Mummelmann said:
So, the Wii U has sold about 105k for January and February this year while the PS4 has sold about 240k in the same space. I did say that the PS4 had a slow start in Japan, which it did, it also released in February, as opposed to December, which is also a great advantage, not to mention the lack of any proper Japan centric software at the beginning (Wii U had NSMBU from the start). It is now starting to move for real and there is nothing indicating an imminent collapse in sales here. Aligned sales in the first 12 months are not the key to seeing the future sales situation if one is growing and one is heavily down after this period, this is not how sales analysis works, it reminds me of the whole "Wii is tracking the PS2 launches aligned, will outsell it for sure!" The Wii U sold 1.26 million in its first 12 months on the Japanese market and has sold around 980k in the 15 months following that, meaning that it is down rather heavily in Japan, despite having its biggest franchises out already, meanwhile the PS4 has not had a price cut yet, it has yet to release any of its biggest franchises and it is showing signs of healthy yoy growth so far, which means there will be a convergence point in the future where the Wii U on the way down and PS4 on the way up will inevitably meet and the PS4 will take the lead. For that not to happen; either the Wii U will need a resurgence in Japan, for no good reason at all, there is not a single indicator anywhere that this is likely or even possible or the PS4's sales would need to shrink and fade, which is also a really, really long stretch. So, seeing as you claim that it is merely my opinion that the PS4 will take the lead; do you sincerely believe that the Wii U will win Japan despite the sales already heading down at a rapid pace and the biggest hitters being released? Will Zelda save it? I mean; honestly, there has to be a point in time where you start applying logic and realism to your posts and 2015 will be a tough year if you keep clinging to these notions of yours. |
"So, the Wii U has sold about 105k for January and February this year while the PS4 has sold about 240k in the same space."
On an excepcional period where ps4 got a lot of releases and wii u got 2 games. if that was standard, we could talk, but it isn't.
your the second paragraph, you talk about the biggest franchises being out. well, it has SOME of it's biggest franchises and those will keep selling software and hardware, but you can't just ignore the games yet to come. you talk about pricecut but I don't think wii u got one either.
then "it has yet to release any of its biggest franchises and it is showing signs of healthy yoy growth so far, which means there will be a convergence point in the future where the Wii U on the way down and PS4 on the way up will inevitably meet and the PS4 will take the lead."
showing signs of yoy growth on an exceptional period with many releases means yoy growth on an exceptional period with many releases . for it to mean a "convergence point" it would take continous high sales of ps4 and low sales of wii u.
"For that not to happen; either the Wii U will need a resurgence in Japan, for no good reason at all, there is not a single indicator anywhere that this is likely or even possible" except games and the very pricecut you mentioned for ps4. wii u still has many releases that will help it's sales. how much they will help is yet to be seen.
"or the PS4's sales would need to shrink and fade, which is also a really, really long stretch."
For ps4 to shrink and fade, first it has to grow and keep it. As I said 2 times in this post, it just got a lot of games recently. The long stretch is thinking ps4 will keep it's current weekly sales without constant releases.
