zorg1000 said:
I have a feeling he's going to cling to the idea of Wii U winning until the bitter end and once Nintendo fully announces their next console, the excuse will be that Nintendo could have won but they instead decided to move on to bigger/brighter things. |
Easy there. It's getting a bit personal.
Monster Hunter: pissing me off since 2010.
Mummelmann said:
So, the Wii U has sold about 105k for January and February this year while the PS4 has sold about 240k in the same space. I did say that the PS4 had a slow start in Japan, which it did, it also released in February, as opposed to December, which is also a great advantage, not to mention the lack of any proper Japan centric software at the beginning (Wii U had NSMBU from the start). It is now starting to move for real and there is nothing indicating an imminent collapse in sales here. Aligned sales in the first 12 months are not the key to seeing the future sales situation if one is growing and one is heavily down after this period, this is not how sales analysis works, it reminds me of the whole "Wii is tracking the PS2 launches aligned, will outsell it for sure!" The Wii U sold 1.26 million in its first 12 months on the Japanese market and has sold around 980k in the 15 months following that, meaning that it is down rather heavily in Japan, despite having its biggest franchises out already, meanwhile the PS4 has not had a price cut yet, it has yet to release any of its biggest franchises and it is showing signs of healthy yoy growth so far, which means there will be a convergence point in the future where the Wii U on the way down and PS4 on the way up will inevitably meet and the PS4 will take the lead. For that not to happen; either the Wii U will need a resurgence in Japan, for no good reason at all, there is not a single indicator anywhere that this is likely or even possible or the PS4's sales would need to shrink and fade, which is also a really, really long stretch. So, seeing as you claim that it is merely my opinion that the PS4 will take the lead; do you sincerely believe that the Wii U will win Japan despite the sales already heading down at a rapid pace and the biggest hitters being released? Will Zelda save it? I mean; honestly, there has to be a point in time where you start applying logic and realism to your posts and 2015 will be a tough year if you keep clinging to these notions of yours. |
"So, the Wii U has sold about 105k for January and February this year while the PS4 has sold about 240k in the same space."
On an excepcional period where ps4 got a lot of releases and wii u got 2 games. if that was standard, we could talk, but it isn't.
your the second paragraph, you talk about the biggest franchises being out. well, it has SOME of it's biggest franchises and those will keep selling software and hardware, but you can't just ignore the games yet to come. you talk about pricecut but I don't think wii u got one either.
then "it has yet to release any of its biggest franchises and it is showing signs of healthy yoy growth so far, which means there will be a convergence point in the future where the Wii U on the way down and PS4 on the way up will inevitably meet and the PS4 will take the lead."
showing signs of yoy growth on an exceptional period with many releases means yoy growth on an exceptional period with many releases . for it to mean a "convergence point" it would take continous high sales of ps4 and low sales of wii u.
"For that not to happen; either the Wii U will need a resurgence in Japan, for no good reason at all, there is not a single indicator anywhere that this is likely or even possible" except games and the very pricecut you mentioned for ps4. wii u still has many releases that will help it's sales. how much they will help is yet to be seen.
"or the PS4's sales would need to shrink and fade, which is also a really, really long stretch."
For ps4 to shrink and fade, first it has to grow and keep it. As I said 2 times in this post, it just got a lot of games recently. The long stretch is thinking ps4 will keep it's current weekly sales without constant releases.
PS4 should sell a little less or about the same as PS3 in the long term.
Wii U is going to sell less than the GameCube in Japan, which is Nintendo's wort selling console in Japan.
So there's not really a big hurdle for Sony to overcome, it will just take a little time, that's all.
The new 3D Zeldas aren't even that big in Japan, neither is console Animal Crossing, so those two things ain't saving the Wii U in Japan. If it was happening it had to happen with Smash and Mario Kart.
zorg1000 said:
I think people are wrong to assume this. Currently Wii U is a $299 console that gets about 8-10 major exclusive per year, meaning unless ur a huge fan of Nintendo-published titles, that's not enough. People might be interested in Wii U as a secondary console but it's price to games ratio isn't right for that. Now let's say Nintendo's next console is $249 and gets 20+ Nintendo-published titles per year, that instantly becomes a much, much stronger candidate as a secondary console. Even the handheld side benefits because currently 3DS gets about 12-16 Nintendo-published titles per year, going up to 20+ titles per year is still an improvement. Maybe they will lose out a bit on dual device owners but the potential to attract new consumers could cancel that out. |
I don't think that Nintendo could have that many games per year. And if it could, it would probably make a few of them fail - unless there really was diversity.
They should use that extra manpower to make bigger projects more appealing to XB and PS fans. Even if in the end they only got 12 or so games per year.
Add a few published games to create even more diversity: a Hyrule Warriors 2, a DQ spinoff, etc.
At this point, dual owners are the minority. What they could potentially lose from that they would gain on profitability and XB and PS fans who would never touch an handheld anyway but would buy a Nintendo home console if it had their type of games.
DélioPT said:
Add a few published games to create even more diversity: a Hyrule Warriors 2, a DQ spinoff, etc. At this point, dual owners are the minority. What they could potentially lose from that they would gain on profitability and XB and PS fans who would never touch an handheld anyway but would buy a Nintendo home console if it had their type of games. |
Well the thing is, Nintendo has been pretty consistant on the total number of games they publish per year (North American releases).
