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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Last Gen Sold 280m Consoles. How much will this gen sell? Predictions

teigaga on 06 May 2015
Ryng_Tolu said:
GamechaserBE said:

History repeats itself:

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=24567

No, not this time... ALL console are selling worst than all people expect as for now.

2011 / 2013 prediction for 3DS: 100,000,000 to 160,000,000, some people predict 40,000,000 to 70,000,000 for Vita and Wii U... and we all know what is happen.

This gen will be the opposite of last gen, with all console to doinng worse than the people expect.

Those expectations are from early in the gen or before it properly started, I'm sure people thought PS3 would do 100m+ back in 2006. That thread is from 2008, so 2-3 years into the generation.



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teigaga on 06 May 2015
Ryng_Tolu said:
celador said:


Your X1 prediction is way too low, what do you expect to happen to the system?

Is not my prediction low, is your prediction too big.

30,000,000 is waaaaaaaaaaaaaay more realistic than 50,000,000, not even talk about 60,000,000...

I have a better question,n what DO YOU expect to the sistem? can you write your prediction Year on year?

30m is not "waaaaaaaaaaaaaay" more realistic then 50m, considering the most realistic figure is 40m :p

worse case scenario:

2015: 7m
2016: 8m
2017: 6m
2018: 4m
2019:2m

LT:38m

The Majority of the X1 sales come from US and that market isn't suddenly going to turn its back when the X1 is getting better in Q3/4 and PS4 arguably weaker, the worst case scenario is that the X1 never beat 2013 numbers. I don't see any potential for it to see a huge sudden drop, worst case is a slow decline but games will offset this. I don't know any system that has peaked before recieving its biggest games and the X1 hasn't recieved that yet.



baloofarsan on 06 May 2015

 

  • Casuals are gone: approx. -80 millions.
  • Better quality (No RROD): approx. -10 millions.
  • Alternatives to mediaplayer existing: approx. -10 millions.
  • PC is realistic economical alternative: approx. -10 millions.
  • Shorter generation (less than seven years): approx. -10 millions.
  • Bigger market (China, South-America): approx. +10 millions.
  • End of console war (PS4 becomes the standard for may years): approx. +10 millions.
  • VR becomes a hit: approx. +10 millions.


Well that sums up to approx. 100 millions less than last gen.

 



Mythmaker1 on 06 May 2015

Given what we know right now, I'll say ~150 million total.

90-95 million for PS4
40-45 million for XB1
15-20 million for WiiU

Until something comes along to shake things up in a big way, I think those are some reasonable expectations.



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zorg1000 on 06 May 2015
Turkish said:

PS4: 110-120M
Xbone: 50-60M
Wii U: 15-20M

Between 180-200M combined. Reasons for decrease: Wii's loss of non-gamers. Traditional gaming will stay flat compared to last gen.


Flat for the 3rd consecutive generation if excluding the casuals from Wii

PS2+XB+GC=roughly 200 million



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Ryng on 06 May 2015
teigaga said:
Ryng_Tolu said:

No, not this time... ALL console are selling worst than all people expect as for now.

2011 / 2013 prediction for 3DS: 100,000,000 to 160,000,000, some people predict 40,000,000 to 70,000,000 for Vita and Wii U... and we all know what is happen.

This gen will be the opposite of last gen, with all console to doinng worse than the people expect.

Those expectations are from early in the gen or before it properly started, I'm sure people thought PS3 would do 100m+ back in 2006. That thread is from 2008, so 2-3 years into the generation.

The 40,000,000 / 80,000,000 PSVita and Wii U was predict in 2013... when PSvita was selling super badly by one year, and Wii U after a succes launch, 3 badly month.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=157842&page=1

Damn, some people have predict Wii U and PSVita at +120,000,000!!!

The same for 3DS....

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=167730

Some people have predict 165,000,000... in September 2013.



Ryng on 06 May 2015
teigaga said:
Ryng_Tolu said:

Is not my prediction low, is your prediction too big.

30,000,000 is waaaaaaaaaaaaaay more realistic than 50,000,000, not even talk about 60,000,000...

I have a better question,n what DO YOU expect to the sistem? can you write your prediction Year on year?

30m is not "waaaaaaaaaaaaaay" more realistic then 50m, considering the most realistic figure is 40m :p

worse case scenario:

2015: 7m
2016: 8m
2017: 6m
2018: 4m
2019:2m

LT:38m

The Majority of the X1 sales come from US and that market isn't suddenly going to turn its back when the X1 is getting better in Q3/4 and PS4 arguably weaker, the worst case scenario is that the X1 never beat 2013 numbers. I don't see any potential for it to see a huge sudden drop, worst case is a slow decline but games will offset this. I don't know any system that has peaked before recieving its biggest games and the X1 hasn't recieved that yet.

The truly worst scenario:

2015: 7,000,000

2016: 6,000,000

2017: 3,500,000

2018: 1,500,000

Lifetime: 29,000,000



Paatar on 06 May 2015
Ryng_Tolu said:
celador said:


Your X1 prediction is way too low, what do you expect to happen to the system?

Is not my prediction low, is your prediction too big.

30,000,000 is waaaaaaaaaaaaaay more realistic than 50,000,000, not even talk about 60,000,000...

I have a better question,n what DO YOU expect to the sistem? can you write your prediction Year on year?


How is 30m more realistic than 50m? Xbox One is outpacing the 360 and with not even all its games out yet, (like Halo 5 and etc) I highly doubt that it will be closer to 30m than 50m.



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Ryng on 06 May 2015
Paatar said:
Ryng_Tolu said:

Is not my prediction low, is your prediction too big.

30,000,000 is waaaaaaaaaaaaaay more realistic than 50,000,000, not even talk about 60,000,000...

I have a better question,n what DO YOU expect to the sistem? can you write your prediction Year on year?


How is 30m more realistic than 50m? Xbox One is outpacing the 360 and with not even all its games out yet, (like Halo 5 and etc) I highly doubt that it will be closer to 30m than 50m.

Yes, and 3DS have sold more than the DS at the start of the gen... what is happen?

Look the XB360 sales in 2011 damn, 300,000 to 500,000 ALL NPD.

XBO is not going to sell this massive numbers, not even close.



teigaga on 06 May 2015
Ryng_Tolu said:
teigaga said:

30m is not "waaaaaaaaaaaaaay" more realistic then 50m, considering the most realistic figure is 40m :p

worse case scenario:

2015: 7m
2016: 8m
2017: 6m
2018: 4m
2019:2m

LT:38m

The Majority of the X1 sales come from US and that market isn't suddenly going to turn its back when the X1 is getting better in Q3/4 and PS4 arguably weaker, the worst case scenario is that the X1 never beat 2013 numbers. I don't see any potential for it to see a huge sudden drop, worst case is a slow decline but games will offset this. I don't know any system that has peaked before recieving its biggest games and the X1 hasn't recieved that yet.

The truly worst scenario:

2015: 7,000,000

2016: 6,000,000

2017: 3,500,000

2018: 1,500,000

Lifetime: 29,000,000

don't see what would warrant this especially the almost 50% drop in 2017.

So a $199-299 pricetag, Gears 4, Elderscrolls 7 and Grand Theft Auto 6 and ALL the other third party games aren't going to move hardware? Or is everyone in the states suddenly going to side with Playstation? I'll agree to disagree here