbox One, Wii, Wii U, Nintendo DS, iOS and Android games over a 5 year span. I've made ports of games from the PS3/X360 to PS2, as well as a PS3/X360 port to Vita that was canned before release.

It's not nearly as simple as "changing the architecture" to convince third parties to come back. The arcitecture is a minor factor in why third parties have all but abandoned Nintendo home consoles. People seem to forget that the PS1 and PS2 architecture was radically different and very difficult to develop on, but the third party support for those consoles speaks for itself.