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Forums - Sales - Cognitive dissonance: Wii U won't reach 25 million, but PS3 will reach Wii lifetime.

wrong on both counts



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sc94597 said:
Materia-Blade said:

If you underestimate wii u, sure. remember it still didn't get a proper price cut. It can sell much more than 4.5m a year.

The gamecube had a many price-cuts, and very fast. The console was at $99 half way in its life. It didn't help the Gamecube. I expect the Wii U to be anywhere between 18 - 22 million. 


Even that seems overly optimistic at this point. :



Current gaming platforms - Switch, PlayStation 4, Xbox One, Wii U, New 3DS, PC

Materia-Blade said:
DialgaMarine said:
At one point, I believed it was possible for PS3 to, not necessarily beat the Wii, but to at least pass 100 million units. I guess I can see it happening, but PS3 would have to maintain that 3.6 million-ish per year, for at least 4 more years, for even that to happen, and I don't think it can do that. PS2 had that continuing momentum because of PS3's rocky start. PS4 has been fortunate enough to have an amazing start, and that's only gonna make the PS3's chances even slimmer.

For Wii-U, unless it starts tracking above GC numbers, I can't see it selling more than 20 million lifetime, and that would be pushing it, given the announcement of NX and even Nintendo seemingly slowly giving up.

"and that would be pushing it, given the announcement of NX and even Nintendo seemingly slowly giving up."

NX wasn't announced, it's probably a handheld and please show me evidence of nintendo "slowly giving up".

 I'm mostly thinking that way because of how drastically Nintendo's vision for Wii-U has changed. It went from being the "hard core" console to being more child friendly (let's be honest about those ads here) to being just Nintendo. Not sure how else to put it lol. Iwata himself admited Wii-U was a secondary and only really there for Nintendo games. It's like they're gonna go through with whatever plans they have, then ditch the Wii-U at the first oppurtune moment. Just my perception.





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Livewire said:
wrong on both counts

You think the Wii U will reach 25 million and PS3 101 million? Or are you negating a negative? 



PenguinZ said:
sc94597 said:

The gamecube had a many price-cuts, and very fast. The console was at $99 half way in its life. It didn't help the Gamecube. I expect the Wii U to be anywhere between 18 - 22 million. 


Even that seems overly optimistic at this point. :

9.2 million + 4 million (with price-cut and up 20% yoy - Wii U sold 3.6 million last year, so 4.2 million for 2015 is certainly possible with a price cut) + 3 million (another price cut  in 2016) + 2 million (2017 - console replacement will release at end of 2017) = 18 million minimum. Not really overly optimistic. 



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as many have said before. Neither will happen. This was already pretty obvious 12 months ago.



I don't think PS3 will pass the Wii. But anyway, your logic is flawed because a lot of things can happen. PS3 is currently at a stable situation. Its successor is already out and basically everything that can damage its sales already happened, so it will keep this constant downward spiral until the end of its lifetime.

The Wii U could see a decrease on its sales based on a successor (maybe NX), making its sales take a nosedive. Besides that, we can't affirm that the U won't be discontinued before the PS3. We can still suppose that PS3 sales slowdown may follow a less aggressive pattern after the initial shock caused by the PS4.



sc94597 said:
Materia-Blade said:
sc94597 said:

It isn't enough for the PS3 to decline, the Wii U must incline. And unless a redesign rejuvenizes it, I can't see that happening. 

How about this way? Wii U sales aren't related to ps3. If a person thinks wii u will sell x amount of units, this person doesn't have to think anything about ps3 sales. ps3 has been declining and will keep doing so, while wii u is up yoy.

And Wii U will peak this year. Even being up YoY the Wii U has sold about as much to date as the PS3 in 2015 (if not a little less.) Considering how Wii U will also start declining in 2016, unless one believes it will decline at a slower rate than the PS3 (which has no historical precendence - Sony platforms have always had greater legs than Nintendo ones) then we can estimate that their lifetime sales from this point until the end will likely be close. 

Well that's still debatable. Wouldn't be surprised if it's down YoY once we hit June/July.



Wii U won't hit 25 million, but I think it can still do 20 million. PS3 will not catch up to the Wii though.



Barozi said:
sc94597 said:
Materia-Blade said:
sc94597 said:

It isn't enough for the PS3 to decline, the Wii U must incline. And unless a redesign rejuvenizes it, I can't see that happening. 

How about this way? Wii U sales aren't related to ps3. If a person thinks wii u will sell x amount of units, this person doesn't have to think anything about ps3 sales. ps3 has been declining and will keep doing so, while wii u is up yoy.

And Wii U will peak this year. Even being up YoY the Wii U has sold about as much to date as the PS3 in 2015 (if not a little less.) Considering how Wii U will also start declining in 2016, unless one believes it will decline at a slower rate than the PS3 (which has no historical precendence - Sony platforms have always had greater legs than Nintendo ones) then we can estimate that their lifetime sales from this point until the end will likely be close. 

Well that's still debatable. Wouldn't be surprised if it's down YoY once we hit June/July.

It might go down for a few months after Mario Kart's anniversary, but with an expected price-cut it should be brought back up.