1998-21 games
2003-25 games
2008-20 games
2013-29 games
25 games per year give or take despite development time/costs rising and games becoming more ambitious.
When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.
zorg1000 said:
1998-21 games 2003-25 games 2008-20 games 2013-29 games 25 games per year give or take despite development time/costs rising and games becoming more ambitious. |
I saw a few months ago their catalog for the GC and Wii period and it was substantial, even just considering 1st and 2nd party games. But i didn't realise their average was that high.
So, let's assume that every year they can get 20 games (includes published titles aswell). Then they will really need to touch genres they never touched or haven't touched in a long time.
To me that's the only way to create a more interesting platform.
Heck, even if they just develop 12 or 13, but can, each year, deliver their own CoD, Destiny, Assassin's Creed, Gran Turismo, etc, than that would be killer.
And i'm not talking about yearly sequels - although, if those games found success, you could have sequels - mind you!
That's why i like the Fusion idea: it forces Nintendo to develop new franchises; touch new genres.
DélioPT said:
I saw a few months ago their catalog for the GC and Wii period and it was substantial, even just considering 1st and 2nd party games. But i didn't realise their average was that high. So, let's assume that every year they can get 20 games (includes published titles aswell). Then they will really need to touch genres they never touched or haven't touched in a long time. Heck, even if they just develop 12 or 13, but can, each year, deliver their own CoD, Destiny, Assassin's Creed, Gran Turismo, etc, than that would be killer. That's why i like the Fusion idea: it forces Nintendo to develop new franchises; touch new genres. |
Ya obviously just releasing more of the same games that 3DS/Wii U already have won't increase their consumer base. The unified concept is great because it really opens Nintendo to branch out and create new things, no longer will they need to release 2 entries of each of their major franchises.
Instead of a situation like this gen, where we got Mario Kart 7 for holiday 2011 then Mario Kart 8 in spring 2014, we could see something like Mario Kart NX holiday 2017 which will continue to be supported with DLC for the next 1-2 years followed by a completely new racing game in 2020, perhaps a revival of F-Zero or something along the lines of Nintendo's own version of Need for Speed. The same thing applies for other Nintendo series that typically see a seperate handheld and console release each generation.
If they can publish roughly 20 games per year and have a nice mix between low-budget eShop titles, mid-budget handheld experiences, and high-budget console experiences with a few new ip each year, that's a pretty amazing lineup.
When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.
| zorg1000 said: Ya obviously just releasing more of the same games that 3DS/Wii U already have won't increase their consumer base. The unified concept is great because it really opens Nintendo to branch out and create new things, no longer will they need to release 2 entries of each of their major franchises. Instead of a situation like this gen, where we got Mario Kart 7 for holiday 2011 then Mario Kart 8 in spring 2014, we could see something like Mario Kart NX holiday 2017 which will continue to be supported with DLC for the next 1-2 years followed by a completely new racing game in 2020, perhaps a revival of F-Zero or something along the lines of Nintendo's own version of Need for Speed. The same thing applies for other Nintendo series that typically see a seperate handheld and console release each generation. If they can publish roughly 20 games per year and have a nice mix between low-budget eShop titles, mid-budget handheld experiences, and high-budget console experiences with a few new ip each year, that's a pretty amazing lineup. |
Exactly!
In the last few years, Nintendo has overused franchises like Mario and even Zelda. This doesn't help those same franchises.
Bringing in new faces or genres is what they really need.
More of the same won't help Nintendo on the home console front.
Let's hope that Nintendo takes even a bigger step forward and decides on walking this path.
Sharing OSs and APis might help, but it will only go so far.
DélioPT said:
Exactly! In the last few years, Nintendo has overused franchises like Mario and even Zelda. This doesn't help those same franchises. Let's hope that Nintendo takes even a bigger step forward and decides on walking this path. |
Here's another scenario that I think is plausible
3DS+Wii U Mario platformers
New Super Mario Bros. 2/Super Mario 3D Land, 10-12 million each
New Super Mario Bros. U/Super Mario 3D World, 5-6 million each
Total, 30-36 million
NX Mario Platformers
New Super Mario Bros. 3, 10-12 million
Super Mario 3D World 2, 10-12 million
Super Mario Galaxy 3, 10-12 million
Total, 30-36 million
With a unified platform Nintendo can potentially sell the same amount of software with a smaller number of titles by not having select titles locked onto a platform with a low install base, while also offering up a bit more variety (3 seperate play styles vs 2 play styles among 4 games).
When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.
zorg1000 said:
Here's another scenario that I think is plausible 3DS+Wii U Mario platformers New Super Mario Bros. 2/Super Mario 3D Land, 10-12 million each New Super Mario Bros. U/Super Mario 3D World, 5-6 million each Total, 30-36 million NX Mario Platformers New Super Mario Bros. 3, 10-12 million Super Mario 3D World 2, 10-12 million Super Mario Galaxy 3, 10-12 million Total, 30-36 million With a unified platform Nintendo can potentially sell the same amount of software with a smaller number of titles by not having select titles locked onto a platform with a low install base, while also offering up a bit more variety (3 seperate play styles vs 2 play styles among 4 games). |
Or they could offer a remake each generation to bring back old favourites! :)
There's another side to it: instead of 6 promotional campaigns, you'd have 3 (= less money spent) + 3 budgets to achieve the same result as 6 budgets = Profitabilty!
Shareholders love profits... Nintendo like profits!
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