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Forums - Gaming - Last Gen Sold 280m Consoles. How much will this gen sell? Predictions

Paatar on 06 May 2015
JRPGfan said:
sales2099 said:

200 million tops.

- Where Wii tapped into a new demographic, there is no such thing happening this time.
- PS4 will sell so well that it will actually choke the potential from Xbox One/WiiU, where as all 3 thrived last gen.
- Nintendo/MS will be frustrated with sales this gen to the point where they prematurely start a new gen, getting a head start on PS5 and thus cutting PS4's lifespan short.

Fun fact: MS made the (now evident) mistake of waiting 8 (8!!!!) years since 360's launch to launch the Xbox One. This was due to sustain its profitability. MS in the 6th gen waited only 4 years to drop its first console, due to severe lack of profitability in part to the clear monopoly of the PS2.

This gen could end as early as 2017.....either Nintendo or MS could jump the gun. Let that sink in :P


Either?

NO...

Its pretty clear that Nintendo is going to be the one thats first to it..... However its going to be barely any faster than the PS4.

(nintendo dont spend enough on hardware $, or accept recouping costs from subscriptions & software, ontop of that they might have a expensive part like the gamepad sold with the consol).

 

Thats how I see it.

Late 2016 / early 2017  Nintenod releases a new consol, a tiny bit stronger than the PS4.

 

 

*edit :


People predicting under 30million for Xbox one sales.... seriously? I just dont see it doing that badly.

I personally see a November 2017 release date for the new home console. That way the Wii U has a 5 year lifetime like every other home console (except for some like the Wii, which had 6)



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Skullwaker on 06 May 2015

PS4: 100m
XBO: 45m
Wii U: 20m
Total: 165m

Sharp decline from last gen.



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The_BlackHeart__ on 06 May 2015

It will not. I expect both PS4 and XB1 to surpass their fathers.

But the Wii U is going to dishonor the family.

WiiU - 25 m
PS4 - 120m
XB1 - 60 m



The_BlackHeart__ on 06 May 2015

Honestly it depends. If Nintendo releases a new -competitive- console in 2016. The Wii U may not even reach 20m lifetime.

When it comes to PS4 doubling sales on the XB1, I totally exaggerated lol



binary solo on 06 May 2015

~100M for PS4
~45M for Xb one
~20M for WIi U

=165M + 15% upwards margin for error --> max 190 million.



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teigaga on 06 May 2015
JRPGfan said:
If MS does a new consol before 2019 they are shooting themselfs in the foot.
You dont want to jump the gun on these things.

It needs to match up to either a new process node, or new tech release, or atleast be close to the competitor so you dont end up to far behinde when they come out with theirs.


I don't think this is true at all. MS could easily establish themselves a base of non native Xbox users if they launch a new system in late 2017 that is significantly more powerful then PS4. Hardcore console gamers may very well move to the system if huge third party games like  GT6 and Elderscrolls 6 are running on it outputting superior graphics+performance then the PS4 and PS5 is nowhere in sight. The established Xbox fans will be there of course and their loyalship isn't down to being the most powerful otherwise X1 wouldn't have sold 10m in its first 13months.

By 2017, 14nm chips will be available alongside "next gen" AMD CPU/GPU technology and HBM RAM.

Not to compare Xbox brandpower to Playstation but PS1/PS2 shows that once you're on a role, having slightly less pretty games then a new competitor isn't going to bring your momentum to a hault.

If microsoft can deliver software which can deliver graphics that "look" similar to Epics recent UE4 kite Demo then it doesn't matter too much how much more impressive the PS5 graphics are as Xbox10 will still be a huge leap and diminishing will make PS5 look only marginally better.

Unless they have a gimmick up their sleeves, arriving early is the only way to securely gain audience, otherwise they just have to hope that sony messes up like they did with the PS3 launch.



itsFizz on 06 May 2015

I think we will see an in between of gen 5 and 6. The 5th gen(ps/saturn/n64) sold 146m while we saw growth in the 6th gen to a cummulative 213m (Ps2/DC/GC/Xbox). My guess would be an overall sell through of ~180m
Ps4: 100m
XBone: 62m
WiiU: 18m



      
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IamAwsome on 06 May 2015

Total: ~160M

PS4:  > 90M (Could be more if it's a success in China)

XB1: ~ 45M

Wii U: 14M 

Last gen was an unusually long gen, and I don't expect this gen to be the same. I think Nintendo's next console will get revealed in 2016 with a launch in 2017 with others following in 2018 creating a 5-6 yearish span between the console launches that was common in the past. The market as a whole is shrinking from last gen because of casuals, etc. 



smarterchild on 06 May 2015

i think less on wii and xbox than last gen and a bit more on ps4 than last gen.. A ton more on people move to PC. I have 2 ps4 so i'm not a fan boy it's just the way things are going.. I



Ganoncrotch on 06 May 2015
JayWood2010 said:

 Last generation the PS360/Wii sold 291 Million consoles.  I roundedeach btw.


Wii - 101m
PS3 - 85m
X360 - 85m

But what about this generation.  So far PS4 is off to a record breaking pace, and XBO is outpacing the X360.  I however do believe this generation will be shorter than last that may cut their legs short.  The WiiU is selling abysmal compared to the Wii so this will make a big difference in the outcome, but what do you all think?  How many home consoles will be sold this generation?


85*2=170

170+101= ?

Unless 20 million Ouya's sold last year? :D



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