2 posts below the post I just quoted.

Ah. ok. Sorry if I was annying to you. 

It's going to do well in relation to Wii U's user base. But it won't move that many consoles.

Not all games need to sell 3M copies to be seen as doing well. It's all relative to the developer's financial investment. Not all games need to sell Grand Theft Auto levels to recoup and turn a profit.

Well isn't this statement full of BS?

Captain toad was 2015 for Europe. Kirby is in Japan and NA. Mario Party 10 is in all. Splatoon is in all. Xenoblade X is in Japan.

We still have Xenoblade X, Devil's Third, Fatal Frame V, Star Fox U, Mario Maker, Mario&Sonic @Rio Olympic games, Project Treasure and a whole lot more. Don't even start with that crap.

It'll do well. Just not super well

it wont move alot of HW but it will sell ok among the current users

They've said it all

Well, I am from North America, so keep that in mind when I say these circumstances.

So far, this first half has been really poor. I do have toads treasure tracker (my brother mainly plays it, but I still have my moments with it), but not only is that a budget title, it came out last december for us (source: I bought it for my brother as a christmas gift).

Kirby is likewise a budget title, so I don't consider it a big release, a good release maybe, but not a big one.

Mario party 10 is fairly big no doubt (not interested in it, but I will not argue it)

and splatoon is an overly priced budget title here that does not launch with all features yet.

As far as we know, aside from the completed xenoblade and fatal frame, the rest of the games are just as confirmed 2015 as the legend zelda wii u.

Don't get me wrong, I have a wii u, but so far I have mainly used it for backlog (metroid prime). This year has been so far really depressing in light of bloodborne, project cars, the witcher 3, and more that are confirmed to come during summer (batman). So using that logic, splatoon seems like a small oasis to wii u owners who have been suffering in the drought this year

That level of splash are causing only games with blood, violence and realistic graphics. For game that dont have blood, violence and realistic graphics, I think Splatoon cause very good splash.

It does matter how game is sells on launch, Pikmin 3 was sold around 120k first week, Xenoblade was sold around 95k first week, and for Splatoon we know it sold around 125k first day.

Also, Splatoon targeting much wider audence than games like Pikmin 3 and Xenoblade. Splatoon is game for everyone, from 5-95 and why Nintendo is targeting Mario Kart and Smash audience with very strong marketing.

You think it will sell 300-400k in first week, but we already know that in Japan is probably around 150k, so you think for rest of world will sell only 150-250k!?

Splatoon will have very good legs because of free content and marketing that goes with it. And no, Splatoon don't look like Indie game, especially to people that played Test Demo or know more informations about game like a Wii U owners.

Splatoon easily could reach 2m at end of year.

Its actually selling HW, in japan it seems to be a system seller