NX need a good launch preparation, marketing, PR, planing, and game, so time is not the problem here.

Ya PS4 sales may go back down during slow periods but it still has alot of big games to release, the like of Persona, Metal Gear Solid, Final Fantasy, Kingdom Hearts are all big releases and their will of course be more because PS4 has strong 3rd party support in Japan, something Nintendo does not.

Of course games like Xenoblade, Yoshi, Splatoon, etc. can cause spikes in sales but big Wii U games are too far and few between to cause sustained momentum. The last week of April has Xenoblade+new bundle+Dragon Quest X expansion, we can expect to see a strong week for Wii U but in the following weeks, expect to see the baseline drop until it's back to sub-10k.

Wii U has peaked in Japan, that's not really worth debating, 2014 sold less than 2013 despite titles like Mario Kart, Smash Bros, Donkey Kong, Hyrule Warriors, Bayonetta, Fatal Frame, Captain Toad and this year is down about 25% YoY thru the first quarter and it's very unlikely that's gonna change anytime soon.

Don't get me wrong, I love the Wii U, it's my console of choice and I have had a blast playing it but at some point we need to take our Nintendo goggles off and accept reality, Wii U is not and will not be a strong performer. 3-3.5 million lifetime in Japan sounds about right based on its sales trajectory while PS4 will likely double or even triple that due to Playstation consoles historically having much longer legs and vastly larger 3rd party support.

I understand what you are saying but we dont know for certain if the NX is merely a Steam like operating service or a dedicated console again.

The only thing I can think of if Nintendo do this is that despite it generating a lot of money, the internet will brand Nintendo as betraying its core fans and hardcore gamers by going to an incredibly casual market.

Again will make a lot of money but I for one would loathe such a set up.

yay 14 pages to learn that I should be happy with 7 games in 2 years lol. Fuck that. If they want people's money they need a continuous flow of big hitters or it will be just a Nintendo box for a diminishing crowd each gen.

If Nintendo can't manage to have enough games for Wii U, developing for 2 HD consoles then...

What we want to see won't always be what Nintendo needs.
As you mentioned, Nintendo had a bad transition between 2 SD consoles to 1 SD console+1HD console.
Even with the learning curve of HD development being gone, having two develop for a second HD console, plus a PS4 like console (development has to start at least 2 years prior to launch), will take it's toll on Nintendo. The transition for next gen will be even worse than what we saw during 2011 to 2013.
Not even sharing a OS and APIs will fix this situation on the long run.

As you said, ND is having trouble on a easier console to develop. Other companies are having trouble on easier to develop consoles.
That should be a sign that next gen, if there isn't a radical change development wise, things will get really bad.

Yep exactly why we need all games playable on each Nintendo device. I don't get why some people are so against the idea, it's not like the design/experience of games on 3DS & Wii U are vastly different.

Super Mario 3D Land vs Super Mario 3D World

New Super Mario Bros. 2 vs New Super Mario Bros. U

Ocarina of Time/Majora's Mask 3D vs Wind Waker HD

Donkey Kong Country Returns vs Tropical Freeze

Mario Kart 7 vs Mario Kart 8

Super Smash Bros. for 3DS vs Super Smash Bros. for Wii U

Xenoblade Chronicles 3D vs Xenoblade Chronicles X

Other games like Animal Crossing, Pikmin, Fire Emblem, Luigi's Mansion, Paper Mario are completely functional as handheld or console games.

Of course the Wii U games are for the most part bigger/better but wouldn't it be nice not having to own 2 seperate devices to get the full Nintendo experience? A single unified platform with 2-3 form factors that gets 20+ Nintendo-published titles per year sounds like a great device for fans.

So, the Wii U has sold about 105k for January and February this year while the PS4 has sold about 240k in the same space. I did say that the PS4 had a slow start in Japan, which it did, it also released in February, as opposed to December, which is also a great advantage, not to mention the lack of any proper Japan centric software at the beginning (Wii U had NSMBU from the start). It is now starting to move for real and there is nothing indicating an imminent collapse in sales here. Aligned sales in the first 12 months are not the key to seeing the future sales situation if one is growing and one is heavily down after this period, this is not how sales analysis works, it reminds me of the whole "Wii is tracking the PS2 launches aligned, will outsell it for sure!"

The Wii U sold 1.26 million in its first 12 months on the Japanese market and has sold around 980k in the 15 months following that, meaning that it is down rather heavily in Japan, despite having its biggest franchises out already, meanwhile the PS4 has not had a price cut yet, it has yet to release any of its biggest franchises and it is showing signs of healthy yoy growth so far, which means there will be a convergence point in the future where the Wii U on the way down and PS4 on the way up will inevitably meet and the PS4 will take the lead.

For that not to happen; either the Wii U will need a resurgence in Japan, for no good reason at all, there is not a single indicator anywhere that this is likely or even possible or the PS4's sales would need to shrink and fade, which is also a really, really long stretch.

So, seeing as you claim that it is merely my opinion that the PS4 will take the lead; do you sincerely believe that the Wii U will win Japan despite the sales already heading down at a rapid pace and the biggest hitters being released? Will Zelda save it? I mean; honestly, there has to be a point in time where you start applying logic and realism to your posts and 2015 will be a tough year if you keep clinging to these notions of yours.

I have a feeling he's going to cling to the idea of Wii U winning until the bitter end and once Nintendo fully announces their next console, the excuse will be that Nintendo could have won but they instead decided to move on to bigger/brighter things.

The time where a handheld experience was different than a home console experience is gone.
It probably happened with DS or 3DS, but now HH and HC games aren't really that different.

There might be a difference because some games will always play or feel better on a home console (Smash) than on a handheld (animal crossing), or vice versa, but that's normal.
With both consoles even sharing the same basic tech you won't really notice it that much. Actually, the market has shown that handheld owners have no problem in getting home console type of games, like Smash, for example, or others that you mentioned.

I think the main reason people are against it it's because they no longer get a differentiaton and that would "naturally" cause Nintendo to lose on one side (home console segment, primarily).
But they also foret that the days where Nintendo could actually support both consoles are gone. And they are gone because development has switched from 2D and 3D to just 3D - and HD development aswell.
It was easier for Nintendo to support 2 consoles at a time, because the handheld was either 2D or really old tech and Nintendo had that easily covered with small staff or ports, with the bulk of the staff being allocated to the home console which needed staff the most. That no longer happens and droughts are more noticable then ever - and bounded to get worse.

I think people are wrong to assume this. Currently Wii U is a $299 console that gets about 8-10 major exclusive per year, meaning unless ur a huge fan of Nintendo-published titles, that's not enough. People might be interested in Wii U as a secondary console but it's price to games ratio isn't right for that.

Now let's say Nintendo's next console is $249 and gets 20+ Nintendo-published titles per year, that instantly becomes a much, much stronger candidate as a secondary console.

Even the handheld side benefits because currently 3DS gets about 12-16 Nintendo-published titles per year, going up to 20+ titles per year is still an improvement.

Maybe they will lose out a bit on dual device owners but the potential to attract new consumers could cancel that out.